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The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Horse Racing
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #961

    @jonathan-jones they do but it’s not a bot. It’s more based on manual trading with ladders, dutching, etc.

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Dan MacKinnon on last edited by
    #962

    @dan-mackinnon

    Not really getting any differences in trades any more on fairbot. Getting a few odds differences and thats always because the software triggers in LTP and always places and gets the bet on LTP. I have found if i use LTP for bet placement i miss trades (perhaps this is part of your problem) but using the trigger on LTP and bet placement on best lay price i often get several ticks off the price.

    Very much coming round the the idea its a swings and roundabouts thing. Seem to benefit as much as lose out from any differences i do get.

    You do know that Bintenko also do a Daqbot to go with Fairbot right? Might try it myself one day.

    D AdamA 2 Replies Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    replied to Adam on last edited by
    #963

    @adam yeah. Also, the likelihood of that happening I assume is quite rare so it's not really a factor.

    Overall it shows that both Fairbot and BFBM are pretty much bang on with the software. BFBM is probably slightly more accurate, whereas Fairbot picks up more trades around the 3 and 15 odds crossover.

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

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  • AdamA Offline
    AdamA Offline
    Adam btc team
    replied to Dan MacKinnon on last edited by
    #964

    @dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    Adam has told me that some of the data from Betfair takes a couple of weeks to show up on the software so there is a chance it has been updated, this is taken usually the day after).

    The only reason there should be that much of a delay is if the Betfair API went down or something and we need to plug the data gap with their historical data, which is about a week behind.

    Otherwise, the results for the previous day should be in about 36 hours max after the race.

    BTC's Website and Software Man

    D 1 Reply Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    wrote on last edited by
    #965

    I've gone back to the start of February when I was tracking my results vs the software.

    Software: 167 trades
    Fairbot: 194 trades

    Software: 8 losers, 95% SR
    Fairbot: 13 losers, 93% SR

    8 trades were on the software and not Fairbot, 19 were on Fairbot but not the software (Adam has told me that some of the data from Betfair takes a couple of weeks to show up on the software so there is a chance it has been updated, this is taken usually the day after).

    I haven't worked out the P&L but it's roughly the same. It's starting to make sense why this month is so rubbish if I was going at 95% SR last month from 124 trades!

    I know it's said here so often but I love the software because it gives us an opportunity to mess about with stuff like this without having to wait years to build up data.

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

    AdamA 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Greg MitchellG Offline
    Greg MitchellG Offline
    Greg Mitchell
    replied to Dan MacKinnon on last edited by Greg Mitchell
    #966

    @dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    This is my early doors analysis of the software results vs Betfair (Fairbot) vs Betdaq (BFBM) using LTBF.

    Trades
    Total 57 horses as per the upcoming qualifiers from 5th to 12th April

    • Software: 32 trades
    • Betfair: 47 trades
    • Betdaq: 43 trades

    Losers

    • Software: 4
    • Betfair: 9
    • Betdaq: 6

    Strike Rate

    • Software: 88%
    • Betfair: 81%
    • Betdaq: 86%

    I know this short example makes it seem that the software is being misleading by avoiding a few losers, but last month it was the opposite and left out a few winners so overall it works out probably +/1 5% overall.

    Overall, Fairbot seems to pick up more of the trades, especially around the 3 and 15 marks. Annoyingly it got matched at 2.98 and went on to lose. I would put some of the differences down to whether or not it got matched at 15.

    I will keep records and when I get a decent size I'm happy to share more. I think that BFBM is probably more in line with the software results. It's just a shame I started recording this data during a losing month!

    Interesting, I was just checking mine:

    From the 4th March:

    Software - 157 Selections
    BFBM on Betfair(uploaded from Software URL) - 152 Selections

    Software - 145 "Winners", 12 "Losers"
    BFBM - 140 "Winners", 12 "Losers"

    Both at roughly 92% Strike Rate

    P & L to a £1 Stake

    Software + £43
    BFBM +£74

    Interestingly there were 20 on the Software that weren't on BFBM and 15 on BFBM that weren't on the Software

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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    wrote on last edited by
    #967

    This is my early doors analysis of the software results vs Betfair (Fairbot) vs Betdaq (BFBM) using LTBF.

    Trades
    Total 57 horses as per the upcoming qualifiers from 5th to 12th April

    • Software: 32 trades
    • Betfair: 47 trades
    • Betdaq: 43 trades

    Losers

    • Software: 4
    • Betfair: 9
    • Betdaq: 6

    Strike Rate

    • Software: 88%
    • Betfair: 81%
    • Betdaq: 86%

    I know this short example makes it seem that the software is being misleading by avoiding a few losers, but last month it was the opposite and left out a few winners so overall it works out probably +/1 5% overall.

    Overall, Fairbot seems to pick up more of the trades, especially around the 3 and 15 marks. Annoyingly it got matched at 2.98 and went on to lose. I would put some of the differences down to whether or not it got matched at 15.

    I will keep records and when I get a decent size I'm happy to share more. I think that BFBM is probably more in line with the software results. It's just a shame I started recording this data during a losing month!

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

    Greg MitchellG ? 2 Replies Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    wrote on last edited by
    #968

    I believe tomorrow will be 1 year since the horse racing software was released.

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

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  • AdamA Offline
    AdamA Offline
    Adam btc team
    replied to Nathan Cooke on last edited by
    #969

    @nathan-cooke said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    Hey team, bit of a random one. I was digging online and found an article that suggested where there was a short priced fav, backing the 5th fav has a positive ROI.

    We'll add this to the software. Probably makes sense to include nth fave with a max of 6 (6 being the max number of official "places" in any race).

    BTC's Website and Software Man

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Nathan Cooke on last edited by
    #970

    @nathan-cooke

    Unfortunately the fav criteria only goes to 4th fav, otherwise it would of been an easy one to test.

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #971

    @emily-knowles

    Not seen the thread but you can easilty test this out yourself with the software if i get what you are asking. You can test laying to stake, liability by flat stake or by % bank.

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to David Milligan on last edited by
    #972

    @david-milligan I can't find the thread that's what got me thinking if I really did read it or not!

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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    David Milligan
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #973

    @emily-knowles I have read this somewhere too, can you post a link? Would love to see some data

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #974

    Unless I'm going mad, I'm sure I saw a thread to say that laying fixed stakes is more profitable than fixed liability as long as the bank management is good.

    I'm wondering whether to change my staking from 2.5% bank as a liability to 1% flat stake

    What's everyone's thoughts on this?

    D ? 2 Replies Last reply
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  • N Offline
    N Offline
    Nathan Cooke Banned
    wrote on last edited by
    #975

    Hey team, bit of a random one. I was digging online and found an article that suggested where there was a short priced fav, backing the 5th fav has a positive ROI. It was something like in races with 10 to 12 runners where the fav is between $1-$2, back the 5th fav. I'm a bit of a noob and still learning the software, but is this a strategy I can back test?

    ? AdamA 2 Replies Last reply
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  • Richard CoxonR Offline
    Richard CoxonR Offline
    Richard Coxon
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #976

    @martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    Anyone got any sweepstakes going?

    At work, Back on The Lash and Galvin but nothing real ..

    Always smile first thing in the morning to get it over with :)

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to John Folan on last edited by
    #977

    @john-folan ...Dunboyne, Galvin and Back on the Lash for me!!
    Just drawn last horse in the sweep ...Any Second Now last 3 out were
    Rambler, Delta and MIne, obviously nobody in pub keeping track of what was left!!

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    wrote on last edited by
    #978

    Just read that historically horses starting the national at single figure prices don’t have a great SR in the national! Worth a lay on any if they start short?

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    replied to John Folan on last edited by
    #979

    @john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    Noble Yeats
    Le Milos
    Ain’t that a Same
    Any Second Now

    Backing each way in the National Later.

    I was going E/W on Le Milos and Mister Coffey.

    The trouble with laying horses is the names I recognise are usually because I want them to lose. Let’s see how I get on without the software to help.

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    wrote on last edited by
    #980

    Anyone got any sweepstakes going?

    Richard CoxonR 1 Reply Last reply
    0

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