The Forward Testing Thread
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Anyone can share spread sheet for forward tests? Thanks
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@John-Folan hi john, how do I download these to my presets please? When I click on each link, it just opens another screen with “code” on?
Thank you
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@simon-topper I'd avoid LTBF it's lay odds are horrible
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@Ryan So I just looked through the filters for alternatives to Lay the beaten favourite (whatever I do it seems to struggle). Settled on distance winner.
Back tested with no restrictions and loaded all the data into an excel spreadsheet.Trimmed the odds to match the most profitable range.
Removed courses that had not been profitable in 2021, 2022 or 2023.This then left me with a strategy which made a reasonable return.
Put it onto BF Bot manager and let it run with a small bank and stakes. -
@simon-topper Looks nice that!!! How did you go about putting it together this strategy?
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@Joseph-Henderson said in The Forward Testing Thread:
@Martin said in The Forward Testing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson does timeform use a minimum amount traded? may be why. I know we are adding that in in this upcoming update in the next week or so
Not sure if there is a min amount traded. Some forums online appear to say only bets with £100+ payout are recorded, but that could also be rubbish!
Timeform use a £100 minimum traded for their inrunning lows.
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@Joseph-Henderson
On timeform if you hover the mouse over the title for Hi/Lo the tool tip does say min payout of £100 so i am thinking you cant be using timeform for this. -
@Martin said in The Forward Testing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson does timeform use a minimum amount traded? may be why. I know we are adding that in in this upcoming update in the next week or so
Not sure if there is a min amount traded. Some forums online appear to say only bets with £100+ payout are recorded, but that could also be rubbish!
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@Joseph-Henderson does timeform use a minimum amount traded? may be why. I know we are adding that in in this upcoming update in the next week or so
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@Martin sorry my post may not have been clear. For example the Digby horse has an entry of 10 and exit price of 5 on the software and therefore listed as a winning trade, but according to timeform the price never reached 5 in running, only 5.6. Is it not therefore impossible that it was a winning trade?
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@Joseph-Henderson the results aren't linked to bfbm so your bot will get slightly differing ones naturally, results come directly from Betfair data
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@Martin said in The Forward Testing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson said in The Forward Testing Thread:
How are people finding the Irish DOBS bot? I thought it was going pretty well, then it seems to have missed the trade out on 3 trades so far this month. Has anyone had similar?
Which horses? Did they defo dob? 21pts up on the bot myself since Jul 29th
I just checked timeform to see their inplay hi/low and according to that they didn’t DOB. The entry prices I got match the entry recorded on the software. So does that mean the software results are incorrect?
Horses were:
1/9/23 Down Royal 18:35 - Digby
1/9/23 Down Royal 19:05 - Walking the Walk
2/9/23 Navan 16:35 - Kampala Beach -
@Joseph-Henderson said in The Forward Testing Thread:
How are people finding the Irish DOBS bot? I thought it was going pretty well, then it seems to have missed the trade out on 3 trades so far this month. Has anyone had similar?
Which horses? Did they defo dob? 21pts up on the bot myself since Jul 29th
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This is why i dont use dobs. The software cant model them. If you are the sort of person who likes to match stuff up with backtest then its going to be a problem. The software triggers on LTP and its entry and exit are based on that. In reality you are not going to get your bet at the same price all the time. Obviously with a dob or any trading type strategy your exit depends on your entry price.
If you download the individual results from here then subtract 4 or 5 ticks from the entry price to give a realistic entry range you can get an idea of how many trade outs you are likely to miss.
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How are people finding the Irish DOBS bot? I thought it was going pretty well, then it seems to have missed the trade out on 3 trades so far this month. Has anyone had similar?
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@Jonathan-Jones It sounds to me that you are seeking perfection, I have been there, done that. At the end of the day, you are not going to find it, you will spend too much time analysing the minutest detail of every strategy, so much so that you end up with so many criteria, you have very few selections.
If a strategy is backtested and is profitable, run with it, if it continues to be profitable then happy days, if you can ride out the losing runs, then happy days. If the losing makes you uncomfortable, then ditch it and find another.
