*****New Football Thread*****
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@Martin It seems to work for me, when I start a new strategy, I paper trade the first 80 selections, then calculate the Strike Rate and min/max odds required, then go live with small stakes, revising the odds every 50 selections if necessary, until I have hit the 385 mark and then if the strategy is still working I go fully live with a bank and % of bank staking dependent on the ROI and Drawdown..
As I say, I'm no statistician and it may not be technically correct but it hasn't done me any harm (yet!)
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I'm already guaranteed another red month after the events of Sunday but hopefully this will stop the rot and begin a decent if quiet June. Lay Under 1.5:
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@Greg-Mitchell interesting that! I like a number of 2000 for certainty on total strategy effectiveness (or as close to as can get) but 385 makes sense for odds filter!
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Basically, to be 95% confident that your margin of error is 5% or less, you need a sample of 385.
If you want greater confidence and a lower margin of error, you need larger samples.
The above is largely used for survey data.
A better way to test betting/trading results is to test the p value (probability that your results are due to chance alone).
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Joseph-Henderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
How many selections would you suggest collating before applying a min odds filter? Thanks
Statistically, if you have a strategy whose number of selections will be unlimited, then 385 is the most you should have to track to be 95% confident that they are representative of an unlimited number of selections.
Obviously this is quite a lot and could take some time (strategy dependent). When starting a new strategy, I tend to use 80 as the first stop, as this represents an 95% confidence for a sample number of 100 selections. Then I review every further 50 selections until I have a total of 385 and then stop changing things.
Whether this is right or wrong, I dunno, I'm sure some statistics whizz will disagree, but it works for me.
Why 385? what's the significance of this number? Curious
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@Joseph-Henderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
How many selections would you suggest collating before applying a min odds filter? Thanks
Statistically, if you have a strategy whose number of selections will be unlimited, then 385 is the most you should have to track to be 95% confident that they are representative of an unlimited number of selections.
Obviously this is quite a lot and could take some time (strategy dependent). When starting a new strategy, I tend to use 80 as the first stop, as this represents an 95% confidence for a sample number of 100 selections. Then I review every further 50 selections until I have a total of 385 and then stop changing things.
Whether this is right or wrong, I dunno, I'm sure some statistics whizz will disagree, but it works for me.
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How many selections would you suggest collating before applying a min odds filter? Thanks
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay Under 1.5:
I should stick to laying the overs at the moment haha! Still a green month provided Keflavik don't screw it up.
They've screwed it up. What a crappy day to follow yesterday!
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay Under 1.5:
I should stick to laying the overs at the moment haha! Still a green month provided Keflavik don't screw it up.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Martin.... Wonder what price you would have got if you had backed Chelsea and West Ham to finish 5th and 6th in the London Part of the premiership???
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Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer well done mate great stuff!
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Getting these out early. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:
Another successful over lay @ odds of 1.41
3/3 and the last one I laid @ 1.18
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Getting these out early. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:
Another successful over lay @ odds of 1.41
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Poor old Dortmund!
Why have a guy take a penalty for you in such a big moment who has never done so before? Will never understand the mentality of some footballing decisions!
Didn't realise he had. 11 straight years Bayern have won it now apparently!
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Poor old Dortmund!
Why have a guy take a penalty for you in such a big moment who has never done so before? Will never understand the mentality of some footballing decisions!
