FHG Set & Forget
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
The more i think about it though, getting close to evens might be tricky but odds below 3.0 to lay and high enough strike rate might be enough for it to work.
I haven’t set a filter up for o1.5FHG market lay at 2.0. Just thoughts at the moment, but I’m testing the same concept on Sheet 1a.right got you so at the mo its a SHG market that you are looking at testing? on sheet 1a? are you giving yourself a 1 goal margin for error, so if a 1-1 you are looking to lay at 3.0 on the O3.5 goal market?
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
i really think you have something with the o1.5FHG market lay at 2.0. What filter do you use for that strategy? or have you not set one up yet? i mean below the had a SR of around 25% for 2 goals which leaves 75 non success rate. Flip that into a 75% SR trading for a 50% return as we have dicussed before and you have a powerful strat. Certainly how i would trade it.
Thanks, hopefully there is something to be found somewhere that works this way.
You got it though, exactly what you said. Seeing the successful strategies working on approx 1.50 to back/3.0 to lay at just above 70% SR being profitable i began thinking if i can hit a 75% SR trading for a 50% return where can that be applied.
Then i thought my FHG filter has returned a 70-75% SR for some time (It’s the second filter down in the original post). Can get 3.0 or below to lay in the selections and what if they strike above 70% consistently, so i started the test and created the first filter in the original post.
After starting that Ryan noticed the SHG O1.5 SR was low so i added a sheet to test that as S&F and then i thought if i can consistently get around 75% SR on that, wouldn’t opting for a 50% return still be profitable, because i could still win even if there are 2 goals, so i added a sheet to test that too.
Then i started to think if i can get closer to evens and 75% SR and opt for a 50% return, even better.
The more i think about it though, getting close to evens might be tricky but odds below 3.0 to lay and high enough strike rate might be enough for it to work.
I haven’t set a filter up for o1.5FHG market lay at 2.0. Just thoughts at the moment, but I’m testing the same concept on Sheet 1a.
I do think this approach could be applied to other markets, you just need to 75% SR trading for 50% return on total loss.
ok buddy can i ask a fav and just talk about one thing at a time? im so sorry but my dr got me on new meds and at mo im finding it hard to concentrate on multi stuff, so can we just focus on your FHG for the mo?
So its this filter?
And are you saying that you lay at 3.0? and is that on the O0.5FHG or O1.5FHG? and is this S&F to 50% profit or the lay stays in place for for the whole half, so its full stake loss or full profit?
if this is correct what sheet on the docs about is recording this?
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
i really think you have something with the o1.5FHG market lay at 2.0. What filter do you use for that strategy? or have you not set one up yet? i mean below the had a SR of around 25% for 2 goals which leaves 75 non success rate. Flip that into a 75% SR trading for a 50% return as we have dicussed before and you have a powerful strat. Certainly how i would trade it.
Thanks, hopefully there is something to be found somewhere that works this way.
You got it though, exactly what you said. Seeing the successful strategies working on approx 1.50 to back/3.0 to lay at just above 70% SR being profitable i began thinking if i can hit a 75% SR trading for a 50% return where can that be applied.
Then i thought my FHG filter has returned a 70-75% SR for some time (It’s the second filter down in the original post). Can get 3.0 or below to lay in the selections and what if they strike above 70% consistently, so i started the test and created the first filter in the original post.
After starting that Ryan noticed the SHG O1.5 SR was low so i added a sheet to test that as S&F and then i thought if i can consistently get around 75% SR on that, wouldn’t opting for a 50% return still be profitable, because i could still win even if there are 2 goals, so i added a sheet to test that too.
Then i started to think if i can get closer to evens and 75% SR and opt for a 50% return, even better.
The more i think about it though, getting close to evens might be tricky but odds below 3.0 to lay and high enough strike rate might be enough for it to work.
I haven’t set a filter up for o1.5FHG market lay at 2.0. Just thoughts at the moment, but I’m testing the same concept on Sheet 1a.
I do think this approach could be applied to other markets, you just need to 75% SR trading for 50% return on total loss.
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i really think you have something with the o1.5FHG market lay at 2.0. What filter do you use for that strategy? or have you not set one up yet? i mean below the had a SR of around 25% for 2 goals which leaves 75 non success rate. Flip that into a 75% SR trading for a 50% return as we have dicussed before and you have a powerful strat. Certainly how i would trade it.
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@chris-king ok so my FHG has a similar SR to yours, 135 trades, 89 winners for 66% SR. This strategy is the old FHG strat that used to be on the profitable members filter which they have since stopped trading.
So i set up the trades using a 50/50 spilt stakes , 50% at 15 Min and the remaining 50% at 30 Min, full loss is 100% of stake, so there is no trading out, so its a set and forget basically.
What ive done for the spreadsheet attached, and this is based on £10 stakes:
0_1680264611364_FHG analysis - ex profit members filter.xlsx
ave odds in the O0.5fhg market is 1.6 at 15M, so £10 stake is £3.5 Profit
ave odds in the O0.5fhg market is 2.3 at 30M, so £10 stake is £9.5 ProfitAfter 135 trades my profit was £67 and that nearly 7 points, not that great but of course profit is profit.
The biggest issue with spilt stakes is its difficult to see if a SR is profitable or not because if all of them had a goal after 30M the profit would be higher if you get my drift. Normally you look at odds and SR rates, for with our SR being similar we need to look at odds of 1.5 and above in order to break even or make profit.
Now can you tell me which of the 3 filters above relates to your FHG results?
Ive attached the filter i used here:
0_1680264524818_FHG - ex profit members filter.txt
The one thing I haven’t done is look at leagues so I need to look at that, but i think between us we could work on 2 systems and compare notes to which one is effective while continuing to test maybe? Our goal is one of the same to create a sustainable working model that once tested can be rinsed and repeated and of course shared.
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@chris-king crazy night been busy with a work thing but im off tomorrow so im going to have a proper look at this tomorrow and im bound to have some questions, so get ready
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@chris-king now this i clearer as to be honest i was getting absoluetly confused
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@nick-allan FHG O0.5, O1.5 and U1.5 stats so far
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@nick-allan On sheet 1b I’m back testing/filling the selections with past odds available on Flash Score. I find the match and the U1.5G SH market odds and work out the average price using the lowest and highest bookmaker odds available, then convert it to the lay equivalent which is about as close as i can get backtesting wise
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
Added the first version of FHG S&F 70-75% filter to the original post. Lots of short priced selections usually.
Yeah absolutely if you've got a 75% strike rate and you're hitting 50% you're laughing, I think any trader would look at that return and think that's quite handsome.
I also completely understand the set and forget element of it, so you take out the in play stats variance. I mean just because a match is heating up it doesn't mean that you're gonna get a goal. I remember when I used to do scalping of matches where I be so focused on the in place stats that I'd enter and exit games based on the stats, and in a lot of cases games where the inplay stats were really strong where you had four or five shots on target you wouldn't have a goal, and games where there was like one shot on target you'd end up having a goal. Football is football it doesn't always play out as you'd expect it to be, but of course that's trading, you're not always going to be right. In this case you only need to be right 50% of the time to break even, and anything above that is profit so a 75% strike rate would see a healthy profit.
From what I can see on your spreadsheet and I might be reading the wrong cause it seems that there are quite a few tabs and I'm a bit confused as to what tab relates to what strategy? But at face value it didn't seem like you got two goals in the first half in any of the trades anyway? So I take it at the moment although it's in a testing phase it's hugely successful? Or am I reading it wrong?
So tell me a little bit more about these filters:
FHG S&F 70-75%
0_1679409550935_filter-settings.txt 2.json
(First version of the above filter)
0_1680122859135_filter-settings.txt 5.json
FHG S&F New
0_1679409596001_filter-settings.txt 4.jsonWhich one do you use for identifying matches where pre match stats tell you there are 2 teams that have a 75% or above record on u1.5FHG?
I might start testing this at £1 stakes to see how they goHopefully I’ve made things a bit clearer. I’ve labelled the sheets and explained this in the original post where I’ve labelled the filter links.
Sheet 2 stands alone and was a separate/new filter to test O0.5 FHG along side Sheet 1. Sheet 2 is looking like backing U0.5 FHG is the way to go, but I’m interested to see how much it loses for now.
To further confuse you, I’m not testing the 75% U1.5 theory on the FHG, i just had a thought that i think this would be possible so posted what was on my mind, that we have then got chatting about.
However i had those thoughts because i am testing the same theory on SHG U1.5 on filter/sheet 1a and 1b after Ryan noticed how low the strike rate on O1.5 SHG was on sheet 1.
It’s early days and a small sample but i thought it worth tracking as a secondary set and forget on exactly the same filter.
Then i thought if i can get 75% on U1.5 SHG as set and forget, i should be able to cash out for 50% profit more often than 75 times out of 100 to win on the matches where there might be 2 late SHG etc so just thought i’d give it a test to, the aim being to put the trade on at HT and set the auto cash out for 50% and let it run.
Both the SHG tests are put the trade on at HT and let it run.
It’s after doing this and thinking about the 75% theory and how it could be applied to other markets etc i thought that might also work well on U1.5 FHG too.
What I’ve said is odds of 2.0 would be ideal and i think they do exist but not sure how many selections there’ll be, it might be that it’s more like 2.5-3.0 so where that might work as a straight set and forget from KO i don’t know if taking 50% profit will counter the loses in the long run. Depends on the O1.5G strike rate…that’s why i started testing the U1.5 SHG as it’s currently at about 75% on Sheet 1
Feel free to test it, it may work better than the SHG U1.5. Depends on the 1.5 FHG strike rate. Could be one that works. If you do the filter to use is un the label ‘FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1) Also Sheet 1a, 1b for SHG U1.5G S&F)’
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@chris-king anither question i wanted to ask, if there has been a fhg before you enetered the trade do you leave it? or do you enter when u1.5 fhg market when the market settles down as of course you would only have a 1 goal margin for error but the time decay would be faster? or would you look at the u2.5fhg market and wait for that to hit 2.0?
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
Added the first version of FHG S&F 70-75% filter to the original post. Lots of short priced selections usually.
Yeah absolutely if you've got a 75% strike rate and you're hitting 50% you're laughing, I think any trader would look at that return and think that's quite handsome.
I also completely understand the set and forget element of it, so you take out the in play stats variance. I mean just because a match is heating up it doesn't mean that you're gonna get a goal. I remember when I used to do scalping of matches where I be so focused on the in place stats that I'd enter and exit games based on the stats, and in a lot of cases games where the inplay stats were really strong where you had four or five shots on target you wouldn't have a goal, and games where there was like one shot on target you'd end up having a goal. Football is football it doesn't always play out as you'd expect it to be, but of course that's trading, you're not always going to be right. In this case you only need to be right 50% of the time to break even, and anything above that is profit so a 75% strike rate would see a healthy profit.
From what I can see on your spreadsheet and I might be reading the wrong cause it seems that there are quite a few tabs and I'm a bit confused as to what tab relates to what strategy? But at face value it didn't seem like you got two goals in the first half in any of the trades anyway? So I take it at the moment although it's in a testing phase it's hugely successful? Or am I reading it wrong?
So tell me a little bit more about these filters:
FHG S&F 70-75%
0_1679409550935_filter-settings.txt 2.json
(First version of the above filter)
0_1680122859135_filter-settings.txt 5.json
FHG S&F New
0_1679409596001_filter-settings.txt 4.jsonWhich one do you use for identifying matches where pre match stats tell you there are 2 teams that have a 75% or above record on u1.5FHG?
I might start testing this at £1 stakes to see how they go -
Added the first version of FHG S&F 70-75% filter to the original post. Lots of short priced selections usually.
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi Nick, sorry for any confusion. Yes laying over 1.5 or backing under 1.5. FHg Market at 2.0 or thereabouts, and exiting the trade when there is a 50% profit
so you aren’t expecting a FHG? Or are not expecting 2? what’s the time decay like? is it quite fast? are we talking 10 mins-ish?
I used to trade a u1.5 fhg market set and forget targeting teams with a strong fh defence records and both H and A teams had to have 85% u1.5fhg stat, but it didn’t work and over 100 trades the SR was very poor.
It doesn’t matter how many goals. What we want is odds of 2.00 for under 1.5 FHG goals from the start or early on and to then exit the trade with 50% profit.
So there could be 2 or more goals in the half, but that doesn’t matter if the profit target’s been reached and we’ve exited the trade.
Generally the decay on 0.5 is fast but, but can get static on matches where goals are expected so it’s not as simple or easy as as waiting until 15/20 mins on that market in my opinion.
I’ve not studied 1.5 FH but it’s inevitably faster as there is less chance of 2 FHG’s.
If there is an early goal though the 1.5 will then take on the characteristics of the 0.5, but statistically there is much lower chance of 2 FHG than 1 so that may work to an advantage if you’re on the under 1.5 market and only after 50% profitI see. In my early attempts at trading I attempted to trade the U1.5 FHG market too. Variance was significant, but back then i understood odds and markets a lot less, didn’t really understand value as much, or strike rates, more importantly how all of these elements are dependent on each other in a profitable strategy. I feel I’m also better in tracking data now.
I know that if i can get a 75% strike rate and a win earns me 50% of what a loss is, I’ll be profitable, if the strike rate is higher, then you’re on to some thing very good. Tomasz O1.5G set and forget works in the same way really, most of the selections are around 3.00 so a loss is double what a win is and thats striking at 73.3% so it doesn’t even need to be 75%, you can still be profitable at 70%. This approach can probably be applied to a lot of markets and trading. To me it just feels steady and reliable and loses are factored in.
- Now i think about it, you could apply this to the FT 3.5 market on matches where odds are around 2.00. How many matches have 4 goals, even if odds are really short.
Yeah in principle I agree with you, I certainly understand value more now and in looking at a strike rate of 75% you are right this could be a profitable strategy. Time decay is always an interesting one, I think one of the beginner strategies that Ryan and Martin always talk about is looking at back the under 3.5 goal market at the start of a game and exiting on say the 10th minute you'd also look at teams that didn't score as much in the first ten minutes and if there wouldn't be a significant shots on target within that 10 minutes you would exit the trade. Would you look at any particular in play stats? say if you had a game that had three shots on targets from when you entered the trade would you think about exiting as the game has heated up? or are you rigid on your entry and exit points because you looking for that minimum amount of profit to justify the strike rate so to speak?
Are there specific games that you're going to be looking at? Are you gonna be looking at strong first half goal markets because they are more likely to decay faster than say poor first half goal markets? The idea itself sounds great but I'm wondering how you're going to go around picking the match selections? I agree that the under 1.5 fhg market is better in case you do get that first half goal early, The O.5 FHG market will go faster, but I think you need that level of insurance, and are you going to wait until you hit the 50% profit market or lose the full stake if get 2 goals? Does that factor into your 75% SR calculation?
yeah i think one of the beginner strats that the BTC comm say to start with is the u3.5 goal market but i cant remember the exit and entry points, ill have a look on the strat page
Yes one of the easy beginner strategies Ryan talks about is backing under 3.5 and getting out on 10-15 mins as you say. Forgot about that one. Depending on the odds i think this works on similar win/loss value parameter’s, so if you can get the strike rate, you just rinse and repeat and scale.
The way i trade/test and the way i want to continue is really only using pre match stats and data from forward testing. I do gather past odds from Flash Score and Bet Explorer to back test which is time consuming but i find is helpful.
I dont really do anything according to in play stats. That’s why i like the set and forget ideas and the get in at A and out at B regardless of what’s happening approach. If i can get the odds i want and i know the long term strike rate, it’s tested and rides out variance that’s how i want to do it. I’d rather not be swayed by what’s going on in play. I’d be rigid with my entry and exit yes if i’m hitting above the required strike rate because I know it’s profitable long term and scale-able and thats all it needs to be. Testing really does help with that as does paper trading on proven strategies as the BTC chaps always stress.
If i were to test something like this I’d create or use a filter i already have. Firstly i suppose I’d want to see if i can get matches where i can get around 2.0 on FH 1.5 as a starting price, so these would be pretty short odds goals matches and then see if any of them have overall stats of 75% or more for under 1.5 FHG as some initial parameters because we’re in safe territory with those and adjust from there. Might not be able to get much at 2.0 and 75% but as we’re only after 50% profit target we probably don’t need as high as 75%.
I’d only be after the 50% profit and happy with a full stake loss if i knew i was getting a profitable strike rate. Then losses are taken in to account and there’s no sweating over them. Just set and forget. Then you can scale it. If you get to that point there’s nothing to say you can’t refine it more or tackle it in more of a trading style to get it more profitable.
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certainly peaked my interest i have to say chris :thumbs_up:
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi Nick, sorry for any confusion. Yes laying over 1.5 or backing under 1.5. FHg Market at 2.0 or thereabouts, and exiting the trade when there is a 50% profit
so you aren’t expecting a FHG? Or are not expecting 2? what’s the time decay like? is it quite fast? are we talking 10 mins-ish?
I used to trade a u1.5 fhg market set and forget targeting teams with a strong fh defence records and both H and A teams had to have 85% u1.5fhg stat, but it didn’t work and over 100 trades the SR was very poor.
It doesn’t matter how many goals. What we want is odds of 2.00 for under 1.5 FHG goals from the start or early on and to then exit the trade with 50% profit.
So there could be 2 or more goals in the half, but that doesn’t matter if the profit target’s been reached and we’ve exited the trade.
Generally the decay on 0.5 is fast but, but can get static on matches where goals are expected so it’s not as simple or easy as as waiting until 15/20 mins on that market in my opinion.
I’ve not studied 1.5 FH but it’s inevitably faster as there is less chance of 2 FHG’s.
If there is an early goal though the 1.5 will then take on the characteristics of the 0.5, but statistically there is much lower chance of 2 FHG than 1 so that may work to an advantage if you’re on the under 1.5 market and only after 50% profitI see. In my early attempts at trading I attempted to trade the U1.5 FHG market too. Variance was significant, but back then i understood odds and markets a lot less, didn’t really understand value as much, or strike rates, more importantly how all of these elements are dependent on each other in a profitable strategy. I feel I’m also better in tracking data now.
I know that if i can get a 75% strike rate and a win earns me 50% of what a loss is, I’ll be profitable, if the strike rate is higher, then you’re on to some thing very good. Tomasz O1.5G set and forget works in the same way really, most of the selections are around 3.00 so a loss is double what a win is and thats striking at 73.3% so it doesn’t even need to be 75%, you can still be profitable at 70%. This approach can probably be applied to a lot of markets and trading. To me it just feels steady and reliable and loses are factored in.
- Now i think about it, you could apply this to the FT 3.5 market on matches where odds are around 2.00. How many matches have 4 goals, even if odds are really short.
Yeah in principle I agree with you, I certainly understand value more now and in looking at a strike rate of 75% you are right this could be a profitable strategy. Time decay is always an interesting one, I think one of the beginner strategies that Ryan and Martin always talk about is looking at back the under 3.5 goal market at the start of a game and exiting on say the 10th minute you'd also look at teams that didn't score as much in the first ten minutes and if there wouldn't be a significant shots on target within that 10 minutes you would exit the trade. Would you look at any particular in play stats? say if you had a game that had three shots on targets from when you entered the trade would you think about exiting as the game has heated up? or are you rigid on your entry and exit points because you looking for that minimum amount of profit to justify the strike rate so to speak?
Are there specific games that you're going to be looking at? Are you gonna be looking at strong first half goal markets because they are more likely to decay faster than say poor first half goal markets? The idea itself sounds great but I'm wondering how you're going to go around picking the match selections? I agree that the under 1.5 fhg market is better in case you do get that first half goal early, The O.5 FHG market will go faster, but I think you need that level of insurance, and are you going to wait until you hit the 50% profit market or lose the full stake if get 2 goals? Does that factor into your 75% SR calculation?
yeah i think one of the beginner strats that the BTC comm say to start with is the u3.5 goal market but i cant remember the exit and entry points, ill have a look on the strat page
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi Nick, sorry for any confusion. Yes laying over 1.5 or backing under 1.5. FHg Market at 2.0 or thereabouts, and exiting the trade when there is a 50% profit
so you aren’t expecting a FHG? Or are not expecting 2? what’s the time decay like? is it quite fast? are we talking 10 mins-ish?
I used to trade a u1.5 fhg market set and forget targeting teams with a strong fh defence records and both H and A teams had to have 85% u1.5fhg stat, but it didn’t work and over 100 trades the SR was very poor.
It doesn’t matter how many goals. What we want is odds of 2.00 for under 1.5 FHG goals from the start or early on and to then exit the trade with 50% profit.
So there could be 2 or more goals in the half, but that doesn’t matter if the profit target’s been reached and we’ve exited the trade.
Generally the decay on 0.5 is fast but, but can get static on matches where goals are expected so it’s not as simple or easy as as waiting until 15/20 mins on that market in my opinion.
I’ve not studied 1.5 FH but it’s inevitably faster as there is less chance of 2 FHG’s.
If there is an early goal though the 1.5 will then take on the characteristics of the 0.5, but statistically there is much lower chance of 2 FHG than 1 so that may work to an advantage if you’re on the under 1.5 market and only after 50% profitI see. In my early attempts at trading I attempted to trade the U1.5 FHG market too. Variance was significant, but back then i understood odds and markets a lot less, didn’t really understand value as much, or strike rates, more importantly how all of these elements are dependent on each other in a profitable strategy. I feel I’m also better in tracking data now.
I know that if i can get a 75% strike rate and a win earns me 50% of what a loss is, I’ll be profitable, if the strike rate is higher, then you’re on to some thing very good. Tomasz O1.5G set and forget works in the same way really, most of the selections are around 3.00 so a loss is double what a win is and thats striking at 73.3% so it doesn’t even need to be 75%, you can still be profitable at 70%. This approach can probably be applied to a lot of markets and trading. To me it just feels steady and reliable and loses are factored in.
- Now i think about it, you could apply this to the FT 3.5 market on matches where odds are around 2.00. How many matches have 4 goals, even if odds are really short.
Yeah in principle I agree with you, I certainly understand value more now and in looking at a strike rate of 75% you are right this could be a profitable strategy. Time decay is always an interesting one, I think one of the beginner strategies that Ryan and Martin always talk about is looking at back the under 3.5 goal market at the start of a game and exiting on say the 10th minute you'd also look at teams that didn't score as much in the first ten minutes and if there wouldn't be a significant shots on target within that 10 minutes you would exit the trade. Would you look at any particular in play stats? say if you had a game that had three shots on targets from when you entered the trade would you think about exiting as the game has heated up? or are you rigid on your entry and exit points because you looking for that minimum amount of profit to justify the strike rate so to speak?
Are there specific games that you're going to be looking at? Are you gonna be looking at strong first half goal markets because they are more likely to decay faster than say poor first half goal markets? The idea itself sounds great but I'm wondering how you're going to go around picking the match selections? I agree that the under 1.5 fhg market is better in case you do get that first half goal early, The O.5 FHG market will go faster, but I think you need that level of insurance, and are you going to wait until you hit the 50% profit market or lose the full stake if get 2 goals? Does that factor into your 75% SR calculation?
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@nick-allan said in FHG Set & Forget:
@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi Nick, sorry for any confusion. Yes laying over 1.5 or backing under 1.5. FHg Market at 2.0 or thereabouts, and exiting the trade when there is a 50% profit
so you aren’t expecting a FHG? Or are not expecting 2? what’s the time decay like? is it quite fast? are we talking 10 mins-ish?
I used to trade a u1.5 fhg market set and forget targeting teams with a strong fh defence records and both H and A teams had to have 85% u1.5fhg stat, but it didn’t work and over 100 trades the SR was very poor.
It doesn’t matter how many goals. What we want is odds of 2.00 for under 1.5 FHG goals from the start or early on and to then exit the trade with 50% profit.
So there could be 2 or more goals in the half, but that doesn’t matter if the profit target’s been reached and we’ve exited the trade.
Generally the decay on 0.5 is fast but, but can get static on matches where goals are expected so it’s not as simple or easy as as waiting until 15/20 mins on that market in my opinion.
I’ve not studied 1.5 FH but it’s inevitably faster as there is less chance of 2 FHG’s.
If there is an early goal though the 1.5 will then take on the characteristics of the 0.5, but statistically there is much lower chance of 2 FHG than 1 so that may work to an advantage if you’re on the under 1.5 market and only after 50% profitI see. In my early attempts at trading I attempted to trade the U1.5 FHG market too. Variance was significant, but back then i understood odds and markets a lot less, didn’t really understand value as much, or strike rates, more importantly how all of these elements are dependent on each other in a profitable strategy. I feel I’m also better in tracking data now.
I know that if i can get a 75% strike rate and a win earns me 50% of what a loss is, I’ll be profitable, if the strike rate is higher, then you’re on to some thing very good. Tomasz O1.5G set and forget works in the same way really, most of the selections are around 3.00 so a loss is double what a win is and thats striking at 73.3% so it doesn’t even need to be 75%, you can still be profitable at 70%. This approach can probably be applied to a lot of markets and trading. To me it just feels steady and reliable and loses are factored in.
- Now i think about it, you could apply this to the FT 3.5 market on matches where odds are around 2.00. How many matches have 4 goals, even if odds are really short.
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@chris-king said in FHG Set & Forget:
@nick-allan Hi Nick, sorry for any confusion. Yes laying over 1.5 or backing under 1.5. FHg Market at 2.0 or thereabouts, and exiting the trade when there is a 50% profit
so you aren’t expecting a FHG? Or are not expecting 2? what’s the time decay like? is it quite fast? are we talking 10 mins-ish?
I used to trade a u1.5 fhg market set and forget targeting teams with a strong fh defence records and both H and A teams had to have 85% u1.5fhg stat, but it didn’t work and over 100 trades the SR was very poor.
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@nick-allan Hi Nick, sorry for any confusion. Yes laying over 1.5 or backing under 1.5. FHg Market at 2.0 or thereabouts, and exiting the trade when there is a 50% profit