*****New Football Thread*****
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Just started a couple of weeks ago with small stakes for the time being.
One of the strategies I have been following is the Lay Under 1.5 goals setting on the software.
It got off to a great start but recently saw 7 losses in a row. 5 of which were games from the League of Ireland Premier Division.
I don't have much data to confidently make any tweaks to the setting just yet, so I was wondering if anybody else has been doing this one this season.
Would anyone say that that league is one to avoid in the future?
Or does this kind of variance often occur?
I am a Hammers fan by the way - still feeling sore after Sunday!
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@mick-mcmahon said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd nooo come on Huddersfield (Leeds fan)
No that it matters as we're bleeding losing
I really didn't want to face you in the play offs!
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@mick-mcmahon You've run us close Mick but it's not over yet...
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@Alastair-Todd nooo come on Huddersfield (Leeds fan)
No that it matters as we're bleeding losing -
COMEONNNNNN Ipswich!! (sorry Martin)
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Nagoya Grampus v Vissel Kobe is 0-1 at HT.
81% of matches in this league have had a SHG.
SHG is this game is currently 1.45
Nice price that. Implied odds would be 1.22. Worth the risk in my opinion
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Nagoya Grampus v Vissel Kobe is 0-1 at HT.
81% of matches in this league have had a SHG.
SHG is this game is currently 1.45
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@Alex-Rendell ahahahahaha I was after the Liverpool job but apparently the data geeks said no to me!
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https://share.icloud.com/photos/069ApE4w2yeSBixcDFRUc2R9Q
Where next then @Ryan?!?
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
According to Grok, 'Tottenham has won only 1 of their last 38 matches away to Chelsea in all competitions'.
Lay Tottenham at 2.92
Just out of interest, Grok thinks this match will finish 3-2
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Anyone else quite want Kane to win a Champions League?
No!!
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According to Grok, 'Tottenham has won only 1 of their last 38 matches away to Chelsea in all competitions'.
Lay Tottenham at 2.92
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Alex-Rule sounds good
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@Martin Got ya - I do tend to prefer a straight back or lay. Eg - late goal and just let it run. But good to know for future for sure.
I'm testing some over 2.5 goals strats at 30 min entry so could be a good option for sure if only 2 goals and at 80 mins or so.
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Noticed some people looking at leagues and amounts of games trying to see when to stop trading etc.
Here is a link to a simple spreadsheet I use, I have tried to make it as accurate as possible but if anybody notices a mistake plase shout at me.
I have left out some of the more obscure and, frankly, crazy leagues.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16sXcP8P6Yxh_7Sd85bw_HxUV0W2oUQ9QDpC6h0R0Br4/edit?usp=sharing
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@Andy-Donnelly I'm still a paid up member of Odds Monkey for my matched betting, I've seen that Maria staking mentioned on there and thought it was a member strategy
I'll look into it thanks 
My odds range and my strikerate makes it comfortable for my trading so thats why im ok trying it, yesterday I got another full house, 17/17, my £1 lay was 100% ROI while my variable staking gave me 156% ROI, I can see the difference both make, today for instance, i only have 4 trades, the 1st one lost which now means my £variable lay will make more loss than my £1 lay.
Since I started variable staking 10 days ago, only 3 days, today included, have been in favour of £1 lays, -0.34, -6.33 and a small loss difference today, but my variable staking is still well ahead in terms of ROI, so I'll just carry on and tread carefully and see if it this is the right way for me. -
@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin - LIVE Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Betfair Trading - Reducing Risk In-Play
But I guess it could be applied to any market?
Benefit is more control over your trade and you calculate ratios etc by testing the selections and seeing what works best.
what you need to work out is your profit to loss ratio
so what % of your stake do you win if no goal
and what % of your stake do you lose if a goal
then compare that to your strikerate
