Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Martin does this mean the daily emails are back?
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Does anyone have any thoughts on my Slow on the Draw strategy?
rules_export(2).json The basic idea is that horses with pace ratings 2 and 4 drawn in stalls 1 and 5 represent lay value.
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@Joshua-Varley Yes we've got values for every horse in every upcoming race.
There are 2 horses with zero values from the current upcoming races...I'm not sure if that's because we couldn't get the actual value or if they literally live next to the racecourse!
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@Adam Thanks for the reply mate - I'm assuming it's known when the horse is entered into the race? So unlikely to change in the lead up?
Giving me a bit of a headache as very few other filters are used. Will get back on the case though as I'm sure it's something really silly I've overlooked.
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@Joshua-Varley It's known before the race so there's some other reason for the difference.
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Hi @Adam - just a quick question regarding the distance travelled filter. I started forward testing a strategy yesterday that uses this, but I've noticed while comparing data this morning that many more horses appear in the results than were listed as qualifiers yesterday. Is the distance travelled a value that is known prior to the race, or is it something that would be applied after.
Thanks,
Josh
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@Martin Yeah...
Say 20 minutes before the race starts log the current prices
Then 20 seconds before race starts measure the difference in prices compared to the one taken 20 minutes before the race
The biggest drifter in the field I would lay
The biggest steamer in the field I would back
Then let the bets runTrying to follow the markets of where the "smart" is going,
hope that makes sense, thankyou!
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@Ricky-Parker can you clarify a bit more exactly what you want the strategy to do? I'll tag @Adam in on this one as he will know the capabilities
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@Daniel-franceschi it was sent at 5.30 am uk time
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Hello, I'm new to BTC and been playing around with a few strategy's, I have had experience with trading/betting and I'm looking for some help in testing a strategy using the software backing
steamers and laying drifters. Be interesting to see the results on this. I can see we can use the morning price to go off but I feel it would be better to log a price closer to the race start, I'm looking to log the price at 20, 25, 30 minutes before the off then look to place a back/lay bet close to or on start time depending on what horse has steamed in the most or drifted.Any help would appreciated, cheers!
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Hi, will there be a BTC horse racing selection for today please?
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@Joshua-Varley said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Afternoon all,
I've been playing around with a few strategies this morning and just wanted to share the best I've come up with so far, for a bit of scrutiny.
The logic is based on the idea that a horse who had travelled a great distance may be highly favoured by the connections for a race. The inverse of this, I thought, would be that if a horse only travelled a very short distance (ie <20miles), than perhaps it was entered more out of convenience than because it had a serious chance.
I therefore went for lay strategy, where there was only 1 such qualifier in a race (those with more qualifiers were excluded.) I have only gone for very, very minor optimisation and it seems to be fairly steady throughout the whole data set.
Would love some more sets of eyes to shout if there is anything glaringly wrong, either with the logic or the execution.
Cheers,
Josh
I like this. Sound logic and very few filters. Will keep an eye going forward I think
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@Terry-Heller haha I like the image of that! Fingers crossed for the sake of trying to build something here, that she was an exception!
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@Joshua-Varley
Just an anecdotal story that goes against your logic I remember when I was into horse racing back in the 80's and 90's there was a horse that was stabled at Brighton and she was pretty formidable at that course. The theory being that as she came round the final bend she could see her stable which sent her into top gear and she often won at good prices. -
Afternoon all,
I've been playing around with a few strategies this morning and just wanted to share the best I've come up with so far, for a bit of scrutiny.
The logic is based on the idea that a horse who had travelled a great distance may be highly favoured by the connections for a race. The inverse of this, I thought, would be that if a horse only travelled a very short distance (ie <20miles), than perhaps it was entered more out of convenience than because it had a serious chance.
I therefore went for lay strategy, where there was only 1 such qualifier in a race (those with more qualifiers were excluded.) I have only gone for very, very minor optimisation and it seems to be fairly steady throughout the whole data set.
Would love some more sets of eyes to shout if there is anything glaringly wrong, either with the logic or the execution.
Cheers,
Josh
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@Jonathan-Jones there are plenty everyday. But rarely one that triggers the bot I have. 3 horses in a week doesn’t seem worth the effort.
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@dave-tancock looks like plenty for tomorow
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It may just be me, but I’ve been trying the short odds lay strategy from the preset and over the last week, only 3 races have qualified. Is it normal for there to be so few qualifying races, or is this just a dry spell?
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@Andy-Donnelly you can run the presets through back-testing yourself and see what you like. Or adapt any of them to improve them if they are not to your liking.
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Dont think anything on the presets is doing well at the moment.
If you tweak Lay beaten favourite (remove the favourites condition and shorten the entry window to just before the race) thats performing well. Flat pace backs is doing OK. I uploaded a couple that are on one or other of the forums (one back and one lay) that are both doing very good.Basically download every json file you can find on all the forums and see if you like it. Make a note of the date it was uploaded (or when the user says it was created) and see how its been performing since then. You should find a few that are working. One trick i use is to use the base criteria, then remove stuff like courses, runners, going etc and add a year criteria. Then i try to re-optimise based on just 2022. Once i am happy i remove that year criteria and see if its been profitable this year according to the backtest. you should get some pretty consistent strats doing that.
