*****New Football Thread*****
-
Probably a vote for actually watching the game in that case. TBF, when it goes over one they usually score pretty soon after. but plenty of goals under 1 as well. Maybe with AI going into the future it will get extremely accurate and there will be no value for anyone haha.
-
@Greg-Mitchell @Arran-Shackell this is how I understand it too, read “The xG philosophy” to try and get a better grasp of it.
-
I am no xG aficionado, but my understanding is that it is a measure not only of the shots/possession/goal attempts, but also the perceived quality of those.
So if you were not watching the game, then you may think having 20 shots means there must surely be a goal coming up. But if all of those shots have come from 30 yards out and there have been numerous defenders between the shot taker and the goal, then the chance of there being a goal is less.
-
I’m never sure what to think of the in play xg. Seems to be plenty of first goals scored when it’s <0.4 for a team. Happy to be enlightened though.
-
@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin I agree there should have been a goal eventually but the stats for the first half made it look even more likely than the actual chances for me. It was very frustrating in the end as some good chances wasted second half too
Interesting conversation this. I wasn't watching the game, but keeping my eye on the in-play stats, and yes from the first half the shots tally was high, however the in-play xG for both teams was very low (less than 0.6).
-
-
-
@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lecce v Roma SHG 1.35 with 21 goal attempts and 5 shots on goal in the first half!
Crikey! 37 goal attempts and 9 shots on goal 0-0
I watched this also, my advice don't watch the highlights you will not understand how thee wasn't a goal!
-
@Alastair-Todd I watched this game the stats painted a better picture than the actual chances for me
-
Lecce v Roma SHG 1.35 with 21 goal attempts and 5 shots on goal in the first half!
Crikey! 37 goal attempts and 9 shots on goal 0-0
-
Monday, 01st April 2024:
Over 1.5 Goals (BTC):
05:00 - Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers
12:00 - Örebro vs Skövde AIK
13:30 - Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt
14:00 - Brage vs Varberg BoIS
15:00 - Plymouth Argyle vs Bristol City
15:00 - Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons
15:00 - Oxford United vs Fleetwood Town
15:30 - Elfsborg vs Värnamo
16:00 - Lillestrøm vs Kristiansund
16:00 - Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
17:30 - Ipswich Town vs Southampton
18:15 - Viking vs Sarpsborg 08SHG:
11:30 – Bologna v Salernitana
12:00 - Örebro vs Skövde AIK
12:30 - Leicester City vs Norwich City
13:30 - Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt*
15:00 – Coventry v Cardiff
15:00 – Middlesbrough v Sheffield Wednesday
15:00 - Oxford United vs Fleetwood Town
15:00 – Bolton v Reading
15:00 – Carlisle v Lincoln*
15:00 – Mansfield v Accington
15:00 – Stockport v AFC Wimbledon
15:00 – Crewe v Forest Green
16:00 - Lillestrøm vs Kristiansund
16:00 - Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
16:00 – Molde v Stromsgodset
15:30 - Elfsborg vs Värnamo
15:30 - AIK vs Västerås SK
17:00 – Waterford v Shamrock Rovers*
18:15 - Viking vs Sarpsborg 08
19:45 – Inter Milan v EmpoliHome Wins:
11:30 - Bologna vs Salernitana (1.28)
15:00 - Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday (1.87)
15:00 – Bolton v Reading (1.61)
15:00 – Stockport v AFC Wimbledon (1.68)
16:00 – Molde v Stromsgodset (1.41)
19:45 - Inter vs Empoli (1.21) -
-
@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Anyone know what stats feed into the bet365 in play xg?
Google says Opta
-
Anyone know what stats feed into the bet365 in play xg?
-
@Alastair-Todd my trades have been absolutely beasted in March, had a brilliant day Friday and Saturday and managed to get March back in profit, but having a shocker today, still waiting for results to come in tonight but what I made Friday and Saturday looks to have been wiped out, you're not alone pal.
-
@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Well, what a day. All 5 matched trades lost and all 5 trades which I didn't enter because of rubbish odds won. More than wiped out an excellent day yesterday. Why can't these bloody millionaires score goals
Similar story here: 21/22 winners yesterday but half of that profit's disappeared in just 13 trades so far today and it could all go if my final two go tits-up. You just have to look at the long term on days like today and remember there's always tomorrow.
-
Well, what a day. All 5 matched trades lost and all 5 trades which I didn't enter because of rubbish odds won. More than wiped out an excellent day yesterday. Why can't these bloody millionaires score goals
-
Sunday, 31st March.
I'll be keeping an eye on these matches:
Over 1.5 Goals (BTC):
12:35 - Shandong Taishan vs Shanghai Shenhua
13:00 - Hammarby vs Kalmar
13:30 – FC Twente v Heracles
14:00 - Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion
14:00 - Landskrona vs Sandviken
15:30 - Häcken vs Mjällby
16:30 - VfB Stuttgart vs Heidenheim
20:45 – Atlanta v ChicagoSHG:
05:00 – Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory
12:00 – Livingston v Celtic
12:30 – St Pauli v Paderborn
13:30 – Feyenoord v Utrecht
13:30 – FC Twente v Heracles
14:00 – Liverpool v Brighton
14:00 – Nice v Nantes
15:15 – Girona v Betis
15:30 – Hacken v Mjallby
16:30 – Stuttgart v Heidenheim
20:00 – Real Madrid v Atletico Bilbao
20:45 – Atlanta v ChicagoHome Wins:
13:30 – Feyenoord v Utrecht
13:30 – FC Twente v Heracles
15:15 – Girona v Betis
16:30 – Stuttgart v Heidenheim
20:45 – Atlanta v Chicago -
-
Anybody else have a trade on the Orange County match at 03:00, Betfair settled as a draw, but finished 1-0..
