The BTC Football Trading Thread
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What a grind today is! Last Sunday was the same. Yesterday was good but today….not so much!
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Recurring theme from Keith, Emmett etc story of my weekend, 3 disallowed goals in Rostock and 1 in St Pauli. My hate, hate relationship with Bund 2 continues
Goal came late in Rostock but I'm looking at next goal + 1 also both games had red cards
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@keith-anderson Same here- missed penalties, really bad VAR decisions and statistical improbabilities.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG in the Mallorca v Real Madrid match. 1-0 at HT
Missed penalty. Been the story this weekend
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SHG in the Feyenoord v PSV match. 0-1 at HT
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SHG in the Mallorca v Real Madrid match. 1-0 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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Lay Under 1.5 Roda
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Back at it today..
LTD
Cambuur vs Ajax (need odds to come in a bit)
Spezia vs Napoli
Ferencvaros vs Ujpest
St Gilloise vs WaregemFerencvaros and Cambuur will be 01.5
Other 01.5
Brno vs Plzeň
Porto vs Vizela02.5 Split Stake
Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor
FHG
Galatasaray
Brno -
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-harrison I've always monitored leagues but to date have found that (on my filters anyway) I can attribute losses to randomness .. which I think is a decent place to be .. I never accept it as that, always go back and look, but in general if there is no pattern to losses I think its a good thing.. if that makes any sense
This is exactly my feelings. If I find a reason then that's reason enough. If it appears completely random I'll take it on the chin.
It's surprising how little can be attributed to random when you analyse everything in my opinion.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG in the Real Betis v Celta Vigo match. 2-2 at HT
God bless 2-2 games. They are addictive.
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Out of interest just had a look and for example on one of my 02.5 filters the last losing Bundesliga trade was March last year .. there have been over 200 trades on that league overall and a SR of 85% for the league which compares with the overall SR but no losses since I tweaked the filter in September until today.
My LTD I have never had a Bundesliga loss until today and my 01.5 my last losing Bundesliga trade was April last year ..
I'll keep an eye on it but the other key part of that is that for my filters there are a couple of hundred successful trades that I'd miss out on.. like I say it will be specific to peoples filters but for me I'd be loathe to drop that league.. others.. Croatia last week I was close to booting for example but I'll go back and do the maths.
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SHG in the Real Betis v Celta Vigo match. 2-2 at HT
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@matthew-harrison I've always monitored leagues but to date have found that (on my filters anyway) I can attribute losses to randomness .. which I think is a decent place to be .. I never accept it as that, always go back and look, but in general if there is no pattern to losses I think its a good thing.. if that makes any sense
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@matthew-harrison
Edit: I know the Bundesliga hasn’t had 3 weeks post World Cup but it had a very dodgy start back in August
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For me, if a league has 3 bad weeks running it gets paper traded for 4 weeks until things pick up.
Serie A was very close also, but since recovered.
Only league I’ve permanently banned is the Superettan
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@matthew-harrison really interesting mate thank you:
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Here’s what my s&f filters look like with German and Polish leagues. Constant greens from other leagues but big reds from those leagues post World Cup. I don’t trade them but I keep a note of results
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@matthew-harrison Interesting will take a look at that.. I see today as a "correction" my O1.5 was on a winning streak of 26.. was bound to come to an end I guess and LTD recently finished a streak (greening up) of 42.. so it was bound to correct.. these are the days when I revisit the maths of the last few hundred trades to reassure that overall the strike rate is where it needs to be .. but will definitely look at variation of leagues .. to be fair I had Frankfurt, Bochum and Dortmund games on filter and they were ok..
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@andy-harris said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I don't know if anyone has got any back testing or data on the u3.5 goals strategy? It's doing badly at the minute, is it worth flipping it into an over 3.5 goals strategy? The odds for this is over 3.0 for almost all games so the strike rate wouldn't need to be that high to be profitable.
I've stopped all trading on the set and forgets until they improve. The last 6 weeks have been shocking
