New Updated Spreadsheet and Filters for SET & FORGET Strategies
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Hello everyone,
I have continued adding data and I done a deep dive on new years day, changing odds and tweaking leagues. Below is my up to date spreadsheet along with the updated filters. Hope it can be of interest. If anyone can see anything that I am missing that could improve them, that would be great.
Kind regards Vince. -
@Alex-Rendell hello. Thanks for your reply, I have already tweaked both leagues and odds on all of the strategies except the lay the draw set and forget. The last deep dive I did into the strategies was back on January 1st. I think I will have to have another look into the leagues and odds to see if that improves it. But do it in a way that is not an obvious back fit.
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@Vince-Kavanagh looks like some of them still have promise, but with such small data sets, it's hard to tell whether or not you should ride them out or let them go. Have you looked into individual league performance within each system? That's something I'm very keen on, and am happy to take a look at this for you unless you'd like to incorporate that into your own sheets yourself (I highly recommend giving this a go!)
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Hello, sorry that it has been a while since I have posted. Hope everyone is well? I have just updated my spreadsheet up to the end of September. All my strategies seem to have flatlined, which is disappointing to me. I am asking for some advice because I have come to a crossroads with this. I think that I am going to get rid of the BBTS and also the over 3.5 goals strategies. I think that the only ones that I think could work going forward are the Away Elo, the over 2.5 goals and the Lay the Draw set and forget. Any feedback would be very helpful, if I am missing something that someone can see. I love doing this, and want to make some regular income to supplement my full time job as a postie. Just feel that I have lost my way a bit. Thanks. Spreadsheet below, thanks again.
Vinny.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pkkdiPkgoNJZmxlNsNWQYmkEoKKa-2BtmU7e42iR_S8/edit?gid=232011416#gid=232011416 -
@Arran-Shackell
Hello, I am sorry that I haven't replied sooner, I have just updated my spreadsheet for the last month and a half. I have still been doing the strategies, but just didn't input the results until now. The away strategy has started to even out a bit, which is frustrating. Here is my up to date spreadsheet. Sorry again for the delay in my reply. -
How is your back away strategy doing these days?
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@Vince-Kavanagh really interesting results, the thing is as annoying as past three months have been it's still well up overall and no month has been a massive loss. I guess the next couple of months are crucial to hopefully get it trending in the right direction.
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Hello everyone.
I have updated my spreadsheets up to the end of May. The last few months have not been great, also I have decided to put the Under 1.5 FHGs on hold because of the low odds. I have started testing a Set and Forget Lay the Draw strategy, which is looking promising (only 130 odd matches though).
The results of that can be found in the spreadsheet link below.
Hope everyone is well, also hope my spreadsheets can be of use. -
@Michael-Doering ok.... so after 15 minutes set the trade in?
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS no thats not what i mean. Lets say we have 10 Euro stake. Then i would split it into 4 parts , 2,5 each. Lets assume starting odd for 3.5 goals is 3.0. Then we play the odds 3.25, 3.5, 3.75 and 4. That would be 8.33% better odd by the first bet, 16.66 by the second, 24.99% by the third and 33.32 by the 4th bet. If all would be placed we would increase the odds over 20%. It would make the most sense in the higher goals market because the odds rising faster and we should have placed all bets in the first 15 minutes. Would you think its worth to try?
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@Michael-Doering hi mate, is where you see a high scoring game and you spread £100 for example over 3/4 markets? all in the FH? 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 and you cash out when the first goal goes in?
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@Vince-Kavanagh
I'll throw in a thought about the +3.5 goals strategy. If you set your bet to 2 or 4 parts and try to increase your average odds, then after 15 minutes you would already have over 20% higher odds. Yes, you would play fewer games, but at the same time you would lose less in games that score an early goal but don't end with at least 4. It would now be interesting to know how many games they scored over 3.5 goals and goals were scored before the 15th minute. -
@Vince-Kavanagh this is really interesting work, I've commented before on your ELO back away strategy, but a BTTS strategy is one really want to develop and use! I guess it goes back to my younger days of dropping into the local bookies on a Saturday morning and putting on a £2 goals galore coupon! Keep up the good work!
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Seems to becoming a common theme throughout Jan, where everyone is down somewhere. Winter blues on the players perhaps? Shouldn’t be on those salaries!
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Hello everyone, hope you are all well?
I have updated my results for January, not as good as I would have hoped for. The ELO Back Away team is down 11 points on the month for the first time. The others had a little profit, very minimal though, but overall a very slight profit combined. On to this month of Feb
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@Andrew-Gray Thank you. It would look more tidy if I could do that. Thanks for your help. Its a true refection of my results now, with the 2% commission off each bet. (I couldn't work it out, went on google sheets formula strategy generator) not very spreadsheet savey
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@Vince-Kavanagh Looks good as you've done but if you wanted it in one column you could just do:
=IF(I5=1, (G5-1)*0.98, -1)
That will work on all of your "back" strats. For lay ones you will have to reverse the equation to work out the liability lost when the lay "loses" and it's just 0.98 for every "win"
Hope that makes sense
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@Vince-Kavanagh I'm the sort of numpty who just does it manually
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@Andrew-Gray. Hi there sorry to message again. I think I have figured out a formula for the 2% deduction, will run through all my sheets and update in the next day or so. Thanks again for pointing this out to me.
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@Andrew-Gray I have tried to do that but it has come up error, shall I do another column next to it to get the -2% commission. I would prefer to work it out with just the one column though. Thanks if you can help.
