BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Nathan-Bennett & Adam Cubbage.... I find it difficult to tell how far these sorts of prices will drop - as they say on the Stock Exchange: Trying to predict the bottom of the market is like attempting to catch a falling knife!
I would have thought, if - as now seems distinctly possible - there's no play today - it could fall as low as 4. But of course, if they do get on at any stage and wickets fall it will rocket in the other direction.
The BBC weather site has been pretty accurate so far, and if it's right about tomorrow and Monday, it looks like there are probably only about three clear sessions of play available. If that's the case, England will need to collect six wickets in a couple of hours' play before knocking off the runs in about four hours - something which they are capable of doing.
I actually think that, if the weather forecast is right, an Aussie win may be the least likely result, followed by a draw or an England win.
Everything, though, depends on the weather and the Netweather Radar is worth it's weight in gold on days like these.
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FWIW
Backed draw @9s ish
Taking 1/3 stake back just now 5.8 -
Market on the move
So
If little to no play
Estimate draw odds end of day
What
Low 5’s - mid 4’s ?Then over to days 4&5 being 98 over days
Likely hood of rain last two days ?
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the draw price is coming in now.
around what odds do people think will be a good exit? -
@Richard-Futter Brilliant by you as per
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Ground staff say it will take 90 minutes to get the ground ready for play; taking an early lunch at 12.30, but to be honest I reckon they'll just about be ready to start when it begins raining again.
TMS keep saying there'll be play later in the day, yet the BBC weather website says the rain showers will continue for the rest of the day, so at a best guess I suspect we'll be lucky to see more than a handful of overs bowled today.
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This markets got me twisted at mo ha
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Hammering it down according to TMS! Backed the draw at 8 before it went out, hoping for a back to lay then re-lay later in the match
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Looks like there'll be a window to play from around 12 to 1.30, but after that I don't think we'll see very much play at all unless the radar is way out.
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@Stephen-Hancox Bizarre isn't it? Beeb pretty spot on with the Leeds forecast. Made me a nice few, risk-free ticks this morning:)
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Saw tweet
Currently raining not heavy tho -
@stuart-wallace-0 you could even slot Foakes in at 3, but maybe he plays too straight and conservative for the current hierachy?
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I live in Newton Abbot and according to the last 6 hours radar on the met office app we've had quite a lot of rain since 6am. Yet we've had none at all. I always thought met office was the gold standard for these things, not anymore.
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Looks like the first drops of rain could hit the ground around 10.00 so ganna have a little back of the draw at 9.
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This post is deleted!
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@Matt-Ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Appreciate not now but could Pope have kept wicket if they wanted Bairstow for his bat?
@Matt-Ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Appreciate not now but could Pope have kept wicket if they wanted Bairstow for his bat?
Dont get the point Matt. Its likely that Pope may well have made the same mistakes Bairstow has, yet its unlikely that Foakes would have. So, play Bairstow at 5 as pure batter and Foakes at 7 as keeper/batsman, as someone else says Foakes has a Test average in the 30s, so he's no mug with the bat. Pope dropping out was the point where ENG could have done that.
IMO Bairstow has cost ENG the Ashes with his dropped catches alone through the first 3 Tests. He should be binned to be pure Batter. -
Different Weather Apps see different things. XC Weather has no significant rain until 18.00 - and the market seems to reflect that by the Draw drifting somewhat overnight.
Yet, BBC has high risk all day...
One thing is for sure, if there are thunderstorms around, then they wont be on the pitch.
I exited out of my LTD last night, and will stay out for time being. However, i'm sure there is at least 150 overs left in this game through the weather windows, and considering the sum overs of both first 2 innings was 112 overs , also as we are
some 60 per cent(wickets wise) through the game already, then a result is almost a certainty.
Gonna wait a bit though to reenter the LTD to see if the rain does come to see the Draw price come in a touch. -
@Nathan-Bennett At the moment the radar looks fairly clear, but most forecasts are predicting thundery showers pretty much throughout the course of today's playing hours. I would say interruptions are inevitable and it's not inconceivable it could possibly be close to a washout. I'll keep monitoring the radar because, at the moment, it's difficult to tell exactly how it will pan out.
With some rain forecast for tomorrow, and more persistent rain due on Monday, a draw certainly isn't out of the question.... despite WinViz giving it only a 1% chance yesterday.
What usually happens when there's a rain interruption is that the draw price drops quickly, before hitting a support point and going up quite a few ticks. Well worth looking out for.
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@Adam-Cubbage cheers
Wild flucs hopefully
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@Nathan-Bennett
Looking good for rain, should hit about 13.00
