The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
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@Ryan I think come August/September I will either have to get up earlier on a Saturday and spend more time or if life gets in the way just leave that day completely... better to have earned nothing than lost money due to rushing.
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@Shannon-Townsend That's great that you have kept it simple and are looking for value as well which is really smart.
I hope this continues, goals markets are always fun as well!
Saturday's are horrible the 3pms! What are you going to take from that as well then to tweak going forward in your trading plan?
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@Ryan I have kept it pretty simple so on btts I'm looking for both teams to have had btts 70% of the time and then I will only enter if odds are over 1.7... I think when I use real money I will obviously keep this the same but enter after 5 or 10 mins to squeeze a bit more profit out of it...
Similar rules on laying u1.5...
On my half time lay the draw I am looking for home teams who average scoring over 1 goal in 1st half and away teams that concede 1 or more, combined with under 10% of half time nil nils or 1-1s... that means I really do not get many selections but that makes it easier in a way.
During the winter leagues season I was struggling on a Saturday and always seemed to lose a pt or two on all strategies and I think it's due to number of selections meaning I was probably rushing and not being as strick on selections...
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@Shannon-Townsend it 100% will, talk me through the process you used to build these strategies?
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@Ryan yeah feels good and feels like its starting to really click... obviously if it was real money it would feel better but my time will come.
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@Shannon-Townsend How does it feel to have a month like that?
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@Shannon-Townsend well done and thanks for the update! Keep up the good work
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End of month 5 -
Lay u1.5 1st half goals - kept the data i have but stopped adding to it as needs time spent on it and rather focus my efforts elsewhere at this stage
Lay u1.5 goals - now 35pts up so in recovered the loss at end of April
LTD 1st half only - now 35pts up so 10 pts up in May - not many selections but when they come it doesnt produce many losig trades
BTTS - now 32 pts up so up 5 pts in May - started going live with £1 stakes
Lay Away - up 17 pts so 1 pt up in May - not many selections due to end of winter leagues
also exploring finding value on over 1.5 and under 2.5 but early days on that research
Overall a much better month and continuing to learn that patience and finding quality opportunities is key and far more important than number of trades... remembering that If im up 10 pts in a month then one day that could be £1,000 a month and that would be amazing.
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@Shannon-Townsend well done on the cutting out of stupid trades, not easy to do and that is a massive step in the right direction!
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So end of month 4 and still recording as much data as possible...
Set & Forget -
Lay u1.5 1st half goals - just about break even excluding commission so not ideal
Lay u1.5 goals - now 28 pts up so down another 8 pts in April
LTD 1st half only - now 25 pts up so 6 pys up in April - a success story for the month
BTTS - started paper trading this on 10th Feb - 27 pts up since starting
also paper trading lay away as sounds like that is a strategy that needs exploring and that is 16pts up since start of March...
overall going strong and learning all the time and have cut out stupid desperate trades and only get incolved when there is clear value...
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@Shannon-Townsend think March was a strange month, hopefully a better April!
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End of month 3 results
Lay u1.5 1st half goals - now down 1 pt for the year so down another 5 pts in March
Lay u1.5 goals - now 36pts up for the year so down 10pts in March
LTD 1st half only - now 19 pts up for the year so down 3 pts in March
A tougher month for the set and forget paper trading but have added a few other stratagies to my spreadsheet and my understanding of finding value has improved and my live trading with minimum stakes is starting to prove quite succesful.
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@Shannon-Townsend don't worry too much about the odd missed day it happens, just keep doing it when you can as I know there can be times where it feels like busy work.
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End of month 2 paper trading and still looking positive although found it harder to keep up with spread sheets with kids and actual job taking up a lot of my time so have missed the odd day here and there...
Lay u1.5 1st half goals - now 4pts up for the year so down 7pts in Feb
Lay u1.5 goals - now 46pts up for the year so up 33pts in Feb (currently my crown jewel)
LTD 1st half only - now 22 pts up for the year so up 10 pts in Feb (another winner at the minute)
Back over 0.5 goals - this is the one i have struggled to update as so many selections and have to look up odds on each one - currently 1 pt up for the year so down 2 pts in Feb
Added in Feb -
BTTS - Up 13pts since so a solid start
Over 2.5 goals - added this one since low maintenance as software can give me the odds - down 8 pts but will stick with it as easy to update and someone said on a podcast once a terrible strategy is isnt such a bad thing
After 2 months my set and forget stratagies are running at an overall 76pt profit so i will take that all day long... still very early days though... back in a month.
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@Shannon-Townsend Brilliant!!
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@Shannon-Townsend that's an outstanding month! well done
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End of month 1 paper trading and its been a decent start...
Lay u1.5 1st half goals - 11pts up
Lay u1.5 goals when low enough odds - 13pts up
LTD 1st half only - 12pts up
Back over 0.5 1st half goals - 3pts up
Early days but good start and can see how tracking everything is gonna be hugely helpful in the future... same again in Feb please
