Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Matthew said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
I've got a few but this one is the best one so far in the summer leagues. I feel uncomfortable sharing as it looks fake but here it is.
The market must expect a draw, 40% of previous games must be drawn. Odds between 3-3.95.
This will tank in late August/early September but I'm milking it for every penny it's worth. Then I'll simply back the draw when it starts to tank in late AugustThese are the results from July alone
Hi Mate, i have a back the draw strategy that seems to be doing ok as well, will wait until the end of the month before sharing as i want to make sure it stays profitable for the remainder of the month.
Getting odds of 3-3.95 allows you to have win 1/3 to still be in profit -
Anyone been testing my fhg strat, coming up to 300 selections looks like it is staying around a 74% SR so with a required 66% to break even. So happy with the way its been going aside from a bit of a bad run late may, early june.
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@Matthew how much of a diff does two kids make!
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It makes sense really because the money is going on the draw so it’s brining the price in. Giving you a lower liability and a lower strike rate required
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@Matthew I am seeing this as a growing trend, I am aiming to pivot my own trading to this as well.
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Yeah the majority of stuff I do is set and forget as I have a 2 year old and 3 year old so sometimes find it impossible to live trade.
You’re lay away is already 3 points up today. Great start
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@Matthew well done mate that's great! Is that set and forget?
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These are my actual backs from July.
The market must expect the game not to end in a draw, with teams drawing very little.
Every strategy I do pretty much just goes against the market as the majority of people on Betfair don't know how to trade
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A Former Userreplied to Nick Allan on 8 Jul 2023, 21:10 last edited by A Former User 8 Jul 2023, 21:11
I've got a few but this one is the best one so far in the summer leagues. I feel uncomfortable sharing as it looks fake but here it is.
The market must expect a draw, 40% of previous games must be drawn. Odds between 3-3.95.
This will tank in late August/early September but I'm milking it for every penny it's worth. Then I'll simply back the draw when it starts to tank in late AugustThese are the results from July alone
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@Matthew yes please bud as im looking at a back the draw strategy, what the SR when its flipped?
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Yeah, it can go on bad runs but because of the sheer quantity of games you can have a disastrous start to the day but the 10 games after that on the same day will pick it up, especially on weekends. I know for a fact that the filter is getting me at least 6-7 points this weekend again.
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Rene Ostenfeldreplied to A Former User on 5 Jul 2023, 16:58 last edited by Rene Ostenfeld 5 Jul 2023, 17:00
@Matthew i have tracked it since 29/5 and agree that not trading favorites helps. It is still early days - and I have found that this strat can have some bad "runs" - but bounces back. A 12% ROI is very good - the calculation is with 7% commission that we in Denmark pay.
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Yeah, I've started to do the same. When away teams are priced below 3 they have struggled recently
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@Martin Something I don't do with my own Lay Away strat is lay a favourite. Not sure how this would impact yours historically, Martin, but I've dodged two losses today and yesterday at Honka and Oita by applying the same rule to yours. (Neither of these were on mine.)
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@Matthew happens all the time in sport not one to lose any sleep over
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@Matthew If these never lost, there wouldn't be a market. And, yes, I was on it too.
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Anyone else have this one on the martins lay away last night ? Home team where averaging 2.5 points per game with the away averaging 0.5 ppg. Look at the forms it’s ridiculous. I don’t know how it lost
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The 3 wins 3 losses section is…
Home or away favourite averaging more than 1.62 ppg at home or away with 3 wins from their last 5 home/away games and the underdog averaging 1.1 or less ppg home/away loosing 3 from their last 5 with odds ranging from 3.65 to 4.85
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If the favourite scores first with the exit strategy you’re looking at a 50% cash out if they are a strong favourite. If you can hold you’re nerve and wait for the favourite to score a second you’re looking at a 80% cash out
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A Former Userreplied to Rene Ostenfeld on 4 Jul 2023, 20:12 last edited by A Former User 4 Jul 2023, 20:17
The Ltd exit strategy filter is
Home team scored 68% or more first and away conceded first 68% of the time or more first. This isn’t what’s on the sheets. ( results aren’t on this sheet )
Filter for the sheets is
Home team averaging 1.62ppg and away averaging 1.1 or less ppg. Vice versa for away favourite
This is the same filter for good Ltd and terrible Ltd as shown on spreadsheets with the exception that on the good Ltd section the odds are ranged between 3.65-4.85 and the terrible Ltd sections doesn’t have a odds range.
Why the p/l is drastically different on the different sheets even though it’s come from the same filter is because of the different leagues I’ve used for the filter and different odds ranges. It makes all the difference.
555/1753