*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

@Nick-Allan tried posting this a moment a go but pressed send to quickly so deleted and here's second attempt ..

I record odds for 01.5 and FHG on my own model (as well as o2.5) for all my 02.5 trades.. these are calculated and give me odds and probabilities - I've copied and pasted a section here - often there is a similarity but as you can see there are games where thats not the case and that can depend on the league/country.. there are countries where it starts slower..

Its a reasonable guide and if FHG stats aren't available I will refer to my 01.5 odds as a reference if that makes sense.. anyway hope this helps Left column is %FHG and Odds .. right column 01.5 % and odds

100% 1.08 99% 1.09
97% 1.11 87% 1.24
89% 1.21 78% 1.38
93% 1.15 84% 1.27
97% 1.11 91% 1.14
89% 1.21 70% 1.54
92% 1.17 77% 1.39
91% 1.18 80% 1.34
99% 1.09 98% 1.1
89% 1.20 74% 1.45
93% 1.16 82% 1.31
91% 1.18 87% 1.23
97% 1.10 88% 1.22
87% 1.23 80% 1.34
95% 1.13 87% 1.23
84% 1.28 75% 1.44
88% 1.23 75% 1.43
91% 1.18 84% 1.28
87% 1.23 80% 1.34
87% 1.23 80% 1.35
86% 1.25 76% 1.41
95% 1.13 94% 1.15
87% 1.23 77% 1.4
96% 1.12 90% 1.2
87% 1.24 75% 1.43
79% 1.36 83% 1.29
94% 1.14 80% 1.35
88% 1.22 72% 1.49
92% 1.17 78% 1.39
91% 1.19 77% 1.4
89% 1.21 80% 1.35
99% 1.08 99% 1.09
94% 1.14 90% 1.19
95% 1.13 87% 1.24
94% 1.14 83% 1.31
90% 1.19 83% 1.29
93% 1.16 93% 1.16

Nick Allan

@alexander-hughes no its not available when you look at betfair odds in the stats filter and thats what im looking for

Richard Latimer

Overnighter Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8. Lay under 2.5 if between 7.0-9.6:

alexander hughes

@Nick-Allan

Doesn't that work ? (H1 o0.5)

Mark Maguire

02.5 split stake Colchester vs Swindon

LTD in Magallanes vs Colo Colo

Akiva Anderson

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

SHG in the Porto v Antwerp match. 1-0 at HT

Love an injury time winner

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Porto v Antwerp match. 1-0 at HT

Nick Allan

Quick question for pros/everyone/anyone – are the FHG 0.5G and O1.5G odds similar at kick off? I know we don’t have a FHG filter on the software but there’s a O1.5G I wondered if I could use that as a similar barometer ?

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Just the one for tonight. Lay over 1.5:

Anti climax tonight

2-1 already

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H ok so my rules are that first drip at start, second after fifteen mins, third at 35 if 3 shots on target, fourth at 45 if more shots on target..out after 60 mins if no goal.

If there is a goal in the first fifteen mins I will take enough green to leave a free bet or limit exposure and depending on above criteria post goal will drip at 35 if no further goal and shots on target indicators achieved but then stick to exit at 60

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Dortmund v Newcastle match. 1-0 at HT

Nick Allan

@Alex-Rule been paper trading it for last 6 months here are the results:

Month Trades Placed Trades Won SR P&L £ per Pt
May-23 21 13 62% -£48.20 £10.00
Jun-23 6 4 66% -£4.30 £10.00
Jul-23 7 3 43% -£53.60 £10.00
Aug-23 5 2 40% -£31.80 £10.00
Sep-23 30 18 60% -£43.80 £10.00
Oct-23 32 23 72% -£11.90 £10.00

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I've one tonight 02.5 split stake Colchester vs Swindon

Potential LTD in Magallanes vs Colo Cool but will do more research on it before committing (away favourite so am more cautious)

How do you approach trading out on the O2.5, @Mark-Maguire? I'm thinking I should continue to drip in if there's a single FHG and the stats are right. If there's a FHG or a SHG and it's still 1-0 at 60 (turning the bet into an O1.5), I'm thinking wait an extra 10 before taking whatever is offered at 70. Does that sound OK?

Mark Maguire

I've one tonight 02.5 split stake Colchester vs Swindon

Potential LTD in Magallanes vs Colo Colo but will do more research on it before committing (away favourite so am more cautious)

Richard Latimer

Just the one for tonight. Lay over 1.5:

Martin

@Scott-Higgins even on the weekend?

? Offline

@Martin Yes, on the set & forget email that you send each day. And the other members LTD filters don't seem to produce matches either?

Martin

@Scott-Higgins is this @Ryan's Betgreen one you are referring to?

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Frosinone v Empoli match. 0-0 at HT

? Offline

@Martin LTD set and forget, does it ever produce any games?

Any other preset LTD filters being used? Those on the presets don't ever seem to produce any selections unless I'm doing something wrong?