Lay The Draw
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Afternoon all, was wondering if anyone has Lay The Draw strategy that’’s doing well? How do you select your trades and how do you play them?
I really like LTD but stopped doing it a while back, so wanted to create a profitable strategy of my own. It’s so straightforward..when you have a strategy plan and stick to it that is, which was not always something I used to do.
Here is mine, been doing it a few months, it’s in profit. I also track set and forget profit which is looking promising, although early days and too many losses on this could do a lot of damage. I also track if there is a side winning at 70 minutes.
Selections must be 5.0 or below to lay prior to kick off. The filter selects up to 6.1 to make sure I get matches where the price fluctuates above and below 5.0, then when I get my selections I manually filter out anything above 5.0.
I have traded one or two selections that were above 5.0 pre-match in play if they’ve remained 0-0 and dropped to between 4.0-5.0 but i much prefer getting in at kick off. Everything else has been 5.0 or below pre-match and the trade placed about 5-10 minutes before kick off.
One Thing that bugs me a little with LTD even if an odds on home team score (or away team), you don’t always get a decent profit from one goal, which is why i started tracking if there was a winner at 70 minutes.
Generally though, if there is profit, I’ve been taking it.
Spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-xQSOkHkumBoWkpJrxZcbQpXh_tL4YSfQMblXEj2muA/edit?usp=sharingFilter
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@Ryan Thanks. Nice one, i will take all this in to account. Yes, I’m not keen on high draw odds and like to be in 4.6 and below too. Not paid too much attention to the home odds as perhaps i should though, mainly just working on getting a decent number of trades at draw odds I’m comfortable with.
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@Chris-King Looks pretty good to me, another couple of things that I had on mine were home faves under 2.0 and draw between 3.9 - 4.6 seemed to be the best range for me!
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@Mark-Maguire Well I have mentioned this many times
maybe you just dont listen to me -
Just knocked this up..(home scored in 0-70 mins >79%(as isn’t visible in the screen shot)
Loads of selections and varying odds ranges too for matches tomorrow
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@Ryan Yes because ideally we want the home team to score first to see a decent odds swing and profit. In the past I couldn’t see why the home team scoring first had such a significant effect as oddly as that might sound but it does make sense.
A steady amount of selections with home scoring first 70%+ and away conceding first 70%+ would be nice. I’ll have to look in to that, thanks!
I do think there can be a lot of bias in the odds market that stifles LTD though even when there is no clear favourite. Had a fair few where the away team are 0-1 and playing far better with home showing no signs of a comeback and the odds don’t start to swing to create a profit until very late.
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@Ryan what kind of alchemy is this that you've been hiding .. first to score and concede .. thats given me another tunnel to go down
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One of the things that always worked well for me on LTD was the First to score stat and making sure the first to concede matched it.
I always looked for the first to score on the home to be high 70% + then the same for the away to concede first to be 70%+.
From then you can then look at the stats as well to see the margins to see how many times they won by 2 and also compare it with the goal times to see what times they are likely to score another - you might then be able to wait till the second goal.
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@Mark-Maguire Thanks for sharing. Some nice results and plenty of trades too. It’s good to hear that LTD S&F can work well. Interesting comments on ELO too. That is something I haven’t ever touched so may start to look in to that.
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@Chris-King I am refining mine - at the moment I have a filter which is based upon Ryans Betgreen filter - but I added an ELO variance.
Over 1600 trades it has a strike rate of 84% set and forget..
I have been diving into it some more and find that the influence of ELO % , Home and Away Odds and 01.5 % are the most effective ways to squeeze the SR up to 87% plus.
All the above for your info/interest
