The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Barry-Dewar have you watched the video in the email? well worth a watch I actually demonstrate a dob in it and say what to look for:
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16.25 Jungle Charm 2.68
has to be a nice value lay book price is 3.50
Luke morris gone 50 rides without a winner
lay to liability -
OK, first full day here. Just looking at the Highlights email and planning today's racing.
I haven't tried dobbing before, I can see that for some races there are multiple horses who look like good dobbing candidates. Is it best to stick to one, or do more than one horse often hit the lay price?
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Anyone else lay 'Old C**k' today?
At least I got paid for it!I’ve heard Ryan likes laying Old C**k. At least that’s what Keith told me
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@andrew-page it was a lay 3rd fav for me, -3pts so far today on that strategy but at least that one won
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Anyone else lay 'Old C**k' today?
At least I got paid for it!no having a mare today
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Profit is profit i suppose was tanking along until evening
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These are todays SelectionsProject working on initially laying all under 10.0
any over 10.0 laying if hit 10.o in runningwin part is down 33 points may be bad side of variance straight off the bat will record see if recovers
stopped laying anything in running if BSP over 10.0However swapped to laying place
its running in profit 6 weeks in long may it continuebreakdown
all with bsp under 10.0 laying place to liability is better than set stakeall those with BSP OVER 10
disregarding all over 8.0 the place
running break even at the moment -
Playing about with cold jockeys at the moment
one thing i do know lay luke morris at kempton !!!! -
Cant really say im just looking for false favs so ones at top of their ratings needing to improve to win
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@andrew-page Thanks Andrew. Yeh so far in the first week or so, my “lay the top rated horse” strategy has done well.
Does it work the same way later in the year? For the transition into the start of the official jump season? My strategy numbers are not quite as clear cut for then historically.
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Its Logical horses on All weather dont always transfer form to Turf
while some may be rated 81 on All weather it could be a lowly 60 mark on turf
plenty of newcomer races for the upsets favs get turned over regular for 6 weeks until end april then form starts to settle down with ground being more consistant -
@Joseph-Henderson Around 8am.
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@Adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam Is it a simple scope filter to find price movements overnight?
Start with the "Morning price" rule, select "compare" and then compare it to the Evening Price with whichever multiplier you're looking for, e.g. 0.5 will find horses that have halved in price.
The morning price is a snapshot taken around 10:30am though I think,which is later than the highlights email as that goes out around 8am.
I'll add an "early morning price" rule so people can find the earlier moves as well.
What time will the "early morning price" feature capture roughly?
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@Andy-Donnelly if it's consistent across the past couple of years too indicates more of a trend
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@Martin Cheers. Yep will see how the next few months go. History suggests that the strategy struggles from June. May look at seeing whether flipping it from that point works
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@Andy-Donnelly sounds logical to me, I have been using months of the year a lot more in my strategies recently as I find it can have a big effect on the results.
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As it’s the official start of the flat season today was doing some reading and read a few articles that were saying that the handicappers and the official ratings are not quite as accurate in the first few months as the form lines are not quite there.
As it happens I had created a lay the ratings leader strategy last year and it hasn’t done that well so archived it. However dusted it off yesterday and noticed that during the months of April and May it has been significantly profitable every year, which may back up the above.
For the true horse racing experts, is the logic sound re handicapper struggles in changeover months?
Also does anyone use strategies for an only a limited time of the season every year?
Thinking that I will be trading (with small stakes) my old strategy between now and end of May and then leave it again but interested for views on this type of approach.
