*****New Football Thread*****
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@Joe-Beeston Lovely, thanks for the heads up.
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Terry-Heller yeah makes sense I may go 0.5pts on 1.5 goals just because the odds will be high
I am tracking the prices for that before i decide at the moment they have quite a wide range from as low as 1.72 to a high of 3.55. The average being 2.6
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@Alex-Rule no selections today pal on any of the football strats on the daily email.
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay Under 1.5:
Ffs 1/2 again....very annoying month. Can't get going.
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Terry-Heller what are you thinking re staking?
I originally staked 1pt on the Over 0.5 at the time I checked the stats filter.
Recently I have been staking to win 1pt so effectively increasing my stakeUsing the same selections and considering it to be a seperate strategy
I am now using fairbot to place bets at 15 minutes when the score is still 0-0
I place a bet to win 1pt on the Over 0.5 FHG
I place a bet with 1pt stake on the Over 1.5 FHG (only limited number of data points but the average price atm is 3.9)
So 1 goal after 15 mins I more or less break even
2 goals after 15 mins should be around 4pts profit
No goals and just over 2pts lossDoes that make sense to you?
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Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Samo said in *****New Football Thread*****:
haha we love the FH market
don't know why but there is some thing with it.
having a 70% SR is super nice and the ods to match up so there is value.
the only thing with it is that there is a room for human error. like when you take the newcastle vs leicester game. when looking at the inplay stats it looked like a realy live game with a lot of attacks and shots etc. But Martin watched the match and his oppinion was that both teams where oke with one point.
or do you guys use a set and forget and automation strategy and don't watch or monitor the game in play?maybe it is also possible to trade the market so lay when tere is value (the to short ods on the market) and cash out at 15/30 min for a profit.
For me i'm just still in the brainstorm period about this marketi think together we can crack it and make it a profitable market
sharing data and idea's is one of the reasons being here
This probably comes into the realms of don't trade the last x games of the season. Newcastle only needed 1 point to secure CL and for Leicester, if you'd have offered them a point before kick off they'd have snapped you hand off re relegation points.
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Anyone been watching the Under 20 World Cup in Argentina. Live streaming on the FIFA website.
It has been very good.
I love how VAR is being used. The ref is called over to look at the monitor then he switches on his microphone and announces the decision through the PA system.
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@Samo I have been recording shots on target and shots off target at both 15minutes and 30minutes to see if there is a trend that I could follow. At the minute nothing is standing out. I would have a game that is really lively and lots of shots and there is no FH Goal. Then on the other hand, a game that has nothing, a goal goes in with the first shot. So at the minute, I am trading them regardless as long as they are on the filter.
I use something that Martin has mentioned in one of his videos when looking at a SHG. I record shots on target but then I also record shots off target as 0.25 (So 4 shots off target equals 1 shot on target). This is just my way of trying to give a definitive value to the in play stats as a shot on target is more valuable than a 30 yarder that hits the car park.
Looking at your laying theory. We are all looking at around 70% SR, which is 1.42 BF Odds. So I assume that if you had anything shorter than that you could look to lay it I suppose. It would be slight value, but that would just need testing. I really don't like the idea of hoping for no goals. I tried time decay on under 2.5 and the idea of waiting 15 minutes, hoping there isn't a goal just wasn't for me
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@Joe-Beeston that's solid then well done!
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Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Samo i always check the inplay but i dont really use it. I just like to have a look. I genuinely dont think my results would get any better using it
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Try this
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
Just reverse the percentage for lay odds.
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haha we love the FH market
don't know why but there is some thing with it.
having a 70% SR is super nice and the ods to match up so there is value.
the only thing with it is that there is a room for human error. like when you take the newcastle vs leicester game. when looking at the inplay stats it looked like a realy live game with a lot of attacks and shots etc. But Martin watched the match and his oppinion was that both teams where oke with one point.
or do you guys use a set and forget and automation strategy and don't watch or monitor the game in play?maybe it is also possible to trade the market so lay when tere is value (the to short ods on the market) and cash out at 15/30 min for a profit.
For me i'm just still in the brainstorm period about this marketi think together we can crack it and make it a profitable market
sharing data and idea's is one of the reasons being here
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@Martin I started testing in Jan 23, however I didn't start to record prices until April as the original strategy was built for LTD and didn't work, but the data suggested FH Goals. At that point I started recording the prices. If I include the other 420 results with the 121 that I have with the prices. I have SR of 65% at 15 and 42% at 30 which needs 1.55 and 2.37, so you could argue that it is still value. I also haven't done any league/odds filtering on the original so that could increase the 65%/42% if there are a couple of leagues where it really doesn't work.
