Test trading option for Lay O3,5
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Hello all...
Martin made two vidoes about the Set & Forget strategie Lay O3,5
One of them talk about trading option using UTF as an example.I test the first 100 placed trades in the spread sheet with 400 placed bets and around 61% strike ratio
After 100 trades i end up with an TIE and decide not to continue testing that option and skip the other variant.Test was made with time decay the first 10 min and cash out for 15 with 100 stake.
If an early goal within 10 min you back the lay and reduce the loss and create zero or free bet on Under 3,5The other variant would reduce the loses a little further using the following set up.
If an early goal with 10 min wait for half time and cash out for reduced loss if no more goals.
If an second goal within second half, cash out for reduced loss.
Both create reduced loss comparing to back/lay option where you wait for the final full time score.Summary
90 Wins
16 Losses
106 Total Trades
85% Strike Ratio
15/-86 (Avg Profit)-(Avg Loss)Cheers Patrik From Sweden
EDIT any suggestions are welcome and i can do further testing if the option has another angle.
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@Martin said in Test trading option for Lay O3,5:
@Patrik-Mellqvist is there an inplay angle with these?
Hello @Martin - is my overall feeling after a short sample, but I have compared with the Lay option and made my personal decision to continue with the Under 2.5 goals market as the profits on average and sometimes very high odds give some degree of value compared to the original, that is a simple conclusion after a couple of Set & Forget bets - I find the backing option with correct score and under goal market also being more flexible as I can place them on a pinnacle that allows winning punters.
So I am satisfied and decided to start staking £20 on Betfair after one month, starting Juli and £20 on Pinnacle.
Smarkets is not working as an option as they have a limited amount of leagues compared to the others.My personal opinion and instinct and the overall feeling is that my solution is a much better solution than the original with a large portion of improvement.
The idea and experiment with a solution for Lay U1.5 but using the correct score and over-goal market did not give expected performance when comparing to Lay O3.5 - the difference in performance is like day and night when looking at the charts and there is no need for a larger sample to see the strength difference in performance in swings and risk/reward ratio.See for yourself and let the output embrace you
@Martin I have another solution for the Lay U1.5 that produces +136 with the same placed bets.
But that approach I will at the moment keep for myself and I will run 10 or 20 to get a feel and estimation observation on the strength in the negative and positive swings to see if I can strengthen the backing option further or skip that idea.Cheers
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@Patrik-Mellqvist is there an inplay angle with these?
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Hello all, my instinct tells me with my estimation and feel of current progress that Lay O3.5 is superior in performance using my staking solution, In my opinion, the observation and reflection come from such a small swing into the negative opposite to what I should have encountered if laying that had been much more erratic and bumpy ride.
So that is exactly what I want, a smooth journey towards success and it suits my trading personality.
And I got this month's fee paid or returned plus some extra and feel comfortable saying that even not yet reaching the end of the month.
Also, backing at 2.72 average odds is not that bad, is a very good value when we take such small swings in comparison to the original.The Lay U1.5 with my staking solution is not breaking out from jail and is hard to stay within the green.
Even if I only have a short sample, so can I feel and observe that an average 1,54 odds range makes life harder than it has to be?
And comparing both is like night and day.
So I decided to skip or should I say pause that idea and not continue with the Set & Forget approach.Cheers
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@Patrik-Mellqvist said in Test trading option for Lay O3,5:
Disclaimer: This statement and comments and assumptions are experimental.
Another trading option for Thomaz Laying U1.5
Hint and for you to test out - run raw estimation test on GPT Chat - backing and suits Pinnacle/SBOBET and the Exchanges + maybe SpreadEX (not sure if they have correct score market and goal markets to make the set-up)
Cover the score lines 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-2, 2-1, and O3.5 Goal Market DUTCH ALL
Stake £10 Profit "Around" £4,7
Ratio 2 wins cover 1 lossGPT Chat does not include 3-0 and 0-3 score lines.
Strike ratio 72.5%
400 Placed Trades
Profit £4,7
Loss £10
Commission 5%
Around 4,5 ROI
RETURN £230
Around £20 a monthEDIT - I think the O1.5 had a price around 1,34 - so that is more tick value - but with one missing score-line - but as they are rare I reckon they will perform as well as Lay O3,5 option
I trust my instinct and approach where I feel the risk and reward ratio is much better with my option.
So I trade this live without further testing the already stats.The first picture shows the What If Laying Under 1.5 and where the risk 245 versus 95 payout is worse than my option. I trust the statistical assumption that the chosen score lines are overrepresented versus 3-0 and 0-3 which I reckon will produce rare and occasional losses, but at the same time the win ratio will be greater overall, my assumption and opinion with less variance.
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Disclaimer: This statement and comments and assumptions are experimental.
Another trading option for Thomaz Laying U1.5
Hint and for you to test out - run raw estimation test on GPT Chat - backing and suits Pinnacle/SBOBET and the Exchanges + maybe SpreadEX (not sure if they have correct score market and goal markets to make the set-up)
Cover the score lines 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-2, 2-1, and O3.5 Goal Market DUTCH ALL
Stake £10 Profit "Around" £4,7
Ratio 2 wins cover 1 lossGPT Chat does not include 3-0 and 0-3 score lines.
Strike ratio 72.5%
400 Placed Trades
Profit £4,7
Loss £10
Commission 5%
Around 4,5 ROI
RETURN £230
Around £20 a monthEDIT - I think the O1.5 had a price around 1,34 - so that is more tick value - but with one missing score-line - but as they are rare I reckon they will perform as good as Lay O3,5 option
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Here is something I will do - I notice that sometimes you get a selection on the Set & Forget for Laying O3,5 and at the same time qualify on the Gary SHG Filter and we know how strong that filter is with 97% at least one goal and 85% with at least two goals based upon 400 placed results.
So from now I will always double-check and skip if I get both to qualify.Cheers
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Just a hint - I know or have been told that 5-Dimes EU allows winning punters and Pinnacle - both work with this backing stake on both of them - just wanted to mention that as I will scaling up.
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Well, I want to contribute and at the same time be quiet as I don't want everyone to know about everything.
So I will not update this topic with more results and each one by themself and decide what they believe is a good solution or not - I could back-test this option with the results from the spreadsheet and will do so with 100 placed trades this weekend - my estimation is a great success and from there I will stop staking £10 and scaling up - but as there are some odd leagues sometimes with lower liquidity - even if the O2,5 has generally good margin I will use diversification and place £20 on Smarkets and £20 on Betfair and see if I can use the same set up at Pinnacle with another £20.I base the following decisions on the following estimations and facts.
If I remember correctly there are a little above 400 proven placed bets Laying O3,5 to a much more expensive cost than the trading solution I offer as a suggestion and the swings in the turnaround in odds are much larger margin favouring than the opposite.
For example, 4 losses and 3 wins would be a dramatic downswing using the original - but with my approach, you would have a positive result on the spreadsheet.
And the statistical assumption is that the scoreline 1-2 and 2-1 that create a small win or tie is proven to be more frequent and common scorelines than 3-0 and 0-3.
So for me, I will execute if I get a positive result after the weekend's testing and scaling up.And I also am conservative so with maybe £80 I reckon the up and down will be a smooth journey.
But to be on the sure side I will have £1000 on Smarket and my £1000 on Betfair so the % with be 4 as risk mitigation and pretty sure the filter and selection Lay O3,5 will perform very well.This is how I reflect and make my decisions based on the written text above.
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Updat, 4 loses and 3 wins and a small positive return on the result sheet, if i had made the original lay i would have been in the negative area - i see some value in the filter and odds selection with Unders as they give an higher return on investment then the lay bet.
The question is how that will be reduced due to the TIE when hitting the score lines 2-1 and 1-2.
Most of the time you do a small profit and not an TIE on them.
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Today games ... with very good odds on the Under 2.5 market.
I notice with yesterdays results that three loses and two wins almost gave an scratch result situation.
That is a nice way to look at things, but is in early stages, will be intressting to see how the small profits on the correct score market reduce the overall profits and how the Under higher profits perform comparing to the original approch.But my estimation and hunch tell me this way also is a winner, but profit wise i don't know yet if it will perform better or not - but i know alredy that it handle downswings better or varaince - it become obvios with yesterdays results and the reason for that is the profit is higher on the Unders with very good odds.
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@Patrik-Mellqvist cheers for this, following with interest!
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Update of staking variant using the Lay O3,5 Filter - Yesterdays results ...
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Hello - i assume many members has there own tools - but i have an Skewing & Dutch software that i will share.
I belive there is an Skewing dutch tool online - but don't remember where, it can be usfull in certian siutations.See attchment...
So the Dutch folder is complete and you extract.
The Skewing icon in the folder that you have to extract, do you put in the same folder as the Dutch folder.Now you can click on the base buttons, Dutch or Skewing and you get a window and calculation options.
For those who don't know what Skewing is you just do an dutch but maybe you want one score at the correct score line with certian odds to be zero and other score lines with a medium win and maybe one or two score lines with bigger profits - then the software show you what to stake to acomplich that with different odds options, so same as Dutching with variation.I use this with the todays trading to get the 2-1 and 1-2 score lines correct.
Here i will also explain the hack to bet below minium stake.
If you for example have an score line with the odds 9,4 to back.
Then you just change the odds to 1000 and no one will take that bet and you put in the minium stake.
For example £2 and place bet.Now it will not be taken and you can now add the amount you want to place to the current minimum stake £2.
Lets say you want to put £1,3 then you change the current stake to £3,3
And click on updateNow you will get two bets, one with £2 and one with £1,3
Cancel the £2 bet and updateNow you have the £1,3 bet left and just change the odds from 1000 to the current 9,4 and click update
Now the bet is taken with £1,3Trading Tools-20220918T091823Z-001.zip
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Here are some screenshots to show the placment for the Under 2,5 at amazing odds and scratch trade or small profit on the correct scores 2-1 and 1-2 - i dutch them with under the Betfair Minimum Stake - i can explain how you do that hack - just reply.
So lets see how this trading option for the Lay O3,5 Filter will work out
And i like that the profit is more then the downside, so not risking above £20 for £9,5 and get £13 for £10 or TIE
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Here is a hint to what i do and maybe some one want some inspiration and test and simulate the same.
But personally i skip that part as the method has positive ROI and have no time to waste.The following way might increase your overall profits for the selection filter Lay O3,5 and is a whole different angle using the Set & Forget strategi without Laying O3,5.
But you should test this first and not do what i do, because i can afford playing around with money and that is the luxury not everyone has.
So see the following as an theoretical option for Lay O3,5
Back Under 2,5 goals with 80%
Back the correct score lines 2-1 and 1-2 with 10% eachThats it
And today selection the back price for Under 2.5 goals was 2,44
And 1-2 at 15,5 and 2-1 at 9 to backI face one dilemma today as i stake £8 on Under and then i could not place £1 on the correct score lines.
But with Smarkets you don't have the £2 minimum - so i will deposit £1000 to Smarket.I know you can get around that and place £1 on Betfair - but i belive that if you use that hack ofthen you might get an warning, not sure.
So to make life easy i will place this on Smarket and run both Lay O3.5 and the other back placement.Main reason is that the Under odds are so high and the return is larger then the original approch.
If Under 2.5 and ties on correct score market produce more is to be reveiald after some real placed trades - but i am prepeard to risk and trade real money on that as my hunches many times are correct.Credits for the placment criteria goes to Ben who run the Ultimate Football Trading channel.
And yes i know that one score line as 0-3 and 3-0 is not covered, but those are more rare then common as the 2-1 and 1-2.Cheers Patrik
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@Alex-Rendell i dont think the stakes matter if i done small stakes the losses are to big for the profits, i dont think this is a plan for me
i will keep scouring till i find something that suits me -
@murdo-martin I think maybe you need to slow down a bit and maybe paper trade for a while or at least reduce your stakes!
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seems a big hit considering i got 2 back bets matched
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minus 14 points
