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The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Horse Racing
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6.4k Posts 173 Posters 681.0k Views
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #421

    @Martin Hey,

    Has the latest one (.json file) been updated on the OP of the horse racing megathread page?

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #422

    Screenshot (107).png

    These are my results to £1 stakes from Saturday 29th July. Missed Sunday though as went away for the day and forgot to turn BFBM on 😞

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #423

    @Correa my ltbf has done ok, are you using the latest one? mind you I missed Sunday was that the bad day?

    MartinM ? ? 3 Replies Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #424

    @Martin best one so far running on BFBM. I can't say the same about laying the beaten favourite though. Not great in the past few days.

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Greg MitchellG Offline
    Greg MitchellG Offline
    Greg Mitchell
    replied to Martin on last edited by Greg Mitchell
    #425

    @Martin 11 out of last 12 for me and 39 out of last 44

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #426

    Lay 3rd Fav doing well for everyone else?

    Greg MitchellG ? 2 Replies Last reply
    1
  • Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith DriscollK Offline
    Keith Driscoll
    wrote on last edited by
    #427

    Shared banks are fine for win betting (2-3 strategies), but I never use them for laying. You can put a huge dent in a bank in a short time laying.

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joseph Henderson
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #428

    @Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @Joseph-Henderson ah right then should be same one I would think this is the bot I use Back to lay dobs.gz

    I’ll check that out against the one I’m using - cheers

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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Joseph Henderson on last edited by
    #429

    @Joseph-Henderson ah right then should be same one I would think this is the bot I use Back to lay dobs.gz

    J 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #430

    @Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @Daniel-Mills is this your own strategy?

    My back to lay dobs are -0.52pts and irish dobs are 9.1pts up since last Saturday when I started forward testing.

    it's the back to lay 2.0 you posted, I set up the bot myself though. Looks like the only difference with the bot was the hedge which i've got rid of and will keep an eye on for a bit longer.

    Cheers to Jonathan-jones and Joseph Henderson too for the input. Will have a proper nose through - missed the original response to David's query about the DOB's.

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joseph Henderson
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #431

    @Martin That is running it as a DOB strategy and without the stop loss, sorry should have made that clear.

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Joseph Henderson on last edited by
    #432

    @Joseph-Henderson I turned it into a dob strategy works much better, although I then turned that into a Irish dob strategy which is doing really well so far, only been a week though so not enough time to truly judge it.

    J 1 Reply Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joseph Henderson
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #433

    @Jonathan-Jones Glad you flagged this issue!

    Back to Lay 2.0 is showing a profit of 2.94 for August (1st to 6th inclusive) compared with -6.46 running my bot. One to probably do some more detailed back testing on using the method you outline.

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #434

    @Daniel-Mills better off going for Dobs as the stoploss makes it not work

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #435

    @Daniel-Mills is this your own strategy?

    My back to lay dobs are -0.52pts and irish dobs are 9.1pts up since last Saturday when I started forward testing.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joseph Henderson
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #436

    @Daniel-Mills said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    Noticed some discrepancies in my dobs results this week. ~4pts down instead of 4pts up.

    Road testing without the safety hedge I set up in BFBM to see if that puts it in the right direction this week. Software doesn't seem to think it makes too much difference, need to see how that translates live.

    Anyone using the back to lay 2.0 checked theirs yet?

    I am running the Back to Lay 2.0 on BFBM but haven’t compared to the back test yet. Based on Jonathan’s post sounds like I might need to readjust the settings/back test a bit to compare more accurately!

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #437

    @Daniel-Mills

    You will have. This strategy cannot be accurately modelled in this software. With the stop loss its going to be worse but even without it you wont ever get a perfect match.

    Without the stop loss you can use the method i described below to see if the strategy is actually likely to even be profitable (because this backtest software alone cant tell you that for certain) in the real world. With the stop loss then its no better than flipping a coin.

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #438

    Noticed some discrepancies in my dobs results this week. ~4pts down instead of 4pts up.

    Road testing without the safety hedge I set up in BFBM to see if that puts it in the right direction this week. Software doesn't seem to think it makes too much difference, need to see how that translates live.

    Anyone using the back to lay 2.0 checked theirs yet?

    ? J MartinM 4 Replies Last reply
    1
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to David Polkey on last edited by
    #439

    @David-Polkey

    is this lapsed entry or exit?

    This will be an issue with any DOB or trading type strategies that use an exit. The software uses LTP for its entry. In reality LTP might not still be available.

    The way to handle un-matched entries is to request a few ticks worse than best price. That way you are pretty sure to get matched. Problem is if your entry isnt what the backtest thinks it should be then you cant be sure your exit even got hit let alone fully matched. So, you will end up with un-matched exits and the software tells you that you won that bet.

    You cant model this scenario but you can get an idea of what the worst case for your strategy might be. You can add the IR Low field (and of course the enrty/exit price) to the individual trades output. Then in excel you can easily remove any winners that dont go more than x ticks lower than the exit. Its not a perfect solution but it will tell you if your strategy is actually profitable assuming worse case of bets not matching.

    Note:
    Wont help if using big stakes and possible low liquidity.

    J 1 Reply Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    David Polkey
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #440

    @Martin

    I found I had quite a few 'lapsed' lay bets on the Irish DOBS Bot yesterday - which would have made quite a difference to the P&L. Did you see the same?

    Dave P

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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