Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@tony-hastie Not sure this is a good strategy. I dont think its robust so i have dropped it from my portfolio. There is a thing with this version and the original in the presets. They both bomb instantly after the creation date. This version was only created a month ago and has had a loss first month after creation and its heading for another which is a stark contrast to its performance over the prev 2 years. Thats a screaming red flag, bit more than variance i think. The original its based off did exactly the same.
There is another thing that makes me think that too. I have started using a different method of strategy creation and optimisation to try to get more robustness. I add a filter for 2022 only. I develop/test/optmise with that then only when i am happy do i remove it. This is like having a massive forward test and backtest on out of sample data. I take some basic fundamental ideas (back the fav, Back C&D winner, Back pace horse, Lay beaten fav etc) and apply this method. I havent found a single variation of backing the fav that passes this simple out of sample test. All look incredible on the test data but instantly bomb on the out of sample. Thats not the case for the other ideas which maintain profitabilty.
I could be wrong and it could just be a bad month but the evidence says its curve fitted. I will wait till i actually see that one generate consistent months of profits before putting money into it.
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Made a bit of a tweak to Martins back the fav 3.0 after a bad run with those big fields at Cheltenham. Basically Ive limited the field size to 18 and it increases the ROI by 1% in back testing. Here it is if anyone wants to check it out...0_1678999976010_rules_export.json
Hope Ive done that right
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@shaun-casson
Its not real. Impossible to trade as per the rules.
You have Horse Traded Rank as a criteria.
The backtest uses this value taken at the end of the race. So, obviously horses that have near zero volume traded are the ones that dont win. Horses that are in the top 3 positionsin running get shed loads matched. In fact traded volume at the end of the race is almost as good as actual finishing position. -
@tom-2 said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@karl-pick said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Georgi Girl
Yes, Georgi Girl was listed as the one to back.
I think I need to watch more video's as I'm confused too.This is the guide to the strategy, both written and video form: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/back-course-distance-winner
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@karl-pick said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Georgi Girl
Yes, Georgi Girl was listed as the one to back.
I think I need to watch more video's as I'm confused too. -
@tom-2 said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@martin Hi Matin,
Newbie question.
I'm doing the "Back The Course & Distance Winner" today for the first time and the favourite has changed!
Do I stick with the original favourite from the horse racing stats or do I switch to the new favourite?
Georgi Girl to Despereaux. 13:40 - Taunton.Just as well I did switch, as it won, but as a rule, what should I do in that situation?
cONFUSED?
As neither of these are C+D qualifiers, do you mean Back the Favourite? -
@martin Hi Matin,
Newbie question.
I'm doing the "Back The Course & Distance Winner" today for the first time and the favourite has changed!
Do I stick with the original favourite from the horse racing stats or do I switch to the new favourite?
Georgi Girl to Despereaux. 13:40 - Taunton.Just as well I did switch, as it won, but as a rule, what should I do in that situation?
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@tony-hastie one or two ticks difference for me
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Hey folks
Regarding the Back the fave from the off strategy I understand that if there are 2 horses going at similar odds its best not to trade the race. My question is...how similar is similar? If one was at 3.5 and one was at 4 would that be considered similar? I guess the call is subjective but would be interested to know others thoughts
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@nathan-cooke said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Hey team, am I correct in saying that if there are two horses qualifying for C&D then no bet is placed?
I split my bank to potentially Win the same!!
Example £5 on 3/1 shot, £3 on 5/1 shot. If my bank was £8.
It works for me anyway -
Thanks Paul like I said it felt like I was missing something.
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I’m running a DOB strategy that’s doing quite well but noticing any selections with a girl’s name in it seem to struggle.
Can we get a filter for that?
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@nathan-cooke in the betting rules (run the strategy) it will tell you
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Hey team, am I correct in saying that if there are two horses qualifying for C&D then no bet is placed?
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@shaun-casson when you look at the individual trades there are selections that were 3rd, 2nd and even 1st Fave.
I think that the Horse Traded Rank is selecting the horse that was 4th highest traded at the end of the race, so these will always be 100%.
Removing Horse Traded Rank "4" and adding in Favourite "4" changes the strike rate to 86% and 1417 trades
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Yes started live trading on the 3rd March using bot manager small stakes of 2% of a £50 bank. 10 trades no losses so far.
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@shaun-casson it certainly looks pretty tasty on the software - have you forward tested it in real life?
