Btts strategy is it worth it
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Hello Betfair traders
So I've been dipping into set and forget strategies this will be my first and it suits my lifestyle around two young very active kids. I've been messing around for 2 months now and altered the filter more times then you know. I'm finally set but it's not giving me loads of fixtures.
Just want to post my results and see if it's worth sticking with really.
Btts yes strategy
161 results
108 wins
Strike rate 67.5%
£2 stakes
£ 71 profitFeel like it's not making enough or am in I just been greedy and impatient ?
Please give your honesty opinions and advice
Thank you all
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@Kurtis-Steven-Graham
Hey dude , I've changed alot since the first filter to narrow down too many selections, I'm currently testing and will reveal my finding very soon.Are you struggling to find selections ?
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please could you share the strategy by any chance or the stats filter setting? thanks
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@Andrew-wren Certainly looks good so far in your original post! What works for me to keep my perspective and maintain my patience is to multiply my profit by 10/50/100 in a few cells on my spreadsheet. If you multiply your profit by 50 (theoretically the result of having used £10 stake) it’s £3550, which is superb on a 67.5% SR from 161 results. Well done.
I am gradually shifting my style, strategies and tests to be able to profit from similar SR’s, one way or another getting as close to evens as I can with the overall odds or the equivalent of evens on the win/loss ratio with an exit from a trade when I hit my stop loss. -
If you have any issues with excel, worth checking exceljet.net - free website with everything you could ever need to know about excel
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@Andrew-wren
I wish we could! -
@Ryan can't wait for that !
Push it forward I'm excited already lol -
@Andrew-Gray Think there is a lot of truth in that, regarding the months. I am testing a lay BTTS strategy just now and it was doing really well for about 5-6 months where I had around 3000 data points for it, but it's crashed the past four or five weeks since I have started testing with £1 stakes.
I'd possibly put it down to a kind of "Moving Day" approach where teams are maybe needing to get a move on to get up the league table but that's not grounded in anything concrete, more just a feeling from watching games/media coverage of relegation battles and so on.
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@Andrew-wren I think getting to grips with spreadsheets is a very worthwhile investment for any trader, I am not that good with them either. I just dont make them too complicated
When it comes to variance it's the boring answer but it's the only one, you won't ever know till you test it and gather the data longer term, its what you have to do - sadly.
Although when we release the footie backtesting (no date yet!) you ill be able to test the idea and see what the history would have been.
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End of January and start of Feb seemed very good for BTTS in general even with loose filters so you might want to be careful before calling it a slam dunk. I've experienced a crash in Feb since so if yours has still continued to do well then maybe you have something good.
However if you had an overly loose filter and have gradually tightened it up without going back and deleting the historic results that would not have passed the now tightened filter, then that could be a problem - something to possibly think about.
22% ROI sounds great though, and 161 in 2 months is also a pretty good amount of selections and suggests the filter is not too tight
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@Stephen-Hancox said in Btts strategy is it worth it:
@Andrew-wren so as I've interpreted your results, you would have staked £322 and made back £393, so that's about a 22% ROI, I'm not sure it gets much better than that for 1 strategy alone. My advice would be keep going with it and stick to a sensible percentage of your bank, over time your bank will grow accordingly. If you're feeling inpatient, start testing another strategy in another market and aim to get similar results.
Lets put it into Perspective !!!
There is no bank going to give you 22%
Winning more brings even more variance into play
its not a bad hustle alongside other strategies -
Thank you
Maybe I continue with small stakes until 1000 result then see about pumping money into the strategy . -
@Ryan wow thanks
Yes so my concern is variance.
Is this just a good period will this just crash ?Really hoping this is a good strategy maybe I should share with Martin to see if it can be improved ?
I'm currently recording results on paper as excel would take me a little while to learn .
Or is it better to track results ... -
@Andrew-wren It's doing very well, one of the things that traders get wrong often is thinking their strategies should be making more.
Because they see the profit and think yeh well that won't pay the bills, it won't... yet.
Every great trader started here and built up. At £2 a point and a profit of 71 thats 35 points profit which is insanely good!
17.5 points per month, I say thats a cracker! I am also tagging @Martin here too!
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@Andrew-wren so as I've interpreted your results, you would have staked £322 and made back £393, so that's about a 22% ROI, I'm not sure it gets much better than that for 1 strategy alone. My advice would be keep going with it and stick to a sensible percentage of your bank, over time your bank will grow accordingly. If you're feeling inpatient, start testing another strategy in another market and aim to get similar results.
