Two conditions or factors which marry up well...

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I come from a strong football background so the horses are new to me and there are so many things I just don't know. I didn't realise horses were graded/scored on pace for example until I saw one of Martin's YouTube videos.

I want to create some strategies which combine two logical factors to give me an edge over the average Joe, but I have no idea what they could be except the obvious one which is won at the course and distance.

Someone mentioned pace horses on flat courses, which was the light bulb moment for this question. Can anyone help me out with some other things I could use together as a base to create a new strategy.

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I've been offline for a few days so not been able to get my picks from it. I can't decide whether to have a couple of wider strategies or loads of really niche ones.

Tony Hastie

@david-milligan He snuck it in when noone was looking
@Martin @Emily-Knowles's has had 2 selections for a 50% win record. £2 stakes, currently £10.40 to the good

David Milligan

@martin great, must have missed it!

Martin

@david-milligan 0_1680028713002_rules_export.json

should be this one

David Milligan

@martin I've got 3.0, did I miss the 4.0 update?

Martin

@emily-knowles I'm testing quite a few at the moment and we have the member presets which have been tested for a while. I liked the look of the one you created how has that been getting on?

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@martin I use this link https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/horse-racing-strategies-main-strategies-click-here.

Maybe it's because the original date is on them, so they all look like summer 2022.

Martin

@emily-knowles which thread is that? Pretty sure I've had some since then, back the fav for example is on version 4.0 now

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@Martin I'm working my way through the playlists, I watch every video to the end because I really believe in squeezing every drop of information out of good sources that I can. Currently half way through the horse racing playlist, so no requests just yet. The content thus far is super!

I did notice that there hasn't been any new horse racing strategies in the thread since June 2022. Are there some more in the pipe line?

Martin

@john-folan said in Two conditions or factors which marry up well...:

Pace on the flat turf is the one to look at. The number 8 seems to be pretty decent there(more profitable depending on what you are looking at than 10 and 12 for some reason). I'm gagging for this flat season to start. Runner numbers combined with course filters(some are more pacey than others is a good way to filter further.

Laying, Beaten favourites is very profitable it would seem however you approach it.

This interests me and makes sense actually, market will expect 10 and 12 horses to have pace and factor that into price, diminishing any original value. However, the 8 horses probably get lost in the midst.

@Emily-Knowles glad you are enjoying my videos, any topic that you think I should cover?

John Folan

@akiva-anderson said in Two conditions or factors which marry up well...:

@emily-knowles said in Two conditions or factors which marry up well...:

Superb I look forward to hearing John's theories and strategies.

I hear @John-Folan 's theories everyday. Believe me, you don't want to go there!!

We really must sort our pillow talk out

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One tip when creating strategies would be not to use the entire dataset to develop the strategy on. A quick and dirty example would be to only use 2022 data. Then when you think you are there remove that filter to see how it performs on the full dataset. You will be surprised how easy it is to create a strategy that looks insanely profitable yet fails days into unseen data. We dont really have enough data for comprehensive out of sample testing on every strategy type but its given me confidence going live.

Akiva Anderson

@emily-knowles said in Two conditions or factors which marry up well...:

Superb I look forward to hearing John's theories and strategies.

I hear @John-Folan 's theories everyday. Believe me, you don't want to go there!!

Dan MacKinnon

Before you go through every single breakdown, there is a handful that tends to impact results and I look at them first. For me I like to review

Day of the week (I don't usually filter this but it is interesting if you consistently see a bad day, such as Saturday on the short odds)
No. of Runners
No. of Non-Runners
Class
Race Type
Age
DSLR
Distance
Handicap - Yes/No
Favourite?
Entry Price

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in Two conditions or factors which marry up well...:

Something I noticed (And I think John pointed it out to me) is to try and have a "base strategy" with very few filters. Then go through the individual results before adding another filter so you can see the impact. For example, you might look at the breakdown and see having 15+ runners is unprofitable, but just write that down before you go and add that filter because it'll have a knock on effect as you keep going through.

We talked about this quite a lot didn’t we? The effect different filters had on each other. It was pretty eye opening. It’s why it’s good to look at each discipline separately as you have done with the flat turf.

Dan MacKinnon

Something I noticed (And I think John pointed it out to me) is to try and have a "base strategy" with very few filters. Then go through the individual results before adding another filter so you can see the impact. For example, you might look at the breakdown and see having 15+ runners is unprofitable, but just write that down before you go and add that filter because it'll have a knock on effect as you keep going through.

John Folan

Pace on the flat turf is the one to look at. The number 8 seems to be pretty decent there(more profitable depending on what you are looking at than 10 and 12 for some reason). I'm gagging for this flat season to start. Runner numbers combined with course filters(some are more pacey than others is a good way to filter further.

Laying, Beaten favourites is very profitable it would seem however you approach it.

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Superb I look forward to hearing John's theories and strategies.

Ryan

@emily-knowles I'll drop @John-folan here as well he is a bit of a beast with the horses and our software.

Some of his strategies have been pretty strong too and others have used them to build off them.