SJR's Trading Diary
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I'll flesh this out a lot more over the next few days, but to get things going and start keeping track of progress......
£150 starting bank as of today. After watching Ryan's essential videos yesterday and thinking a lot about what I want to do, and how to get there, I've scaled everything right back.
I was a bit of a strategy junkie. There are so many YouTube videos. So many ideas. So many different ways to trade. And I was desperate to add all of them to my arsenal. It was overwhelming and confusing, and there were times where I'd be trying to trade maybe 7 matches at once like a maniac.
So, here goes. Putting all my efforts for now into one strategy and then will build from there.
I have been working on a split first half strategy the past couple of weeks with decent results, but nowhere near a sample size to prove the theory yet. Starting to track a lot of information on it though, goal times, profit if I had just let them run, things like that.
Will go into more detail about the filter I've put together and the strategy itself once I've got more information to work with over the next month.
But to get going, my picks for today and will edit in results later...
+£0.61
Taiwan Steel vs Ming Chuan University Taiwan Premier League Over 1.5 FH
+£0.98 Hertha Berlin II vs Hansa Rostock II Germany Regionalliga Over 1.5 FH
Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga Over 1.5 FH
Sakhnin vs Hapoel Haifa Israel Ligat Ha'al Over 1.5 FH
Verl vs Viktoria Koln Germany 3. Liga Over 1.5 FH
Mannheim vs Munich 1860 Germany 3. Liga Over 1.5 FH
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel Ligat Ha'al Over 1.5 FH
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga Over 1.5 FH
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bochum Germany Bundesliga Over 1.5 FH
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach Germany Bundesliga Over 1.5 FH
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg Germany Bundesliga Over 1.5 FH
Paris SG vs Metz France Ligue 1 Over 1.5 FH -
@Mark-Maguire thank you! Will start tracking those now too
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@Stephen-Rivers this is brilliant !
The benefit you will get in a few months from recording that stuff is huge - only piece of advice I could add at the moment is try to challenge any pre conceived ideas .. ask everything - and when there are quiet days use excel functions like sumifs and countifs to ask questions of the data - goal times, FHG. SHG these are how I arrived at my entry and exit points .. in addition if I may be so bold the only thing I'd add to your data which I have found really really useful is ELO ratings.
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@Ryan said in SJR's Trading Diary:
Cracking profit and a good strike rate to start, how did you go about building the selections? I know you said you used the Super Trader stuff where did you go from there?
Original filter I had set up, looked at both teams having a high % of games with a first half goal, and decent numbers for over 1.5 first half. I had total number of goals in 0-30 minutes set above 15 as well, and the average time of first goal.
Noticed over the first 200 matches I tracked though that if I had removed all the games where the odds were closer and there was no definite favourite my strike rate and ROI would have gone up.
So now have adjusted to filter all matches where the favourite has odds under 2.0. And then the Favourite scored in H1 + Underdog conceded in H1 percentages averaging 65+.
And then from there just running through each game it has highlighted, looking through the stats a bit more to dive in and narrow down my selections.
Current entry points are 50% stake pre-match, 50% stake 22 minutes. That's the main bit I want to look at currently, I just need to keep tracking over a longer period of time as I need a much bigger sample size.
In terms of what I'm keeping track of on my spreadsheet I've got the following:-
- Time of First Goal
- Time of Second Goal
- HT Score
- FT Score
- First Scorer (Favourite or Underdog)
- Home Scored H1 %
- Home Conceded H1 %
- Away Scored H1 %
- Away Conceded H1 %
- Profit/Loss if full stake pre-match instead of split stake
- Profit/Loss if entry points moved to 10mins/25mins
So, yeah, very very early days with it but main things I'm interested in right now once I've got a lot more games tracked are the entry points, and also the impact of the "Home Scored H1%/Home Conceded H1%/Away Scored....." etc and where to set those on the filter. I've gone for quite wide ranges at the moment to capture as much as possible, and then once I've got more games tracked I can look at how high to filter those percentages, if that makes sense. I think a few months down the line I'll end up with half as many selections as I am giving myself now (maybe even less than that) as I narrow the filter and my selection rules.
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@Stephen-Rivers I am going to tag @mark-maguire here too as he has done a bit of work going back in the SH so he might be able to help.
Cracking profit and a good strike rate to start, how did you go about building the selections? I know you said you used the Super Trader stuff where did you go from there?
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I am not loads of matches in (coming up on 200 after yesterday), so this might have been a bit early to start tweaking and looking at trends, but............
One thing that stood out as I looked back over my picks for first half goals was there was a definite slant to winning selections when there was a clear pre-match favourite. More evenly matched teams, even when their stats for first half goals looked great, had a lower strike rate.
I've adjusted my filter to now give me any match where the favourite has odds of 2.0 or below, and then looking at the stats for how often the favourite scores in the 1st half, and how often the underdog concedes in the first half. Will run that for another 200 ish games and see where we are at. I'm still tracking the selections my previous filter would have given me to see how that matches up.
After doing that, yesterday was a cracking day. 8 selections, 7 winners, £20.12 profit. And when I looked at it, some of those winning selections are matches that my previous filter would not have picked up for me.
Next thing for me to look at is how I am trading these selections. I have had so many very early goals, yesterday for instance three of my 7 winning picks were goals in the first five minutes. So I have been putting in half stake pre-match, and second half at 22 minutes. But I am finding that so many of the picks are winning before the second half of the stake goes in, and I want to maximise the profit on those earlier goals.
I have started to track what the profit would have been if I just put the full stake in pre match. Yesterday for instance, I would have made £25.35 instead of £20.12. Only two of my 7 winning trades went past the 22 minute mark. Will keep tracking this and see how it goes.
Other thing I am considering is some way to back over 1.5 FH at kick off, green up if there is an early goal, and then work out a profitable way to get the second half of my stake in on over 0.5 FH somewhere around 20-22 ish. I'll keep playing around with ideas on that.
If a high % of my winning trades are in that first 21 minutes currently, with small profits on each win, that leaves me exposed to needing to maintain a VERY high win rate to make profit.
Also, payday meant I topped my bank up a bit to £500. That's the last deposit I'll be making for a while, so will see if I can find some consistency with growing that before I consider adding any more and upping stakes in a few months.
13 selections for today. Happy for it to be churning out more selections at the moment, so I have more data to look at and work with. Eventually I'll look to tighten up some of the numbers on the filter, maybe stronger favourites than 2.0 or below for instance, or maybe higher %'s for favourite scored first half, and underdog concedes first half. But am happy to have a wider range on these for now and then look at whether it would have been more profitable by changing those numbers.
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@Leanne-Rivers thats ace!! I am glad that they have had an impact on you and your trading.
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@Ryan You can. Your videos on the site.
I actually followed the proper steps this time, went through steps 1-3 and followed what you said. It all made a lot of sense, and you present really well. Can't tell you how much I appreciate it, and how calm I feel about everything now. Thank you so much!
Will update this properly later today once I'm home and can add in results and progress.
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@Leanne-Rivers I am really keen to see and hear this and will love to read this.
Can I ask when and why the penny dropped that one strategy was the key?
