John’s Horse Trading Resources
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A lot of stuff seems to go missing in the HRT, especially now it has livened up. I will post anything useful here. Links/files etc.
I will post the links etc in the first comment(this one. They will then be referenced in the relevant comment if applicable. Feel free to question away.
GENERAL RESOURCES
This calculation will work out your drawdown.
=MIN((Y2-MAX($Y$2:Y2))/MAX($Y$2:Y2),0)
You need to apply it to your running total column as I have done in the example below. Make your first row your starting bank. This then needs to be applied to the whole column.
This calculation will then show you your highest bank drawdown. It needs to be applied to the relevant column.
=MIN(AH:AH).
It will then give you a largest drawdown figure like this.
Courtesy of Martin Futter
Odds Probability Table to calculate odds against strike rate
https://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.html
Courtesy of Matt Wood
If anyone uses google sheets and you have your filter S/R, then in the cell next to it put this:
=1/(E16/100)/100 (e16 being the cell with the % S/R)
Should auto calculate the odds required (not counting for commission)
Courtesy of Richard Latimer
Useful Trading Links
www.bettingtools.co.uk
www.aceodds.comEstimate Losing Runs
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebetinvestor.com/guide/how-to-estimate-your-longest-losing-sequence/amp/HORSE SPECIFIC RESOURCES
Horse Software Tips
Always run two versions of your strategy. One called results with all your filters and one called qualifiers with variables like number of runners removed. You can then filter these manually or on your bot as they change a lot.The Original Maria Staking Thread from 2005.
Essential Horse Trading Links.
https://www.cheltenhambettingoffers.com/articles/glossary/
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/horse-racing-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing (Information on the days racing and past results)
https://www.racingpost.com/non-runners/ (Going and non runners for the day)
Important Definitions for Inrunning trading
Dream maker 62’s LTB
My DOB/TROB rules
dr-dobs.json
dr-trobs.jsonBasically the same but the Dobs use a wider price range. Do either or both. They are both profitable.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan out of interest, how many L2Bs would you normally get on in a day....if you had nothing else happening in life. I think Im trying to do to many and am making silly mistakes(yeah, following the wrong horse again!)
Varies to be honest but usually 5/6
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@John-Folan out of interest, how many L2Bs would you normally get on in a day....if you had nothing else happening in life. I think Im trying to do to many and am making silly mistakes(yeah, following the wrong horse again!)
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3/6 dobs and 2/3 trobs for 3 points profit
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1/2 dobs and 1/1 trobs. Two points to the good
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Six months live results. Slow start through the winter months(although profitable). Just shy of sixty points combined from the two exit points. Hopefully kick on up to September.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan Ive just radically changed my approach to DOBs, TROBs etc deciding that a horse has to have a fair chance of winning the race after having a bad spell last month and sorting through 800 results for an answer. My answer was, a huge chunk of my profit(on the 4 point system I described earlier) was from odds in the range of 2.4-8.
Ive not tightened the odds range that much(opting for 2.4-20) but I have started discounting horses that dont have a positive write up on BFEX! From saturday, Ive had 11 selections and picked 7 winners! My favourite being when my (normally very reliable) bot didnt chuck in the lays. Ill be retired by the end of the year if I can keep that strike rate up
That's a point. Wonder if @Adam Adam can include Timeform ratings in the software. OOoohh.
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@John-Folan Ive just radically changed my approach to DOBs, TROBs etc deciding that a horse has to have a fair chance of winning the race after having a bad spell last month and sorting through 800 results for an answer. My answer was, a huge chunk of my profit(on the 4 point system I described earlier) was from odds in the range of 2.4-8.
Ive not tightened the odds range that much(opting for 2.4-20) but I have started discounting horses that dont have a positive write up on BFEX! From saturday, Ive had 11 selections and picked 7 winners! My favourite being when my (normally very reliable) bot didnt chuck in the lays. Ill be retired by the end of the year if I can keep that strike rate up
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@John-Folan lovely jubbly! Thanks for adding the strats
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First trades for a couple of days
2/2 dobs and 1/1 trobs. Four points of lovely profit
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@Tony-Hastie These are revised files I got from the software. I took a load of filters out and looked at the odds ranges. Turns out you can dob from a wider range than you can trob.
You are one of a kind @John-Folan thanks for sharing!
@John-Folan could you add these to the OP? Cheers
Will do matey. Been meaning to update it -
@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@Tony-Hastie These are revised files I got from the software. I took a load of filters out and looked at the odds ranges. Turns out you can dob from a wider range than you can trob.
You are one of a kind @John-Folan thanks for sharing!
@John-Folan could you add these to the OP? Cheers
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@John-Folan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan how long do you tend to give forward testing before going live stakes? I'm currently using 3+ months
Same. I’m only going more because of March.
Another 3 points on the dobs/trobs today
These all seem to be doing very well good work mate
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@John-Folan Ive got a H pace one too
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Another ridiculous 6 point day on the dobs and trobs. I’m hoping these will only get better as we move further away from Covid and the form becomes even more reliable. We will see.
The new Dreammaker Bot provided 3 points today. Again same premise. I’ve gone a different route to Tony as I use the H pace letter in the last 2 races. Everything else is similar and there’s probably nothing in it. A slow horse is a slow horse. I’ll shove the bot and software file up once I’m happy as I know these work.
Now it’s just a matter of compounding
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan how long do you tend to give forward testing before going live stakes? I'm currently using 3+ months
Same. I’m only going more because of March.
Another 3 points on the dobs/trobs today
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@John-Folan Definitely be interested to see how that bot pans out. Whats annoying me at the moment in the live trading is....
- Im not getting my pergola built!!
- Some of the selections Ive made have been true to their form and held up...they can be last, with 4 lengths to the next horse....and the bloody price will shorten!(which would certainly not work with your bot or mine) Maybe this occurs in the longer races? Probable, Ill have to take more notice. Or maybe I need to strengthen my selections?
Its just so annoying when a horse does everything you want it to do and the odds shorten or just lay dormant! Im not that interested in horse racing that I can watch a 3 mile plus race to the end
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@John-Folan how long do you tend to give forward testing before going live stakes? I'm currently using 3+ months
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan dead even this week for me, one of my strategies accounts for 20pts loss though so kind of pleased that the others have all profited. Weird how you can be pleased about such things!
It really is. I’ve got two more that are probably ready to go. Just decided to give them another month of testing before posting on here.
The Dreammaker bot is interesting. I’ve never thought of doing it like this before. You don’t need a stop loss just a set trade out point. The horses still aren’t fancied to win at that point even if they have run well so you don’t get much of a steam on any losses so they should be minimal. Amazing what a little chat on here can do. Thanking @Tony-Hastie for getting me going on the bot idea again.