FHG Set & Forget
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
Had some thoughts on FHG and also thought about how the auto cash out feature on Betfair can be utilised in set and forget.
If odds of around 2.00 are available on the FH 1.5 Goal market and there is 75% chance of there being just one FHG there should be opportunity to profit on the under 1.5 FH market as it moves more quickly than the FH 0.5 market.
So matches where goals are expected by the market is what would be needed. I’m thinking cash out for a profit of 50% of the stake/risk, nothing particularly greedy. The original filter i adapted for this FHG filter often had some very measly FHG odds but rarely sustained 75%+ strike rate on O0.5FHG.
If there’s 75% of a single FHG which is a decent strike rate, there is less than 75% of there being 2 FHG’s so if 2.00/50% is available on 1.5 FHG there’s a good opportunity to cash out for a profit of 50% of risk on under 1.5 75% of the time. If we lose, we loose the full stake/risk.
So say a loss is £10 at 2.0 and win is £5.00 cashing out. We can set the desired profit to exit on with auto cash out.
100 matches at 75%, 75x£5=£375. 25x£10=£250. Profit £125
You could argue that you’d just set and forget at 2.00 if you know that there is only 75% chance of 1 goal but i feel using the 1.5 market would be more resilient and stable over time. To break even on full set and forget we’d need half the matches to have 2 goals which is a lot and there would be more variance i think, but cashing out you could still profit on matches that do have 2 FHG and possibly achieve a higher strike than 75%
You could also apply this to other markets and strategies if you can get 2.0 knowing you’ll get around 75% strike rate cashing out for half the stake value in profit.
Hopefully that all kind of makes sense and I haven’t got my thinking wrong
hey chris, im confused, are you talking about laying the u1.5 FHG markets when it hits 2.0?
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Had some thoughts on FHG and also thought about how the auto cash out feature on Betfair can be utilised in set and forget.
If odds of around 2.00 are available on the FH 1.5 Goal market and there is 75% chance of there being just one FHG there should be opportunity to profit on the under 1.5 FH market as it moves more quickly than the FH 0.5 market.
So matches where goals are expected by the market is what would be needed. I’m thinking cash out for a profit of 50% of the stake/risk, nothing particularly greedy. The original filter i adapted for this FHG filter often had some very measly FHG odds but rarely sustained 75%+ strike rate on O0.5FHG.
If there’s 75% of a single FHG which is a decent strike rate, there is less than 75% of there being 2 FHG’s so if 2.00/50% is available on 1.5 FHG there’s a good opportunity to cash out for a profit of 50% of risk on under 1.5 75% of the time. If we lose, we loose the full stake/risk.
So say a loss is £10 at 2.0 and win is £5.00 cashing out. We can set the desired profit to exit on with auto cash out.
100 matches at 75%, 75x£5=£375. 25x£10=£250. Profit £125
You could argue that you’d just set and forget at 2.00 if you know that there is only 75% chance of 1 goal but i feel using the 1.5 market would be more resilient and stable over time. To break even on full set and forget we’d need half the matches to have 2 goals which is a lot and there would be more variance i think, but cashing out you could still profit on matches that do have 2 FHG and possibly achieve a higher strike than 75%
You could also apply this to other markets and strategies if you can get 2.0 knowing you’ll get around 75% strike rate cashing out for half the stake value in profit.
Hopefully that all kind of makes sense and I haven’t got my thinking wrong
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@chris-king yeah it's seem like a decent market to find value in so far, although very early days for my testing, so will see if it holds in the coming months.
I agree from my results quite a few matches have had very early goals so currently looks like the full half is best.
What I have done in my filter is add overall 1st goal time average is under 40mins (I assumed that means the average goal time between both teams). Amongst a few other bits of criteria. Trying to get few stats in my favour. -
@craig-vaulks Hi Craig, yeah i reckon you’re absolutely right to be looking at those odds from kick off and nothing else. I can only speak from my own experience of FHG which isn’t much at all in the grand scheme of things but lower odds becomes more complicated to deal with, plus if enough selections at 1.50/3.0 are available at kick off and you can get a strike rate of 70% plus why settle for anything less. You getting around 80% is awesome! Keep testing/tracking that one mate.
Wasn’t quite sure what you meant when you talked about lower overall first goal time? Low scoring teams with early first goal times?
I like your odds range qualifier on the 0-0 FT though. I’m finding other market odds ranges used as qualifying criteria quite interesting, like they give away clues to help back up your selections
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@chris-king hi Chris I'm currently looking into fhg's also with similar odds anything above 1.5 ideally I do this by putting 0-0 odds for full time 11 or below. I have had 38 out of 47 come in so far giving me around 80% strike rate. My way of thinking is l looking for low scoring teams but have a lower overall 1st goal time between them.
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@terry-heller Hi, thanks for looking at this. Tracking visually on Betfair I had 1.68/2.48 at 14 mins too. 2.00 was available in the 24th minute.
This is what i would get frustrated with in the past, especially with short priced goals matches, sometimes though the market does move quickly but it never seemed to be consistent, which what lead to my thinking that being in for the whole half on value odds at the right strike rate trumps all these factors, theoretically.
As far as set and forget goes, I’m fairly confident the filter will continue to provide the selections at value odds. The rest depends on whether it maintains a profitable strike rate.
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@chris-king The Mansfield game gave me these prices at these times
KO 3.0
7 mins 2.76
10 mins 2.64
14 mins 2.48Not dropping as fast as I thought but then I realised that it should actually be proportionate to the time regardless so at the halfway point in the half the price had pretty much exactly halved.
It was obvious really that this would be the case barring a red card.
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@terry-heller Nice one, i await the update. I’ll keep an eye on the market too.
What i have noticed in the past with short odds matches, so not with this version of the filter, is that the FHG O0.5G market can get quite static between 10-20 mins. Hopefully with these selections having a decent head start around 1.50/3.00 that isn’t the case.
Interestingly I’ve checked the filters a few times today including just now and it hasn’t come up for me at any point. I’ve just had a look on Betfair though and it’s high/low on the O1.5G market is 1.34-1.41..now 1.36 so i suppose it depends when you check.
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@chris-king I checked your filters for today and they both come up with the Mansfield game this evening so I have set up a fairbot automation to try something out using a target price rather than a timed trade. Just to get some real time perspective.
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@terry-heller Hi. Ah 2%?! Like an idiot i havn’t paid attention to this but just changed my reward plan. Thanks!
However i kind of like to test to 5% commission to see how robust a strategy might be so for continuity I’ll keep going with that for now, but that is a significant margin. Thanks again.
What i do is get the prices early to mid morning generally, put them in the spreadsheet and thats it. I’ll often check again in the evening for any over night matches.
This market does move quickly so with starting prices 1.50+/3.0- at kick off they are likely 2.0 or below at the 14 minute mark.
Lol the plan sounds good. I’ll try to keep an eye on as many of these as i can as they progress.
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Hi Chris
Looking at your spreadsheet it seems you are on 5% commission which if you changed your account to the 2% rate you would have increased your profit by £12.90.I assume that the prices you are recording are the Prices at KO and wonder if you have any record of the price change at various times the most obvious being at around the 14 minute mark. I think this market moves quite quickly and am thinking along the lines of 2.85 falling to around 2.0 at or even before 14 minutes. If so I think I have a cunning plan lol.
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@chris-king Yep I love all your thought processes around this as well, think its brilliant.
Wanting to be in for the whole half makes perfect sense, love the set and forget element and if this hold 6pts a month is solid.
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@jon-kinnear Nice thanks for pointing that out, hadn’t looked at the i play potential either as just been racking up the selections/stats. Ironic how wanting to get away from FHG in-play/trading there are now better angles for it.
Hopefully the stats will be this consistent particularly the strike rate being stable long term above 70-71%
Looking at entry around 15 mins I’ve edited the spreadsheet for the 1st goal column.
Entering at 15 mins (on or just prior to the match clock displaying 14 mins as this is the 15th minute of play) the count rises to 31 1st goals scored plus 7 extra for those matches that had the 1st goal prior to 15 mins and further goals/last goal after 15 mins totalling 38 winners 21 losers at 64% for a goal on or after 15 minutes any score line. -
@ryan Thanks very much. Yeah the first goal, if it’s getting scored often comes earlier rather than later which is something very common I’ve found in the various iterations of this filter.
Knowing or deciding when to get in/out on FHG has done my head in over the past months, hence a set and forget approach now. It alway felt that i needed to find a way to be in for the whole of the first half somehow.
I didn’t think I’d get the odds with the original filter to be honest and needed to reduce selection volume so reduced average goals from >=2.9 to >=2.0 and added minimum O1.5G odds (Full time market) of >= 1.38 as the correlation between O1.5G and FH O0.5G markets seemed to work well and leave a decent amount of selections.
To be honest I hadn’t noticed how low the SH O1.5G strike rate was. I added that a while back noticing that a lot of the time match’s were getting 50-55% O1.5G on the original filter so toyed with laying below evens.
On this though it is very low so would be great if that trend continued. Thanks for pointing it out!Over 2.5 goals strike rate is also pretty low, but as the weather gets warmer we’ve seen unders strategies suffer in April/May so that may increase.
It would be great to get two strategies out of the testing yes. One reason why I wanted a FH market strategy is that it’s then independent of any others which i may potentially be trading
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I see lots of value for in-play trades, as Ryan points out with that average goal time. I count 27 winners to 14 losers if entering at 15 mins and 12 winners to 14 losers if entering at 30 mins. Small sample but it looks impressive so far.
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@ronald-abbey Thanks for the support. Hoping there will be at least one successful strategy from all this that we can all benefit from
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@chris-king I like this, the average goal time is pretty snazzy as well isn't it, it would cut out a lot of winners if you waited till 22 mins so I wouldn't advise that.
One of things I like is the SH Over 1.5 goals so far that looks low allowing the potential to get another trade in a different market with the same selection.
Potentially 2 trading strategies (when more data and tested etc...) on the one selection in 2 different markets.
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Hello Chris , I like the sound of these strategies
and I will be following with interest .
Cheers