Another noob eureka moment for me.
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2 months in as BTC member and in that time I've considered not continuing with my subscription a few times for the reason of not understanding various things and not making enough profit from my trades to cover the subs but the more and more I watch videos and read comments the more and more things are starting to click, not in a profitable way yet but in a knowledge way and this is invaluable to me because i know i can use this information to become profitable as i continue my trading journey, I know it's not something that will make me a millionaire over night, it's a long term thing, I watch videos that I previously watched when I first started and completely understand them even more now, every few days i have another of my noob eureka moments and it makes me more determined to keep being a member and learning more, I'm over the mentalily side of not profiting enough to cover the subs cos I know long term I'll overcome this.
So my noob eureka moment this week was realising that the preset BTC filters for the various strategies didn't have to be just used for them strategies.
For example, @Ryan's split stake strategy, I looked through his back testing results and noticed, like he did, that his filter results were all 0-0 at 30 minutes, so the lightbulb appeared above my head when I thought what if I backed under 0.5 goals at kick off, then greened out at say 25 minutes, if it was still 0-0, does anyone think this could be profitable or has someone maybe tried this or is currently doing it, like i said, as I continue my journey into BTC things are just making more sense to me and ideas are presenting themselvesto me all the time, @ryan can you look through you filter results for November and December and tell me if your filter results were all still 0-0 at 30 mins.
I'm going to paper trade this idea and see what it brings but any input from anyone or anything you suggest would be much appreciated. -
I cannot sadly as I stopped trading that strategy, the reason being is that I went all in on automation and turned off everything else.
So I wish I could help but I haven't tracked it. But I like the thinking that you have there, that's key to becoming a profitable trader taking an idea and putting your own spin on it!
You will be able to backtest that when the footie backtesting is done!
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@Simon-Bates this is amazing! You have hit the nail on the head the presets are to give ideas for traders not to be followed like tips. Good work!
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@Alex-Rendell thanks for replying, every day is a school day, you've just taught me something else, It hadn't even crossed my mind about the odds changing, I also like your idea of the under 1.5, kind of a 1 goal insurance, I'll paper trade both 0.5 and 1.5 and record every bit of info, I'll try it for the rest of December and all of January and post my findings here for all.
With regards to a goal being scored and messing the 0.5 trade up, if you look at Ryan's testing data for his split stake strategy not one filter result was over 0.5 goals before 30 mins, that's why I've asked if he'll tell me his November and December filter results so I can look back over them and see what information I can get from it. -
@Simon-Bates it's not a strategy I've personally tested myself, but I have noticed that the 0-0/under 0.5 goal odds can drop very quickly (they'll often reduce by around 50% way before half-time!). The only issue is that if one goal goes in, your bet is completely dead. I'd be interested to see what your findings are, you could even test this alongside an under 1.5 goals strategy that gives you the extra goal as a buffer (although you could simple counteract this by reducing your stakes on the under 0.5 market). Let us know what you find, if anything!
