SHG In-Play Trading
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@Chris-King sorry i re-read my post and it wasnt very clear i noticed.my filter shows me SHG % on 0.5g and 1.5g SHG so i enter @ h-t regardless of score so i enter the overs with next 2 goals,e.g if 1-1 i enter ov 3.5g if 2-1 i enter ov4.5g market but i dont enter my 1st 50% stake unless it is around 2.0 which im finding with my filter over 70% of games are around that,then yes i start dripping in @1.5 and i split the rest of my stake into 5 so i can enter 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 and touch wood i havent YET had to take a loss closest i have got was 5mins ago it went to 1.06 83min and then there was a goal which then i managed to get out for a even trade,but i keep an eye on the goal market under the one i am in and when that hit my green so i will get out then as even if there is a goal i will still be in red so i will exit at that point and take the loss.as i said very early days but i have decided to stay in for the 2nd goal depending on score,eg if fav is behind or level i will stay in but say fav is 2 or 3 goals up i will get out after the 1st goal but my aim for this filter is for 2xSHG.my last 7 trades have been 4win and 3 even ones where i have either got out as the goal was late or i stayed in after 1st goal but got out when green run out and i do think if a goal comes after 1st stake u do get around 50%roi but i am tending to stay and wait for other goal but i think that maybe cos im using small stakes so it doesnt look like a big return but when you are using say £100 stake and the 1st stake of £50 goes in and you can get a 50% return before you enter next stake i would prob be looking to hedge then rather than wait but im not sure on that it will be something i will look at when/if i get to that figure
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hi guys been following this thread with interest as i do alot of SHG.i have set up a filter for SHG % ov 0.5g and 1.5g and so far it is working very well.i tend to enter on h-t with 50% stake and if no goal i start to drip feed the other 50% @1.5 @1.4 @1.3 @1.2 @1.1 .as i have read the exit point is the hardest bit about when to get out,so yes atm its a low amount of games but my 1st 20 games i got out after the 1st goal which on average is a 50% win roi off the trade.if the goal was later in the half i would stay in just til the green run out then get out,so yes a nice return but out of the 20 games so far there has been only 2 games with 1 SHG most are 2/3 and have been 2x4SHG,so now i am changing my approach abit and am staying in for the 2nd goal and if it doesnt come i get out when the green has gone and yep so far still no losing trade but am finding out the ones i am getting out off for a even trade there is a 2nd goal after so trying to find the sweet spot and best way to do it but will keep trying it to see what i can come up with,and as im writting this sigma olomouc B have just scored the 1st one in the 63rd min and 2nd in the 74min so happy days on that one with a 145% roi,i will keep updating if anyone is interested,happy trading and good luck to all
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@Terry-Heller hope it works out and you find a way to take advantage of those early goals.
Definitely agree with the data collection being more important than the odd missed trade.
You might find with those matches there is something about them a tweak or slightly different approach will work well with. You can probably go quite deep in to the second half on a straight bet from HT or 50 mins with a defined exit point and exit for a manageable loss.
Maybe workout the strike rate between HT and 75’ or 80’ mins? Might be pretty high. -
@Chris-King said in SHG In-Play Trading:
@Terry-Heller Thanks, yes it’s been interesting and quite fun aside from the downturn.
Those are very impressive strike rates, what is your selection process?
I can definitely understand you not getting matched because of early goals at those strike rates.
Never really thought about backing to cover the early SHG goal chance to be honest. Maybe that would work?
I’ve always wanted to keep things as simple as possible using one market.If the strike rate is that high and the goals come that early have you thought of using the 2.5G market?
Thing with doing that though is you’d probably need that early goal. Time average to be nice and reliable long term.Maybe you could split the liability between laying U1.5 and U2.5?
Early SHG.That was one of the main frustrations of SHG for me and why I became so interested in finding a way to take advantage of it.
From my past data on SHG if I plot the goal count/times there is alway more chance of the first goal being an early goal than a late one and the chance deceasing as the half goes on. I do think that is a general football trend.I’m happy my selection process seems to be consistent enough now (about 260 trades) even with me wavering on it a bit.
It’s the switching between staking/entry process that hampered me, but i was experimenting while doing that so there was a purpose to it.I hope staking/entry; laying from 1.60 to 1.25 in 5 tick increments with the stop loss will be scalable. That and reliable selection process is all that matters.
There have been plenty of matches there is a goal before I’m matched which is a little frustrating but I’d rather that than a losing trade. I used to sometimes go for a second goal if that happened but now I’m tending to leave it and move on as there tends to be enough selections.
If it happens I tend consider it a win still in that i was bang on selecting that match.
There is definitely discipline required in this but the longer it seems to be trending in the right direction the more confident i am in embracing the entire process including losing and missing trades/not getting matched.After sleeping on the thought of placing an early back bet I have decided that it would greatly reduce the profitability of trading out after the first goal. So it is off the agenda.
Currently I am gapping the lays at 10 ticks but in a couple of months if things are still looking rosy and I am prepared to stake more then 5 ticks gives a better chance of being matched closer to a goal time which is better for profits.
At this stage collecting the data is more important than missing a few. -
@Andrew-Gray laying in increments below 2.0 on any market does enable you to put more ‘upside’ in terms of potential profit or on your trade. When you get to around 1.50 you can really take advantage of this, IF you have the right strategy/selection and that is the trickier part.
Were i felt i was falling down on this was not having a defined exit strategy. When i saw the STL stop loss mentioned i thought maybe thats what i need to do and a 40 tick drop could be the place to start.
I’m more than happy to take a loss, i don’t care about losing short term if i know it’s a profitable strategy, it’s losing long term that is the trickier thing to master.
So far using the stop loss I’m finding a loss is approx 1.5 pts. A win can range between approx 0.5 to 2.75pts and initially seems to be counteracting losses. Hope it continues.
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@Andrew-Gray said in SHG In-Play Trading:
@Andrew-Gray Also Terry is your selection criteria different to Chris's?
Care to share if so (no worries if not
)Yes my selection criteria will be different to Chris's.
One is the same criteria I use for FHG
The other is just looking for high probability of a SHG
I dont use the stats software here anymore and it would be unfair to Martin Adam and Ryan to say anymore than that.
Their software has everything you need to build your own strategies and paper trade them.
All I would suggest is think carefully about how you design your spreadsheet so that after a good few results you can filter on different factors. -
@Terry-Heller Thanks, yes it’s been interesting and quite fun aside from the downturn.
Those are very impressive strike rates, what is your selection process?
I can definitely understand you not getting matched because of early goals at those strike rates.
Never really thought about backing to cover the early SHG goal chance to be honest. Maybe that would work?
I’ve always wanted to keep things as simple as possible using one market.If the strike rate is that high and the goals come that early have you thought of using the 2.5G market?
Thing with doing that though is you’d probably need that early goal time average to be nice and reliable long term.Maybe you could split the liability between laying U1.5 and U2.5?
Early SHG.That was one of the main frustrations of SHG for me and why I became so interested in finding a way to take advantage of it.
From my past data on SHG if I plot the goal count/times there is alway more chance of the first goal being an early goal than a late one and the chance deceasing as the half goes on. I do think that is a general football trend.I’m happy my selection process seems to be consistent enough now (about 260 trades) even with me wavering on it a bit.
It’s the switching between staking/entry process that hampered me, but i was experimenting while doing that so there was a purpose to it.I hope staking/entry; laying from 1.60 to 1.25 in 5 tick increments with the stop loss will be scalable. A consistent approach that is scalable is all that matters (And i like the process I’ve managed to carve out).
There have been plenty of matches there is a goal before I’m matched which is a little frustrating but I’d rather that than a losing trade. I used to sometimes go for a second goal if that happened but now I’m tending to leave it and move on as there tends to be enough selections.
If it happens I tend consider it a win still in that i was bang on selecting that match.
There is definitely discipline required in this but the longer it seems to be trending in the right direction the more confident i am in embracing the entire process including losing and missing trades/not getting matched. -
@Andrew-Gray Hi Andrew.
I get your point but if this was a straight bet the stake amount would be much lower and it is more than likely that there would be a time delay before the next goal market reached 1.33 as well. ( at HT the next goal market will be around 1.22)When trading the fact that you have exit points then you can afford a higher liability. Your whole stake is rarely at risk.
I have only been recording the P/L but have started including the number of lays matched to get a better idea of returns so here a few examples. Timing of goals makes a big difference especially if one goes in close to the last bet matched.
I have divided the profit by the liability at the time of trade out to make it the same as backing 1 goal with 1 point of bank.
1 lay matched profit equivalent to backing at 1.85
2 lays matched profit equivalent to backing at 1.86
3 lays matched profit equivalent to backing at 1.61
4 lays matched profit equivalent to backing at 1.83 -
@Andrew-Gray Also Terry is your selection criteria different to Chris's?
Care to share if so (no worries if not
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Interesting thread guys. If you are getting 88-93% SR with these selections would it not just be easier to smash on your whole stake at half time, assuming the odds are at least say 1.33 - Break even SR for which is 75% I beleive?
Do you think you are somehow squeezing extra value out of it with all the various incremental laying schemes? I would suggest that if many of the bets are not getting matched because you are waiting for better odds, are you not actually losing out on that value?
Interested to hear your thoughts.
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@Chris-King Interesting results and analysis.
Like you I have been experimenting a bit with selections and ways to play the trade.
I am now fairly confident with my selection process using two different match profiles that are 88% and 93% S/R for 1 SHG and I am favouring trading out for a level green after the first goal.
On the higher S/R one though I am finding that I do not get matched before my first lay of the unders in more than half of the games. So I would be interested in your thoughts of splitting the liability 50/50 between laying the unders from 1.6 down and placing a back bet on the overs at HT. Still with the intent to trade out after 1 goal.
The average goal time of those games is 55 minutes
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Thought id update this. The rules for this got me to just below 60 pts (58.83) by September 1st. Taken a down turn since and now at 21.45 so still up.
I say ‘rules’ as it’s probably been my inconsistent approach to staking and market selection that has done the damage.
I know that i have not always been entirely strict with the rules choosing matches with 4 SOT or less than 5 home/away games on the table.
It’s also come from my eagerness to try out variations on market and staking approaches wanting to see if there is a better or worse way to handle the trades and wanting to see what i prefer.
However, predominantly the rules have given selections with 80% SHG which I’m really happy with and the longer this goes on the more confidence i have in the rules and the less i want to settle for any match that doesn’t meet the criteria.After seeing @Ryan YouTube vid on the Sports Trading Life SH Lay 1.5 Goals and listening to the podcast on the same subject i checked my stats. From my 244 trades when there is a SHG there is then 50% chance of a second SHG.
The lay 1.5 SHG is an approach i have always wanted to succeed at so I’m going to give that approach a try with an element of my approach;
At HT place keep bets on Lay under 1.5 goals at 1.6, 1.55, 1.50 etc down to 1.25/1.20 at 5 tick intervals (because if there is no goal the stop loss is exiting at 1.20; 40 ticks below the entry price).
Exit at 1.20 if no goal
If there is a goal let the trade run until there is a second goal for an outright win.
Or if no second goal exit at the entry price 1.60 for a scratch.
Theory being invariably profits on outright wins will be more than those on a single lay bet. If i get a few or more lay bets matched and there are then two goals, greater profits.
It may also just be better long term to take the green on the first goal using this approach but making sure i apply the 40 tick stop loss. I haven’t really been able to come to a decision on when/if to exit and this may just be the simplest approach.
I suppose you could also approach this by trying to get as many lay bets matched in the half until there is two goals essentially letting it run each time for a full loss or win.
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@Terry-Heller No we don’t, and the fact the results are comparable is really encouraging. Hadn’t thought about the data accumulation on both sides but thats a great point.
Well we’ve both had a game with 2 quick goals in the past 48 hours already. Could be that the odd result like that acts as a nice bonus every now and then. Your profits were improved by that happening as mine were on Saturday
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@Chris-King We don't seem to select the same games yet the results are comparable. Two goals very close together does happen quite often which will give a bigger upside if the cash out fails due to this. It happened on one of the games I traded today.
With the number of possible games to trade we will be able to compare results of the different possibilities with a high number of data points in a fairly short space of time.
These were mine from today. The Petrolul game was the one that had the second goal before I could cash out. It made a big difference!
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@Terry-Heller nice summary of how things seem to be going and I would agree with your opinions on the various elements involved.
I don’t fancy the prospect of the potential loosing runs when going for 2 goals though. From the little I’ve traded in this way it is feeling like it is scaleable when cashing out and if thats the case I’d be very happy with that and to steadily progress with it.
I did two more today and won both. I actually had 5 selections that met criteria and all had SHG/S. One I wasn’t able to trade and the others a goal after 60’ before target odds reached.
On the £49 profit match. America de Cali. I was able to get 1.50 quite early on so drip fed £1 every 5 ticks to 1.25 and 1.20 at £2, 1.15 and 1.10 at £4, 1.05 at £8 and then 1.04, 1.03, 1.02 all at £8 too, and would have had 1.01 at £8 but the goal came before so i cashed out. There was a second goal so would have made a hefty profit had i stayed in, but the profit made cashing out in terms of bankroll percentage was very good. The 1 tick staking increments from 1.05-1.01 didn’t increase the risk drastically and the profit has to have been as a result of those. Only done that the once though.
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@Chris-King Hi Chris this is looking more and more interesting with both cashing out after a goal and letting the bet run both having merits.
We can probably assume with a high level of confidence that using the right selection criteria will give a 70%+ S/R that there will be 1 goal.
In this case the cash out option would help keep optimism high.Letting it run and also keeping unmatched odds in the keep would maximise possible profits for 2 goals but the down side on that is at that S/R ( Iam using 40%) the maths says losing runs could be around 15. So not for the faint hearted.
Very encouraging that a late goal cashout can save as much as you have experienced.
I have played around with different amounts but have not found how you got to £49 profit on one of the games pre cash out.
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@Terry-Heller I used the similar staking approach some more yesterday and I’m thinking it is a more profitable approach on first impressions. Posted my results below.
From my own experience collecting data on filters, generally over 1.5 goals SH ranges between 45%-53% and there are often 4-5 match streaks without 1.5 goals, sometimes more.
This is all very approximate and i have handled the staking slightly differently throughout but In the results I had three that if left to run would have won of £10, £25 and £49 totalling £84 which is massive, but you’re not always going to get the opportunity to reach maximum staking before 2 goals are scored. You could end up with 2 goals after the 1st/2nd/3rd splits.
I’m thinking if i was trading for 2 goals, if there was a first goal, I’d be waiting for the opportunity to continue with staking from the point the odds reached when the first goal was scored to maximise profits, so goal after 1.50, 1.45, 1.40, and I’d be waiting for the odds to drop again to 1.35 to continue with the staking pattern awaiting the second goal.
The way i traded these 10 matches was roughly putting my maximum liability at £5, had I’d been dripping my stake in from 1.50 to 1.05. 7 would have been a total loss so 5x7=£35 but 84-35=£49 is a huge return.
Trading out after a goal earned me £12.94 which is still a almost a 13pt return on my original bank in what is pretty much 12 hours tradingIt’s worth noting that trading out after a late goal on two occasions (87’ and 92’) gave me a return of 0.27 and 0.64 pts
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@Chris-King A second quick goal before the market reforms is always going to be nice bonus.
I do not have a fixed plan yet but from the games I have used since you planted the seed with this thread it seems to work.
So now it is all about collecting data and finding the best way to play.
My gut feeling at the moment is there will be circa 43% with 2+ goals and if the prices matched are right it could be more profitable than trading out but I have something else with that Strike Rate that I only paper trade that makes a steady profit but the longer losing runs would test my nerves with real cash. -
@Steve-Fletcher-0 I am kind of winging it at the moment between trading out after 1 goal and staying in. Not many games recorded yet and I missed today as a trading day.
If you look at the spreadsheet I am recording what liability there was at the time of the first goal then what was on offer for a 50/50 cash out and also what the profit without cash out could have been with a second goal. Once I have enough data I will be able to compare which is the best option.
One of the fairbot rules after getting it to place all of the lay bets is a green up all one but that is set relatively high and it hasnt fired yet. That will probably be adjusted once data accumulates.
