Simon's Manifesto - Consitency (2023)
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well another big swing but in the opposite direction
thankfully not enough to dent my profit.
Have decided to cut a few strategies, which although not complete failures not making/losing enough after 2 months. Have them saved if I decide to revisit them at a later date.
My most profitable strategy still confusing me bakctesting says I should have lost 30 points in September but made 37 points instead! I have now created my own bot which takes selections according to it's own data and see how that fairs.
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Well what a turnaround, big swings this month either way. Now back on the up, hope I don't lose it all this week. Would be nice to come in with a profit this month after last 2 month's near misses.
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Well an abysmal week this week, lost everything I have gained in September and then some. Looking in the horse racing thread seems to be a common theme, must just be one of those weeks/month. Plenty of time to recover this month and need to keep a longer outlook.
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@Joseph-Henderson I will do but after me mentioning how well it was doing it lost 25 points today!
It's very simple, all I have done is some basic course filtering to remove any tracks that have lost every year in the backtesting. I am hoping with Adam's new update this week I can tweak it a bit further.
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@simon-topper Lay distance winner sounds interesting - would you be able to share any further details about the strategy? Thanks
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@simon-topper yeah I'm giving lay bf until end of Oct but if it's still in the red through testing will put in on hold. 54 points on Lay Distance Winner sounds good! I like that angle too very clever thinking!
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So a great week for one of my strategies (Lay Distance Winner) Had this on test since middle of August and already gained 54 points. Early days but it does seem to swing a bit in backtesting so have to keep an eye on it.
Lay Beaten Favourite, still not performing that well even with reduced odds of 10. Looking forward to the horse update next week to hopefully find some new angles.
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Was away for a week, so didn't have chance to update. August ended up being a very small loss, so feel confident that everything is moving in the right direction. Have added some more money to my bank this month to start with 1K. After looking at my staking haven't really increased anything just set up an individual bank for each strategy as this has seems to be the best way to keep bankroll management in check, but might not grow my bank as quickly.
Have also moved all my strategies into one BFBM instance so can keep any eye on everything in one place.
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@simon-topper have you looked at the new LTBF version, about 6pts up this month for me and seems to avoid a lot of the big downswings, well in backtesting anyway only forward tested three weeks live stakes so far.
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So a terrible week results wise, lost everything I gained this month to date.
I didn't know about it till today when I logged in, so happy that my discipline not to check was there otherwise I might have had a wobble yesterday when I had 3 large losers.
Off work this week so need to make sure I am not constantly checking what is going on.
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@alexander-hughes, that’s right I just copy the data from bfbm into my spreadsheet and copy the formulas. Takes less than a minute and then I refresh the data in the pivot table.
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@simon-topper If your raw data is in a table you should be able to copy and paste it to the bottom of the table and refresh data ?
Or if you use power query refresh data once the BFBM exported data is in a linked folder ?
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@simon-topper good work mate!
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So a really good week, just need to let things run now for the rest of the month.
Re-did my excel spreadsheet, can now just export the bets out of BFBM and a couple of dragging formula's down and reporting done. This now means I don't need to login to betfair, which removes a lot of temptation to dabble.
Having every strategy allocated a portion of funds seems to be the way forward, have everything testing and just starting out is allocated a £100 bank and left alone.
My main strategy is the LTBF which continues to perform well, I have put this on a maria staking plan and hope the magic of compounding does it's thing.Just need to remember this is a marathon not a sprint. If I can continue my mentality for the rest of the month, then I will allocate some more of my bank.
Just waiting on Adam's update to the horse racing software to see if I can improve a couple of my strategies.
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@simon-topper how was yesterday? I had a family thing in Birmingham and forgot to turn the bots on d'oh!
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Much better this week, not going to post my results this week, as everything is automated getting onto lots more markets.
I have exported the results out of BFBM, but need to adjust my formula's due to the staking plan I am following allocates different amounts based on odds.Main win this week has just been logging in the evening after everything has finished so no temptation to chase losses, hope to continue this pattern going forward.
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Well this week the losses weren't so bad, I have decided to remove the football and just concentrate on the horses.
Using BFBM I have allocated funds to various strategies and put in a staking plan that will grow automatically (this weeks losses would have been less if I had reduced my stakes correctly). My aim is to just check in each day after the races have finished to check progress, hopefully be a better month in August.
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@simon-topper horrible wasn't it!
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Well what a brutal weekend, I had recovered last week losses by Monday. My bank is now back down to where it was on May 3rd! Will have to reduce stakes and start climbing back up.
This is what comes from relying on a couple of strategies, but I don't want to add more to the mix until I am sure they will work longer term.
With the lay away football I have decided to put in a minimum traded volume on the market (was going to do this eventually anyway) I have noticed quite a few of the markets at KO had low liquidity (less than 2K) which I reckon is not a true reflection of the odds as probably only a couple of hundred people involved (Is there anyway of working that out?)
