The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Martin

@Kevin-Pepper great stuff! It backs up to four horses in a race odds 3-25

Kevin Pepper

As Adam says, it's key to know what your potential drawdown might hit. I'm sure we've all been there when you hit a bad run and your losses seem untenable and are ready to jack in a strategy. Losing 84pts on a strategy which backs at an average of say evens is quite a different thing to one with an average price of 20s. The bank should be adjusted to reflect the average odds and likely losing runs.
I'm sure I've seen a bank calculator somewhere which helps work out how many points you should consider for your bank. I think it'll be based on the Poisson calculator and it also may need a multiplier as from memory it looked a bit optimistic for my taste. Am away at the moment but will try and find and share.
The other important consideration is whether you're backing or laying. I see alot of posts regarding lay strategies saying they are for example 30 points up but the average lay odds are say 4.0. My preference is to always convert to level stakes based on the liability. At a lay price of 4.0, a gain of 30 points would be +10 based on the average 3 point liability. So flipping that around, if Martin's loss is 84 points but it we're a lay strategy, I'd convert the 84 pts loss based on the average lay price.
Hope that's of some use
K

Adam

@Martin My answer to whoever asked this would be:

Is the loss anything out of the ordinary? In other words, have there been other months in the past that have suffered a similar loss? Is the current drawdown the highest it's ever been? Has it had multiple losing months in a row now when that hasn't happened before, etc?

If it's something that happens occasionally with this strategy then it could easily just be natural variance and you probably don't want to cut it off before the inevitable recovery.

On the other hand, if you're seeing lots of things that look out of the ordinary then it's time to try and figure out what changed. Compare the average prices you've been taking this month with other months - are you just not getting as good value as before?

Add all your current strategy rules to the group breakdown and see if any particular category looks to be responsible for the issue. Think about why you added that rule in the first place - are you still confident it's a meaningful rule or did you just add it because it seemed to produce more profit or reduce more loss at the time? Archie score will help with this.

Try grouping by other categories that aren't already in your rules and look for meaningful patterns.

Think about what the rationale was for the strategy in the first place and ask yourself if there's any fundamental reason why that rationale might no longer apply.

Martin

Got a question for you guys and gals.

At what point would you stop trading a strategy? If it was having a bad month? I ask because one I am testing is 86pts down this month and I'm tempted to turn it off, thinking I might give it 100pts leeway though.

John Folan

@Adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Is anyone doing well on Irish racing at the moment? If so then I'd like my money back please

I think my dobs and trobs have done alright there lately. Seem pretty consistent

Martin

@Andy-Donnelly @Akiva-Anderson has a lot to answer for

Andy Donnelly

@Adam Good shout, I hadn’t twigged but yes I have suffered a downswing in Irish racing over the last two months. Across a number of lag strategies. Need to look at this more closely to see if similar trends in past years around this time of year

Adam

Is anyone doing well on Irish racing at the moment? If so then I'd like my money back please

Adam

@John-Folan Haha yes! Hopefully one day we can get a tighter integration sorted.

John Folan

You boys get everywhere lol

Martin

@Tony-Hastie haha so much junk isn't there these days

Tony Hastie

@Martin Just watched your DOB video. Nice example of the stats email and live trade...what really stood out for me though was the nearly 18k of messages in your inbox. Get reading fella

Martin

@Adam has done amazing work on the Jockey and Trainer stats! So many options now to help make a good strategy

Tony Hastie

@John-Folan Had this conversation with someone else who thought the same. I really like running in the rain though so couldnt see it myself. Im not a horse though I guess...

John Folan

Just reviewing all my stuff. Most of it has a crap March. I’m wondering if the unrelenting rain has had an effect. Not talking about going. Just noticed it seem to be a common occurrence. Thoughts?

andrew page

19.00 Kempton
Just Rita looks a decent lay tonight
cant see it troubling Valtellina on known form needs to improve
and why its now favourite is totally beyond me

Laying to liability Win and laying place

Exocet missile for you guys now get on lol

andrew page

@John-Folan

Without fail its an exocet missile resisting urge to increasing stakes yet tho
not until +£500 then no doubt go onto a daily compound keeping to 1% or 2% of bank per selection not decided yet

John Folan

@andrew-page amazing how variance always hits when you either share a strategy, put money on it or increase stakes

andrew page

just for the record im a total amatuer lol

andrew page

Funky Place lays

My max entry is 10.0
slow burner project have 2 months in profit no paper trading

BSP under 10.0
+£180 over 233 lays at £10 liability
+£134 at £10 set stake 233 lays

BSP Over 10.0
-£11.04 for liability over 464 lays
-16.80 for £10 set stakes over 464
started on a downswing these almost gave up on over 10 bsp but variance swung other way