*****New Football Thread*****

Yes, I'm trusting my calculations that I use for the rest of football and no testing, but so far so good, have 100% strike rate so far in the few women's games I've done.

Thats put the mockers on it..

Martin

@Greg-Mitchell women's football will be fascinating, want to test it a while to see how it holds up but it's a great addition

Greg Mitchell

First loser of the week last night, updated table with todays picks, no doubt the Saturday hoodoo will strike:

Greg Mitchell

@Martin All of my picks are based on Stats, I only use the odds to restrict my Liability, so will have a maximum odds for lay bets and a minimum odds for back bets based on the Strike Rate.

So, this automatically picks up the value as in your example.

A couple of recent ones from yesterday/this morning for example:

Samsunspor v Galatasaray - Over 3.5 Stats % was 9%, odds were 2.92

Western United (W) v Central Coast Mariners W - Over 3.5 Stats was 9%, odds were 2.7

Admittedly both would have given you a bit of stress, as Galatasaray were 2 up after 11 minutes and the other was 2-1 after 28 mins (1-1 after 6). But both came in at Under 3.5 at Full Time.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Forgot to post that I'd laid under 1.5 in Breda.

Not looking great at present.

0-0 and not the start I wanted for Feb. Onwards...

Richard Latimer

Forgot to post that I'd laid under 1.5 in Breda.

Not looking great at present.

Martin

Interested does anyone trade based on stats that stick out compared to odds? Just looking at the games manually.

For example stats were saying around 80% chance of first half goal in Lecce v Fiorentina but odds were 1.54 for a first half goal.

andrew page

@Chris-King said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@andrew-page interesting, not quite an unders though? So basically getting matched with as little liability as possible and allowing the match to play out to hopefully take a profit when there are goals? Could also work on lower goals markets. Thanks.

lay low for big reward yep

Chris King

@andrew-page interesting, not quite an unders though? So basically getting matched with as little liability as possible and allowing the match to play out to hopefully take a profit when there are goals? Could also work on lower goals markets. Thanks.

andrew page

@Chris-King said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Out of interest, which market would people recommend for an unders strategy?

Trading from KO to 10 mins exit for a profit if no goal (if there’s a goal exiting trade when market settles).

lay u6.5 @1.01 not many matched not many hit when match but get odd pearler and some decent trade out options

Ryan

I'm a bigger fan of Emma Paton though.

Mark Maguire

@Akiva-Anderson speaks too quickly I agree ... but I might forgive .. her and Rio though .. leave each other alone..

Chris King

Out of interest, which market would people recommend for an unders strategy?

Trading from KO to 10 mins exit for a profit if no goal (if there’s a goal exiting trade when market settles).

Ben Dobie

Thank god for late goals in Oz !