FHG Set & Forget
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@jon-kinnear said in FHG Set & Forget:
Hey Chris, ive been following this one since you posted it, and really impressed with this.
as someone who really likes to go through all the stats, and devising strategies to fit, i have come up with an in-play variation of youre FHG set and forget.Part 1 is to lay under 0.5 FHG for 1.05 points b4 KO as if betting it as set and forget.
part 2 is to back over 1.5 FHG for 1 point on 15 mins (before 16th min) if still 0-0.if a goal is scored 1-15 mins you win the lay bet.
if 1 goal is scored after 15 mins you break even.
if the half ends 0-0 you lose just under 3 pts
if 2 goals after 15 mins you win 5+ points(unsure of the actual odds but 5.00 would be a low average)from youre results so far....
37 early goal wins
24 games had 2 goals after 15 mins
36 were 0-0 at ht
the rest were scratch trades.
by my calculations betting the selections in this way made over 50 points profit.
i think the profit may be bigger as the over 1.5 FHG on 15 mins will likely be closer to 6.00 on average, but i dont have that data so cant say without actually testing in-play.Very interesting angle Jon, please let us know the results of the testing it all sounds very promising. I’m still dabbling with my FHG filter summer seems to be a good time to test with it being a little quieter.
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@jon-kinnear Thanks for clarifying. Ah I get the 1.05 points used on part 1, nice. Keeps everything nice and tidy.
Great you’re willing to give it a test, really hope it works out for you. It definitely all looks worth doing.
As I’ve talked about in the original post, the original filter has always had a decent strike rate on FHG since i created it, through winter and summer.
The tweaked filter for this FHG strategy has been holding a strike rate above 70% which was exactly what I’d hoped for and the selections are much more manageable.
Going on what you’ve shown so far, taking your approach i think you’d be profitable on a lower strike rate because of the scratches and the part 2 over 1.5 aspect.
Look forward to hearing ow you do!
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
Part 1 is to lay under 0.5 FHG for 1.05 (1 point?) points b4 KO as if betting it as set and forget.
part 2 is to back over 1.5 FHG for 1 point on 15 mins (before 16th min) if still 0-0.
if a goal is scored 1-15 mins you win the lay bet (And we don’t trade Part 2?) correct
if 1 goal is scored after 15 mins you break even (Because Part 1 and Part 2 more or less cancel each other out?) yeah the reason for 1.05 points is to cover the comission if only 1 goal, otherwise you would win £9.80/£9.50(depending on comission rate) but lose £10 on part 2 the other option is to bet £10 on part 1 and £9.50/£9.80 on part 2 to ensure a scratch if 1 goal only.
if the half ends 0-0 you lose just under 3 pts (Because Part 1 and Part 2 lost?) yes
if 2 goals after 15 mins you win 5+ points(unsure of the actual odds but 5.00 would be a low average) (Because we win Part 1 and Part 2?) yesYeah i think i will begin testing for this, it will be interesting to see how it does for the summer leagues.
And will give me a bit more to do, as my selections have died down a bit in recent weeks.
will keep you posted on how it does. -
@jon-kinnear Hi Jon, Thanks saying so and thanks for the support.
Glad you’ve enjoyed it so far and also in going through the stats. I tend to like doing the same; collect stats and see if there are strategies to fit. I hope the strike rate remains consistent for this as the odds on the selections have been consistent value so far.
You’ve done a bit of work on this i see. That’s a really interesting approach to trading it, something i would never have though of, and amazing return.
Are you thinking of testing it?
Just to clarify…
Part 1 is to lay under 0.5 FHG for 1.05 (1 point?) points b4 KO as if betting it as set and forget.
part 2 is to back over 1.5 FHG for 1 point on 15 mins (before 16th min) if still 0-0.if a goal is scored 1-15 mins you win the lay bet (And we don’t trade Part 2?)
if 1 goal is scored after 15 mins you break even (Because Part 1 and Part 2 more or less cancel each other out?)
if the half ends 0-0 you lose just under 3 pts (Because Part 1 and Part 2 lost?)
if 2 goals after 15 mins you win 5+ points(unsure of the actual odds but 5.00 would be a low average) (Because we win Part 1 and Part 2?)
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Hey Chris, ive been following this one since you posted it, and really impressed with this.
as someone who really likes to go through all the stats, and devising strategies to fit, i have come up with an in-play variation of youre FHG set and forget.Part 1 is to lay under 0.5 FHG for 1.05 points b4 KO as if betting it as set and forget.
part 2 is to back over 1.5 FHG for 1 point on 15 mins (before 16th min) if still 0-0.if a goal is scored 1-15 mins you win the lay bet.
if 1 goal is scored after 15 mins you break even.
if the half ends 0-0 you lose just under 3 pts
if 2 goals after 15 mins you win 5+ points(unsure of the actual odds but 5.00 would be a low average)from youre results so far....
37 early goal wins
24 games had 2 goals after 15 mins
36 were 0-0 at ht
the rest were scratch trades.
by my calculations betting the selections in this way made over 50 points profit.
i think the profit may be bigger as the over 1.5 FHG on 15 mins will likely be closer to 6.00 on average, but i dont have that data so cant say without actually testing in-play. -
@paul-p Here in the UK you would log in to BF and go to My Account. Then open up Promotions and rewards. There it shows what plan you are on and there is an option to change the plan. If that is available in Australia then the one you want is Basic. If it is the same as here when you select a different plan then they will also tell you the date that it will become effective from.
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@terry-heller How do you change your commission rate? I'm in Australia - so not sure its possible. I thought the 5% was a standard rate and the more you bet the more eligible you are for commission discount..... ?
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@chris-king to be honest it seems a lot of people are struggyling in april, its been an odd month
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
sorry i have another question in regards to laying the O1.5 SHG markets, so is this the strike rate for 2 or more goals in the SHG that sheet 1a, So only roughly a 1/3 of games had 2 or more SH goals?
Yes thats the strike rate. It was about 25% when i began the blog though, so not as strong now.
I am also slowly back testing/filling the spreadsheet with odds from flash score so the P/L isn’t sorted yet.
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sorry i have another question in regards to laying the O1.5 SHG markets, so is this the strike rate for 2 or more goals in the SHG that sheet 1a, So only roughly a 1/3 of games had 2 or more SH goals?
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king i take it its no matter what the score line is at HT?
and its this filter:
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1) Also Sheet 1a for SHG Under 1.5 S&F)
0_1679409550935_filter-settings.txt 2.json
Yes thats the one. Hope you have a better day today.
me too bud, been a while since ive had such a bad weekend so i cant moan
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king i take it its no matter what the score line is at HT?
and its this filter:
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1) Also Sheet 1a for SHG Under 1.5 S&F)
0_1679409550935_filter-settings.txt 2.json
Yes thats the one. Hope you have a better day today.
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@chris-king i take it its no matter what the score line is at HT?
and its this filter:
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1) Also Sheet 1a for SHG Under 1.5 S&F)
0_1679409550935_filter-settings.txt 2.json
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi, sorry I haven’t replied sooner, I’ll try to answer your last couple of questions.
Firstly though i do think you’re absolutely right in keeping things simple so will just be focussing on the following tests;
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1)…Laying under 0.5 FHG
SHG S&F (Sheet 1a)…Laying over 1.5 SHG
Both of these use the first filter in the original post (ending 2.json)
And also
FHG S&F New (Sheet 2)
And that’s if for now. I had a few experiments on laying under 1.5 FHG’s and laying over SHG’s with £1 stakes for 50% profit and found that if there was a goal the trade wouldn’t be close to cash out for 50% until the half was over really, a it then becomes the 0.5 market effectively, so not as simple as i first hoped. It’s also a bit more labour intensive to test.
I still think both are worth tracking as S&F so will carry on with that.
So if you prefer to just do FHG then the sheet to follow would be Sheet 1. That is my primary FHG test
the FHG in particular the lay P&L is impressive, almost at a 100 selection marker as well :thumbs_up_light_skin_tone:
Thanks, it’s not doing too badly. I’d like the long term SR to edge up a little. FHG for me has often had strings of losers that damage the PL increasing consistently, but set and forget so far is definitely no worse, and easier. Will just rack up the data for now and see how the filter performs.
Had a good Easter so far though and bounced back
that good budddy, ive had a woeful easter, wish id shut my laptop and just chilled, not many selections today so its not looking good, hopefully next week is better
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This post is deleted!
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi, sorry I haven’t replied sooner, I’ll try to answer your last couple of questions.
Firstly though i do think you’re absolutely right in keeping things simple so will just be focussing on the following tests;
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1)…Laying under 0.5 FHG
SHG S&F (Sheet 1a)…Laying over 1.5 SHG
Both of these use the first filter in the original post (ending 2.json)
And also
FHG S&F New (Sheet 2)
And that’s if for now. I had a few experiments on laying under 1.5 FHG’s and laying over SHG’s with £1 stakes for 50% profit and found that if there was a goal the trade wouldn’t be close to cash out for 50% until the half was over really, a it then becomes the 0.5 market effectively, so not as simple as i first hoped. It’s also a bit more labour intensive to test.
I still think both are worth tracking as S&F so will carry on with that.
So if you prefer to just do FHG then the sheet to follow would be Sheet 1. That is my primary FHG test
the FHG in particular the lay P&L is impressive, almost at a 100 selection marker as well :thumbs_up_light_skin_tone:
Thanks, it’s not doing too badly. I’d like the long term SR to edge up a little. FHG for me has often had strings of losers that damage the PL increasing consistently, but set and forget so far is definitely no worse, and easier. Will just rack up the data for now and see how the filter performs.
Had a good Easter so far though and bounced back
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
SHG S&F (Sheet 1a)…Laying over 1.5 SHG
so are you laying over 1.5 SHG thinking there will be 2 SHG? or are you laying the next goal in the second half, so for example the game is 1-1 at HT you are laying the O2.5G market? so 1 goal in the SH will results in a winning trade?
Or are you entering at HT or later in the SH say 60M? Ive found the SH goals markets take until about the 60M for a 1.4 entry?
Laying the SH over 1.5 goal market at half time whatever the score line, whatever the odds and letting it run. We want no more than 1 goal to win, 2 or more goals is losing trade.
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi, sorry I haven’t replied sooner, I’ll try to answer your last couple of questions.
Firstly though i do think you’re absolutely right in keeping things simple so will just be focussing on the following tests;
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1)…Laying under 0.5 FHG
SHG S&F (Sheet 1a)…Laying over 1.5 SHG
Both of these use the first filter in the original post (ending 2.json)
And also
FHG S&F New (Sheet 2)
And that’s if for now. I had a few experiments on laying under 1.5 FHG’s and laying over SHG’s with £1 stakes for 50% profit and found that if there was a goal the trade wouldn’t be close to cash out for 50% until the half was over really, a it then becomes the 0.5 market effectively, so not as simple as i first hoped. It’s also a bit more labour intensive to test.
I still think both are worth tracking as S&F so will carry on with that.
So if you prefer to just do FHG then the sheet to follow would be Sheet 1. That is my primary FHG test
the FHG in particular the lay P&L is impressive, almost at a 100 selection marker as well :thumbs_up_light_skin_tone:
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
SHG S&F (Sheet 1a)…Laying over 1.5 SHG
so are you laying over 1.5 SHG thinking there will be 2 SHG? or are you laying the next goal in the second half, so for example the game is 1-1 at HT you are laying the O2.5G market? so 1 goal in the SH will results in a winning trade?
Or are you entering at HT or later in the SH say 60M? Ive found the SH goals markets take until about the 60M for a 1.4 entry?
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@nick-allan Hi, sorry I haven’t replied sooner, I’ll try to answer your last couple of questions.
Firstly though i do think you’re absolutely right in keeping things simple so will just be focussing on the following tests;
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1)…Laying under 0.5 FHG
SHG S&F (Sheet 1a)…Laying over 1.5 SHG
Both of these use the first filter in the original post (ending 2.json)
And also
FHG S&F New (Sheet 2)
And that’s if for now. I had a few experiments on laying under 1.5 FHG’s and laying over SHG’s with £1 stakes for 50% profit and found that if there was a goal the trade wouldn’t be close to cash out for 50% until the half was over really, a it then becomes the 0.5 market effectively, so not as simple as i first hoped. It’s also a bit more labour intensive to test.
I still think both are worth tracking as S&F so will carry on with that.
So if you prefer to just do FHG then the sheet to follow would be Sheet 1. That is my primary FHG test