Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Martin @Jonathan-Jones
Thanks guys.
Been struggling with the pace lays strategy, almost certain to be 4 losing months out of 6 this year and just not working for me so probably will stop trading it and monitor for a while. Sod’s law that’s when it picks up.
Any recommendations on strategies doing particularly well at the moment that don’t necessarily required automation?
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Depends.
I wouldnt bin something because of a bad month (well, i say that but i did and i wish i hadnt so i have learned a lesson not to be too reactive) but if its had a long bad period then i would stop trading it an move it to the archive. I have just done this with my back CD winner turf version. I dont feel bad about it. Its been months of poor performance and i have plenty of options that are profitable (though my execution isnt matching the backtest but i know why and i am fixing those issues).This is why its important to diversify. Run several strats and have several more that you are watching.
But. This is the gambling element of things. Things change, sometimes they change back, sometimes they dont. Basically dont run something you are not happy with, cultivate better options.
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@Andy-Donnelly depends on bank depth and how far down it is. I think if you think that way then stop as doubts are not a good thing when trading.
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Guys, as we near the end of the first half of the year, wanted to get a view from others.
If you have been following strategies since the start of the year and are not making money (in fact losing money) should it be a straightforward decision to stop using said strategy? Even if previous years in backtesting proved profitable.
Probably a silly question but trying to persevere with a strategy as have FOMO that it will turn around.
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@Jonathan-Jones said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Pace Rank.
What is this and how is it derived? I had thought it would have something to do with pace rating but having looked at the qualifiers for the day (listing rank and rating) i am not so sure.Yes it's based on the pace rating, however I have noticed that the ranking was still using the previous version of our pace calculation, so there may have been a bit of a mismatch.
I've updated this so it uses the current and best version, so it will match the pace ratings shown in the software (i.e. rank 1 is the highest pace rating, etc). This won't affect past results.
Upcoming qualifiers on the strategy tab:
Do the criteria for these update with the same frequency the ones on the daily qualifiers tab do?If you run a strategy "manually", what you see on the qualifiers tab is the most up to date information possible.
We currently check for non-runners every 15 minutes, and when a runner is removed, this triggers an update of all the ranks. So at most the info should be 15 mins behind if you run a strategy in this way.
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@Adam
Could i ask a couple of questions?Pace Rank.
What is this and how is it derived? I had thought it would have something to do with pace rating but having looked at the qualifiers for the day (listing rank and rating) i am not so sure.Upcoming qualifiers on the strategy tab:
Do the criteria for these update with the same frequency the ones on the daily qualifiers tab do?Reason i ask is because non runners are making strats that uses these rankings near pointless. If the softwear can in some way give accurate qualifiers about 15-30 mins before the race thats obviously the ideal otherwise i need to know how they are derived so i can 'recalculate' them myself just before my betting window on each race.
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@Rick-Watson I agree with everything @Jonathan-Jones has said.
One thing you could do is change the Bet Type in the betting rules to BSP. The favourite rules will use the BSP prices whatever happens (currently), so you'll at least be able to use a consistent time frame to test it.
You can also change the group breakdown to "specific race" which may be more useful for a dutching scenario, because on the group breakdown tab you'll see your profit per race and on the individual trades you can see the breakdown of every trade.
When you've done that, if there are specific races or horses that you don't think should have been traded under those rules, or you don't think something is being calculated correctly, I can look into that. I can't really go through thousands of results without something to go on though unfortunately.
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@Tony-Hastie thanks will upload that one
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If your strategy is good the strike rate should remain consistent no matter what subset of dates you pick. Regarding the courses i would also initially assume the issue with the profitability on those courses would be the strike rate (so omitting them should give an overal higher strike rate on whats left) but that might not be the case. It could be down to the odds taken not giving value or given the huge number of bets it could be the case but its simply not showing because the difference is statistically quite small.
Your bigger issue is the entire strat depends on selecting the four horses that will be BSP rank 1 to 4 at 10 mins from the official start. Thats basically not possible. It might be with these favourite things that your losses from wrong bets and your wins from wrong bets even out over time resulting in not much difference to the bottom line. It might mean your strategy turns to junk. No way of knowing - yet. I would hold fire until Adam releases the update that will answer those questions.
Its a damn interesting one to watch though. Particularly when Adam drops that new version.
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@Adam im finding it hard to believe that if i had put £1 to win on the 1st 4 favs of each race listed in the courses that i would be well over a grand up in 6 months and am therefor thinking iv done something wrong with the build lol or maybe i have not and its just a simple effective method . your thoughts appreciated
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@Rick-Watson What is it that you think is wrong? You don't think it should have the same strike rate?
I'm not 100% clear on what you're asking.
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@Martin @Adam When / if you get a chance take a look at this please . 1 st il tell you what im trying to achieve im trying to utilise the dutching option on bet angel which i can do no problem but wanted to get my selections from btc .
iv set a strat up selecting fav 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th favs no dutching option i know of . so put £1 stakes to win 10min from official start and its 20% strike rate but with high profit i then cut out all losing courses and set start date for jan1st 2023 and its still 20% strike rate but 9% roi and £1304 profit . so now i would like to know what iv done wrong so if you or anyone can please have a look to see what iv done wrong thanks
rules_export (9).json -
@Martin question about the lay the fav strategy above. I’ve downloaded the file and looked through the strategy. It looks to me as if it’s a lay between the odds of 9-16 with no favourite selected. Or am I missing something?
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@John-Folan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Some on here will be offering to have your babies when that happens
I've only got one so far. He's 6 so not much of a baby any more, but anyone who wants him is welcome to him
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@John-Folan go on then, I'll take one for the team
