Is anyone actually profitable live trading?
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@Joseph-Henderson The issue with loss recovery staking isn't generally the human emotion side of things though, so a bot wouldn't necessarily overcome the shortfalls. Loss recovery usually just masks the fact that a strategy is negative value until it all comes crashing down!
Have you been looking at any particular loss recovery methods? We could always discuss any specific ones you're looking at and identify why it would or wouldn't work.
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@Ryan I’d be inclined to agree. Although can’t help think that could be a huge benefit of automation (I.E lack of human error/emotion etc.)…
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@Joseph-Henderson I am not a fan, never have been.
I think they are always destined to lose in the end, mainly because in principle the numbers work but its the person, you've got to follow it exactly to the letter which can be hard after a few losses etc...
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@Sean-Myler I have just seen this, I email it out matey
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Some interesting posts here.
Seem to be seeing quite a bit online at the moment about loss recovery staking plans. In people’s opinions can they ever work or are they destined to always lose in the end? Just interested to get some opinions.
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@Ryan thank you Ryan, where will that be posted please?
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@Sean-Myler thank you Ryan, where will that be posted please?
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@Craig-Spowart Excellent post!!!
You are going to do well at this game of trading you know, I can tell by the way you put this together.
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@Sean-Myler I am using the lay the 3rd favourite one, I am about to write a newsletter update as well on the last month of how it has gone.
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@Adam said in Is anyone actually profitable live trading?:
@Sean-Myler said in Is anyone actually profitable live trading?:
@Craig-Spowart thank you Craig for your detailed reply.
With the bot in mind, do you think these trades may be better to be placed manually at the race off (BSP at the off) for the horse races, in order to avoid that confusion and variance?
Most of the confusion has come from certain features that people wanted not being available in the software (e.g. being able to query which horse is the favourite at specific times).
We added these features a couple of days ago which should give people more flexibility to test different things.
It's important to note though that the backtesting software is telling you what prices were achieved in the market at any given time, filtered by whatever conditions you specify. Obviously this is very useful, but it's absolutely possible for there to be slight variations between that and what you personally traded. It looks at the market as a whole, not your own personal bet history.
We're talking about prices which change in millisecond intervals, with thousands of market participants fighting over them. The more dependent your trading strategies are on those very rapidly changing variables (like favourites at particular timestamps), as opposed to more static variables (like how many times a horse has won at a particular course and distance), the more likely it is that there will be slight differences between your results and the backtesting.
This isn't a disconnect, it's just reality.
There will be differences even between two people running the exact same strategy in the exact same bot. @Ryan and I both run the same strategies in copies of a bot that I designed and we often have some different trades, but the general trend over time follows the backtesting.
Imagine if the Apple Shop has a special offer on today and is selling iPad Pros for £200. Everyone piles down there to grab one. They don't all buy at exactly the same time from the same salesperson and by the time some people get to the shop, there might be no iPads left. It's still true to say that the shop was selling iPads for £200 at that time, it's just that there was no guarantee that every single customer would get one. Knowing that the sale was happening was still useful information to all concerned.
Thank you I apologies for my term of phase re disconnect. Variance is probably better word however I would expect more variance at 10 sec start time than if bets were placed at crica 30mins from start time. This is what I am trialing as part of strat Plan Z ie taking the 3rd fav long before the off to see if the back testing variance reduces?
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@Adam said in Is anyone actually profitable live trading?:
@Craig-Spowart said in Is anyone actually profitable live trading?:
It seems to be pulling through horses which do not match the conditions set
I've responded in that other thread... it doesn't seem like those horses were actually qualifiers in the "CD Winners" strategy in our software tbh so I'm not sure what's happened there unfortunately, but it doesn't seem to be an issue our end.
@Adam - updated the megathreaded showing the time the the software posted the tip to my link.
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@Craig-Spowart said in Is anyone actually profitable live trading?:
It seems to be pulling through horses which do not match the conditions set
I've responded in that other thread... it doesn't seem like those horses were actually qualifiers in the "CD Winners" strategy in our software tbh so I'm not sure what's happened there unfortunately, but it doesn't seem to be an issue our end.
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@Sean-Myler said in Is anyone actually profitable live trading?:
@Craig-Spowart thank you Craig for your detailed reply.
With the bot in mind, do you think these trades may be better to be placed manually at the race off (BSP at the off) for the horse races, in order to avoid that confusion and variance?
Most of the confusion has come from certain features that people wanted not being available in the software (e.g. being able to query which horse is the favourite at specific times).
We added these features a couple of days ago which should give people more flexibility to test different things.
It's important to note though that the backtesting software is telling you what prices were achieved in the market at any given time, filtered by whatever conditions you specify. Obviously this is very useful, but it's absolutely possible for there to be slight variations between that and what you personally traded. It looks at the market as a whole, not your own personal bet history.
We're talking about prices which change in millisecond intervals, with thousands of market participants fighting over them. The more dependent your trading strategies are on those very rapidly changing variables (like favourites at particular timestamps), as opposed to more static variables (like how many times a horse has won at a particular course and distance), the more likely it is that there will be slight differences between your results and the backtesting.
This isn't a disconnect, it's just reality.
There will be differences even between two people running the exact same strategy in the exact same bot. @Ryan and I both run the same strategies in copies of a bot that I designed and we often have some different trades, but the general trend over time follows the backtesting.
Imagine if the Apple Shop has a special offer on today and is selling iPad Pros for £200. Everyone piles down there to grab one. They don't all buy at exactly the same time from the same salesperson and by the time some people get to the shop, there might be no iPads left. It's still true to say that the shop was selling iPads for £200 at that time, it's just that there was no guarantee that every single customer would get one. Knowing that the sale was happening was still useful information to all concerned.
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@Ryan good results Ryan, I have just watched the video. Be kind.
The automation on horses, is there a specific strategy you are implementing, or more than one?
Thank you
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@Craig-Spowart thank you Craig for your detailed reply.
With the bot in mind, do you think these trades may be better to be placed manually at the race off (BSP at the off) for the horse races, in order to avoid that confusion and variance?
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@Craig-Spowart amazing work!
You are spot on, these are not tips guaranteeing future profits but strategies that members have shared that have worked that can be used as great starting points!
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@Sean-Myler Hi Sean, I've been here around a month and I am happy to give my views. Starting with the facts. I paid £16.79 for the weeks trial then £71.99 for the premium package for the month. For me I've found lots of great content to give me inspiration for what type of trader I want to become. In terms of the Horse racing software I never just set up the 4 strategies but I did use them as a template to create my own variations of them. One has worked and is in profit but not without its quirks. I've found the back testing to be different to what the bot then places when it comes to anything around favorites (eg Lay the 3rd Fav) so for me I didn't like the disconnect between the back testing and the bot reality (especially when what the bot bet on then won) but I am sure there are members in the community that are fine with the disconnect and are making profit. The back the CD winner is in profit for me and the back testing seemed to match until today. It seems to be pulling through horses which do not match the conditions set (that said the software was recently upgraded with more features and it may be a bug following that). I've raised this to @Adam in another thread. Re the football software - @Martin did a good video on Over 0.5 1st Half goals trading which has inspired me to build a filter and a bot so I am giving that a go (only completed 1 trade last night so far). In short for me BTC is a tool to try help you become a better trader its not a ready made cash machine. I've been auto trading for a wee while with varying success and lots of errors (eg The word "recovery" in a staking plan gives me the shivers.....only attempt at minimal stakes IF AT ALL) In short build some strategies give them a go and see what floats your boat. The moral of the story is don't gamble what you can't afford to lose. This is what I am currently running across dogs, football and horses but don't let the green fool you. That is just what is still in play as there were lots of red failures whilst trialing strats / ideas. Some of the green you see though is built after learning from a failed Strat. or as @Ryan would say "closing the gap".
Hope that is helpful Sean. -
@Sean-Myler I am and making money
Thats my last 3 months and I have moved all my trading to automated which I have shared on this video and why
I'd also tag @John-Folan @Jonathan-Jones
