NBA trading
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Hey guys, just wondering if there's any other NBA traders here. I do a lot of NBA pre game betting and have been very successful for the past few years but looking to get into the NBA trading side. I'm getting my software dev to make me a live trading bot based on my algorithms but while I am confident it will be profitable I really won't know until I run it in practice mode, which is a risk I'm willing to take (risk is paying for the bot and have it not be profitable )
In the mean time I am interested in setting Bet Angel to bet say 10-20 ticks (in practice mode) above the starting price on my selections on the moneyline and setting up a auto stop loss. NBA has huge swings and I'm wondering if anyone has experience in live NBA trading and has any advice or wants to talk in general about it. I'm also happy to talk about pre-game betting as that's what I specialise in. Cheers guys
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I'm hoping someone may be able to point me in the right direction with this, and to anyone who does, I greatly appreciate it. I want to be able to backtest previous games within my own statistics to see the highest prices matched in-play. As we discussed, there are huge swings in NBA. In the picture below and spreadsheet attached are predictions that I currently do not use due to it not being profitable. BUT If I can test at what point they are profitable along with the likelihood of being matched then may be able to make them profitable. As you can see, its -0.89% POT from 2772 games over 12 seasons on corporate/vegas odds (I get my data from bigdataball and they use vegas odds) So Betfair can beat those odds anyway, but knowing ratio of the likelihood of being matched at X odds can make these profitable. So is there a source that says the highest matched prices of completed markets? I tried to get data from https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home but I couldnt get the file to work at all. If anyone has any helpful info on getting data or even to get the bloody file to open I'd greatly appreciate it!
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@nathan-bennett thanks mate. I had often noticed that sometimes everyone cancels their lay bets and the next best odds can be 30 ticks+ above what it should be, which I imagine would cause premature stop loss. Hopefully I'll be able to get some good trading down and I'll share it with you all when I do
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@jason-parker I don't mind laying odds on favs on the road . as far as the betangel offsets concerned are helpful but not so much with a stop loss as liquidity is low some games and random spikes can occur almost best to hold for a timeout when market settles etc . just thought ad in some info Ive gone quiet on it now so much cricket . cheers nath
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@sean-fitzgerald Thanks Sean, If your willing to pass on those notes that would be very helpful!
I'm not surprised you were having success laying heavy favs, as less than 1/3 of my betting is backing underdogs at the moneyline, but backing underdogs makes up more than 2/3 of my overall profits. Not backing every dog, only backing those within my calculations.
The market does keep faith in the fav's and that is one thing that pisses me off but can also be used to an advantage. a good example from memory is when Phoenix played Boston for the first time this season (I think?) Phoenix were leading by 16 points and Boston were still favs! And then Phoenix lead by 6-8 points in the final minute and lost in overtime! I also remember seeing $30k matched on Phoenix at $1.01....Rest in peace. Would love to have more of a chat mate, Cheers
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@jason-parker
I’ve done a little and was working on a strategy of laying heavy faves. I was motoring along and then hit a bad patch. Didn’t help I was in the middle of my wedding week and honeymoon during this time.
I was essentially looking to DOB (or more like HOB) so had no stop loss. I think there is huge potential here.
I’ve got some from very basic notes from my experiment that I’m happy to share with you as a starting point however not sure how helpful it will be given your setup is a little (a lot) more sophisticated than where I’m at.
One thing I did underestimate a little was how much and how long the market would keep faith in a heavy fave to get the job done. I was greening up later in games than what I expected.
Happy to lend a hand if I can
Cheers
Sean
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