Lay The Underdog
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Hello Martin i would like to ask one question about the strategi - Lay The Favorite
I test to relay when the score line is 0-2 and i don't get an TIE with the odds.
Maybe this is because i did not use the ELO calculation for this example, but i don't belive the difference are that large.
I pick a home favorite with the odds below 1,75I watch the video for the ELO strategi and could see that we should relay at 0-2 to lower odds and you mention the staking ratio 80/20 and that did not work for me, but i find one other trading angle or solution using ratio 70/30.
I write to you because maybe i missunderstand the concept and the in-play mechanism.
But i simulateted the exchange in-play price movments and can not get the relay bet working as the video and explination page.
But if i bet on the draw odds after 0-2 i can make an scratch trade if the score become 1-2 using the stake ratio 70/30 where the first is £7 lay bet and the other £3 the back bet on the high draw price.What do you think about his and what is your past experience.
I admit that there was no information about what outcome the relay bet should perform, but my assumption was that it should achive and scratch trade and that did not happen when i simulated this situation.
Here is the first picture of the games starting odds
Here is the second picture when there is the score 0-1 and i lay at that current price with £7
Here is the third picture and i relay the score 0-2 with £3!
Here is picture four and the score 1-2 with reduce loss but not an scratch trade or an tie
Now the next example i back the high draw price when the score is 0-2 and almost make and zero libility trade.
Here is the picture with the staring odds.
Here is the scond picture where i lay the current 0-1 score with £7
Here is the third picture and where the score is 0-2 and i back the odds with £3 at odds 11,00
And the forth picture you can see the score 1-2 and reduce loss with cash out 5,80 and almost an scratch trade
Cheers Patrik From Sweden
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I will share something for the community as i can see there is certian amount of views.
There is an optional way or solution for the ELO calulation with 100+ difference including the comback ration of 60+I been doing some degree of extanded testing where you pick only Home Favorites witht he odds 1,75 or lower.
And where the Underdog score during the first 20 min.This creates what i call time value and where the majority of games the Favorite make an equalizer.
I got an positive ROI after 300 placed trades.
You have 70 min and the extra added time for first half and second half that is around an minimum of 10+.
That make your Home Favorite almost having an full match to equlaize or 80+ min.Now after reading Richard's ELO system and watch Martin's video i learn one importan lesson.
To take advantage of the 0-2 siutuation for the underdog where the Home Favorite succed scoring once but maybe not twice and we can get out from the RED with an SCRATCH - that is an importan lesson as this score line is very common when the Underdog is hot you will see more 1-2 score lines then 0-3 score lines.So i see value in trading this siutution to minimize the RED and increase the overall strike ratio with wins and ties and occasional loses.
Now i will update this topic as i will experiemnt with the options to act when there is 0-2.
As the relay bet is time sensetive and will not always work i want an sure thing as trading option.
In the examples above you can see that the correct score line 1-2 before kick of is around 26 to back.
Maybe this would cut the siutaion to an favorable HEDGE bet with 80/20 ratio and use the implicity of that things can go wrong and then be safe and i not with succesfull trade we take a reduce winning pot that narrow down to maybe 5 or 10% on the cash out amount, just my estimation.Not sure is this option work - but i will do some simluatons and get back with some pictures.
The other option that i know work to almost full degree is to back the draw price when the score line is 0-2 with the ratio 70/30 and you will get out with an scratch trade, but i feel 30% of the base stake is to much for an hedge bet and feel that 20% would be better, so there is a need to test that and the difference in odds are huge, draw price at 0-2 is around 11 to back and the cs back odds for 1-2 is around 26 to back.Cheers
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@Patrik-Mellqvist said in Lay The Underdog:
Why do you get an scratch trade in the video relaying the Underdog and i can not do the same?
a) Is that the ELO RATINGS are stronger force for the favorite that make the market react like that then using an regular home favorite with the price 1,75 or lower that i used in my examples aboveb) Does it depends on the individual trade and odds and price movment that some times creat an scrath trade and maybe sometimes create a small loss, what is your past experience?
c) Would you say backing the draw with a smaller stake then the base stake to make an scratch trade is a good trading option or would you say that is better to relay and let the markets price movments decide what the cash out will be
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Just depends on odds but a lot of time it will be scratch, if it's later in the game obviously it may not be, depends when you entered the 2nd bet. It's all about time decay as that is what influences odds other than goals.
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Yes
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I like to relay as you only need one goal to help you but you could try backing the draw, I have not tested that and so do not know.
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I apoliges for this, but i still feel there is an missunderstaning and maybe i am not clear with my way epressing my self, but i will give it an last try.
First of all the Underdog don't get behind, its the Favorite that goes behind.
The strategie is the follwing:Lying the dog (Richard's ELO Rating Lays)
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-laysAnd here is the video where the underdog gets ahead with 0-2 and you break even when the favorite score 1-2 because you relay the underdog lay price
And i do the same with my picture above with my first example or first four pictures with description.
BUT DON'T GET AN SCRATCH TRADE WHEN THE FAVORITE SCORE ONE GOAL 1-2So in this siutation i try to back the draw price and get an scratch trade with my second example with four pictures and descripion text.
SO MY QUESTION IS AS FOLLOWS
- Why do you get an scratch trade in the video relaying the Underdog and i can not do the same?
a) Is that the ELO RATINGS are stronger force for the favorite that make the market react like that then using an regular home favorite with the price 1,75 or lower that i used in my examples above
b) Does it depends on the individual trade and odds and price movment that some times creat an scrath trade and maybe sometimes create a small loss, what is your past experience?
c) Would you say backing the draw with a smaller stake then the base stake to make an scratch trade is a good trading option or would you say that is better to relay and let the markets price movments decide what the cash out will be
Cheers Patrik
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@Patrik-Mellqvist yes draw probably makes more sense if it's the underdog who goes behind, maybe a small stake on them to win. This isn't a strategy I do personally.
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@Martin sorry i should say lay the underdog
My misstake
Can you read my topic again and you Will understand
Is the ELO with 63 points comback example
Where the relay bet 0-2 to underdog dont work as described and i only find that backing the draw give an scratch tradeThat should make my pictures and explination above more clear
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@Patrik-Mellqvist so I like that you are testing this thoroughly!
OK so the first thing I will say is do what works for you, don't worry too much about how much I would stake it works differently for different styles of trader.
One way I like to lay is say the team goes 1-0 and they hit evens (2.0) I use a usual stake of £100 to lay for £100 liability, well if the team goes 0-2 I use the same stake to lay £100 but odds are now 1.33 so my liability is only £33 extra.
