BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Something I hadn't considered with my 1st/2nd innings market flip strategy is, what happens when the market is bouncing between 1.99 - 2.02 etc at the start of the innings... laying both sides at those odds offers nothing really apart from a tick scalp etc.
Guess I'll mark it down on the spreadsheet as n/a lol.
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@matt-ayles dead rubber theory is real ha
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Did Bangla put the reserves out today? Would have been a gold mine to lay them but i avoided it because the last 2 games were so one-sided.
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@stuart-wallace-0 testing ready to go. Just hope it's worth it after 2 months of work... provides some answers.
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IPL starts tomorrow..
Gujurat v Chennai at Ahmedabad.
New rule whereby teams can be selected after the toss.
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BANG IRE
Throwing in a small 1.05 LAY
I'd take 75% back 1.10 to bank something
go for a walk and see where things are early in the chase -
SA v WIN this afternnon at 17.00.
Over 500 runs scored in last 20/20 between these 2 at Centurion.
Todays game is at the other Joburg ground at Wanderers, but also, obviously, in the High Veldt which is at Altitude, some 6000 feet above sea level, so would expect another high scoring game as the ball travels further at this sort of altitude. -
What is everyones opinion on trading the DRS ?
Has anybody done any analysis on price movements on DRS decisions? its something i want to try to understand more. ie does the market react fully or does it stop, or halfway house? -
a video from Martin that i seem to have passed by that has an interesting strategy re scalping
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
What we need is cricket back testing software @Adam please!
I've been thinking the same, what you could do with that type of information.
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@matt-ayles I found Fairbot really simple after a couple of weeks, nothing major to learn, and also much cheaper than BetAngel pro which is what is needed to do Automation. Can run it in Simulation mode til youre comfortable.
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@stuart-wallace-0 watched the video you suggested. Certainly very interesting. Not got Fairbot myself and would take some learning looking at all those conditions etc, but might be the way to trade the shorter formats if a profitable strategy can be developed.
What we need is cricket back testing software @Adam please!
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Happy to test any other ideas if anyone can come up with anything.
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I have a testing spreadsheet setup and ready to go for the IPL. I'm looking at the 1.1 strategy in 1st or 2nd innings separately, I'm looking at odds flips (e.g. 1 team starts pre match at 1.6, does the other team ever touch that same number - like the lay both sides strat)... I'm also looking at that idea for run chases... do the odds of whoever is favourite at half way flip round..
Another one i have which is more wild is runs brackets. Looking at the average scores in the first innings of T20s at individual grounds, and trying to get matched on the runs markets on over the low point and under the high point... not sure on this one as might not match but will test it. Idea behind it is, if they match, guaranteed one will win to break even, and double your money if the runs falls inside the average score window.
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@stuart-wallace-0 yes i had a very good IPL last year but in hindsight it was horrible from a trading perspective. I was new to cricket and overstaked hugely... basically i was laying both sides at 1.89 with 10 points trying to make 1 point... yes it worked, think it landed in 68 of the 70 group matches. However huge losing 9 points if it was a blowout is ridiculous and unprofessional. Not a strategy i will be adopting this year.
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@joseph-henderson said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I am very much a beginner with cricket trading but can see the huge potential and am keen to learn! Where do you get most of your statistics from, such as team batting averages, ground averages etc?
Best site for me is ESPN Cricinfo. You can find all kinds of stats in there. I have the app on my phone too, use it daily!
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I am very much a beginner with cricket trading but can see the huge potential and am keen to learn! Where do you get most of your statistics from, such as team batting averages, ground averages etc?
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@matt-ayles
Hi everyone, been offline for a few days with a technical/family issue ! - dont ask !Hi Matt, interesting comments.
Agree, in that Test matches i find easy to make money on - think we have a good 'team' of people on here who provide thoughts and advice that make it a lot easier to profit.
However, as you say, white ball is totally different, and more of a challenge and more of a gamble.
I am concentrating at the moment with my 1.1 and TossLay strategies - trying to play around at the moment with trying to eliminate the 'normal' 1.1 Stop losses (ie when a team has already effectively won the game) by playing around with in-play timings (ie not to place 1.1 in last 20 per cent of game). So, i am trying to make some green as much as possible pre-game ending.IPL - i vaguely remember you saying you had a profitable 2022 ? - so, would be interesting to see what strategies you have found profitable. IPL - I will be trading actively from 1st and 2nd April. Looking initially at scalping and automation strategies i would think.
One thing i have been thinking about is DRS - i wonder what happens for example, when they go up for DRS, when it seems quite obvious from the eye that a wicket has fallen or not.?
Also thinking of scalping after wicket taken, and then getting out before next ball is bowled.I think it would be really interesting to collate some strategies from our collective brains and test them out in first week of IPL. The more we get our heads together the more likely we can come up with some successful strategies. Maybe post thoughts about the next days games every evening? I'm up for doing that.
BTW, have you checked out the Alistair Hamilton vid re 1.1 Lay ? Some really interesting i must admitconcepts in there, just wondering if you agree with the 50% at 1.2, 25% at 1.3 and then letting the rest run?
