Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@andy-donnelly said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Yep agree, as it happens looking at the LBF for the last 6 and a half months, there isn’t a great deal of difference in the overall P/L, although fixed stake is the winner
Fixed Stake - £1092 (to £10 stakes) Av win £10, av loss £ 74
My version of Maria staking - £1005 (to av £65 liability), Av win £9, av loss £65
Fixed liability - £915 (to £70 liability), av win £9.65, av loss £70I think I’ll stick with the Maria style for a little bit longer but keep monitoring over the next few months
Does this roughly transfer over to other strategies, i.e is fixed stakes a better option in most situations?
If I know what the profit/loss was with fixed liability how can I use this information to work out if I'd of been better running fixed stakes? (Not too worried about using Maria, I'm going for fixed stake or liability just not sure which one)
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Hi All,
Coming into the flat season what presets from the above or presets on the software would you guys say would do well on the flat ? I have been running a tweaked version of the LTBF strat the past few months and most of the losses have been on jumps.
Cheers
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@ian-parry said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@john-folan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@andy-donnelly said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Do you guys have a view on staking methods for lay strategies at high odds? Are you an advocate for one particular option?
Tbh if you stake properly there is no reason you can’t flat stake higher odds. Depends if you can deal with the occasional hit or not. If you can’t then liability is the way to go. LTBF I am doing on flat stakes and I’ve got a liability bot. I’ll make a decision on which one I’m sticking with a few months down the line as stakes grow.
Where is this LTBF strategy? I can't see it listed above. Seems to be generating a lot of interest. I'd like to check it out.
Lay The Beaten Favourite. Pretty sure it’s in the presets
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@john-folan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@andy-donnelly said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Do you guys have a view on staking methods for lay strategies at high odds? Are you an advocate for one particular option?
Tbh if you stake properly there is no reason you can’t flat stake higher odds. Depends if you can deal with the occasional hit or not. If you can’t then liability is the way to go. LTBF I am doing on flat stakes and I’ve got a liability bot. I’ll make a decision on which one I’m sticking with a few months down the line as stakes grow.
Where is this LTBF strategy? I can't see it listed above. Seems to be generating a lot of interest. I'd like to check it out.
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@andy-donnelly said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Do you guys have a view on staking methods for lay strategies at high odds? Are you an advocate for one particular option?
Tbh if you stake properly there is no reason you can’t flat stake higher odds. Depends if you can deal with the occasional hit or not. If you can’t then liability is the way to go. LTBF I am doing on flat stakes and I’ve got a liability bot. I’ll make a decision on which one I’m sticking with a few months down the line as stakes grow.
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Yeh is interesting. One other point to note on the fixed staking is that it’s had a max loss in 5 of the last 7 months. It’s more than absorbed this but for anyone going down way just need to be prepared for a max hit once a month
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@andy-donnelly interesting bit of work there, all close like you say!
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Yep agree, as it happens looking at the LBF for the last 6 and a half months, there isn’t a great deal of difference in the overall P/L, although fixed stake is the winner
Fixed Stake - £1092 (to £10 stakes) Av win £10, av loss £ 74
My version of Maria staking - £1005 (to av £65 liability), Av win £9, av loss £65
Fixed liability - £915 (to £70 liability), av win £9.65, av loss £70I think I’ll stick with the Maria style for a little bit longer but keep monitoring over the next few months
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@andy-donnelly said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Do you guys have a view on staking methods for lay strategies at high odds? Are you an advocate for one particular option?
I used to use Maria for a strategy of laying the worst tipsters, just used flat stakes since
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@andy-donnelly said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
find Maria staking better for me than fixed liability just because the trades on the shorter odds ranges where you’d expect to lose more get the same penalty when they lose as those at the higher end, which doesn’t feel right.
I wonder whether the flaw I have right now is that I am using one staking method for the three HR strategies I have, when actually they may well benefit from seperate methods. On the LBF with its 92% SR you probably can be a bit more risk averse and go for fix stake even at higher odds as losses are so infrequent. May take another look at the data.Yep. Fixed stake for me. I prefer the recovery rate for the fixed. liabilty stake is like maria on steroids really. With staking to liabilty you bet tiny stakes on the ones most likely to win you money and the full whack on ones that are probability wise more likely to lose you money. They key i think is pick what you are comfortable with. At the moment for me its this. When the bets are £100 stake i might feel very different.
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Do you guys have a view on staking methods for lay strategies at high odds? Are you an advocate for one particular option?
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@jonathan-jones Are you planning to do fixed stake then rather than fixed liability?
I find Maria staking better for me than fixed liability just because the trades on the shorter odds ranges where you’d expect to lose more get the same penalty when they lose as those at the higher end, which doesn’t feel right.
I wonder whether the flaw I have right now is that I am using one staking method for the three HR strategies I have, when actually they may well benefit from seperate methods. On the LBF with its 92% SR you probably can be a bit more risk averse and go for fix stake even at higher odds as losses are so infrequent. May take another look at the data.
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So thats pretty much my point. Generally you want to leverage the higher probability/higher value bets and reduce stakes on the ones less likely to give good results. Maria staking works the other way round by changing that focus to a view that focuses 100% on 'liability' and not actually 'risk'. Thats fine and i am not going to argue against that view because it suits some people. In fact when my stake size increases i may turn that way out of fear of the big numbers. But, for a small bank where growth is the focus and the losses just annoy me simply because they are 'losses' rather than any real financial aspect i think for now i wont be using it.
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@emily-knowles said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
understanding variance (learn to embrace not fight it,)
Probably the thing I think people struggle with most.
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@joshua-varley said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Thanks for sharing your stats this way, definitely some food for thought!
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@emily-knowles Yep, strike rate. It is high with the Lay the Beaten Fav start - averages around 92% overall, but obviously higher, the higher the odds.
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@joshua-varley Forgive the simple question but what is SR? Success Rate? If so that sounds exceptionally high!
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@daniel-mills I started playing back in 2002. Just as the internet was starting up, I used to use dial up! In my opinion it's not very profitable to play anymore, great for a hobby but most people are fairly decent and don't make many mistakes so grinding out profit is very hard work. The only way it will improve is if the US market comes back online.
I stopped playing a few years ago, but I made my living from it for about a decade. I was sponsored for a while and had some great times. But a Mum being away for weeks on end playing poker didn't go down too well, hubby and kids got a lot of stick and the in-laws weren't too impressed,so I moved to full time online and then I just got bored, I had a really good HUD and found I wasn't making any real decisions anymore or playing "people" it kind of just fizzled out over time. GTO is a prime example of why it's become boring, I never played "optimal" poker I used to mess about with the psychology of the table, it was superb fun, and I made a ton from getting people to tilt
This is the perfect time to recommend you watch the Mindset playlist on the BTC YouTube channel. I've literally just watched @Martin on the 2nd one of the playlist talk about having a passion for trading. I lost it with poker and after a few years of meh, I've found it again via Betfair trading.
I genuinely love trading, I scalp and swing pre-off and do my thing then get out with 1 min to go then (Thanks to the help of an experienced forum member!) I spend a few minutes watching the race to see if my automated back or lay bets come good, knowing I've already profited from the trading regardless. Any strategy wins are a bonus!
I've thrown myself in the deep end and trade or "work" more than full time hours, especially while I learn the ropes. This includes time to educate myself. I'm working my way through every video from Martin and Ryan and also Peter Webb of Bet Angel. I try to spend as much time learning as I do doing in the beginning.
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P.S Please keep in mind, my entry time etc is slightly modified from the preset.
