Trading Q and A Megathread Ask Us Anything!
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Hi guys i hope i dont sound to stupid
.When u look at a strategy the strike rate could be high but u could still lose money but if the ROI is good it means that the strategy is a good one (i think thats right).So firstly could someone tell me how do you work out ROI on a strategy and could you help me work it out for my strategy that ive made.I made one that basically filters out games that have a very low amount of goals in the 1st 20 mins and i scalp the over 2.5 goal market.I use £25 stakes and i get in and out of the market every 2 ticks.i keep doing that until 15 mins have passed,its going pretty well at the mo ive won 16/16 trades and ive won £38.38.I just wondered if i could work out the ROI for it?Cheers guys:thumbs_up: -
@martin-futter Still not great but using my sheets I'm able to find value, which as I'm sure you know is the best type of betting strat. I'm hitting FHG value bet's regularly & profitably thanks to BTS stats and my rigourous recording of data. I call those trades so they are done on the exchanges. They can't actually be traded unless I back O1.5 FHG's, which for my sheets becomes value @ 2.70 - 2.75
So that's where I'm concentrating, I also do a variation of Ryan's O1.5, explained elswhere today. I've posted todays, so I've gone public for the first time. We can all see how good or bad my choices are today.
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@neil-mallett thats just one strategy, there are 9 others, including one for straight gambling or set & forget as some like to say.
The strategy in the pic has it's 1126th game on the sheet today.
Sheet may look complicated but all I input manually is the 1h & 2H scores and time of the first (or last depending on strat) goal. All the other numbers update as the games come in. Game, time, teams etc before the first yellow line are pasted from BTC stats.
Record as much as you can though, it's amazing how the data can lead you down a different road from what you originally intended. I started a 'which team scores first' strat which has now become a second half goals strat for LTD or back 2 more goals in the 2nd half. The sheets get bigger as I notice new patterns. It's fun & very interesting but it doesn't make me much money yet. I'm still a better gambler than trader. -
@neil-mallett Wow that's some spreadsheet!
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@james
Everything!
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@martin-futter Cheers Martin I will have a look.
In this instance I was looking at a filter where teams have a certain amount of SOT. Was doing so so and then I started to notice there seemed to be a lot of goals coming in the first half bit i hadnt recorded all of them.
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@james what is the angle specifically you are looking at? if you can obtain strike rate you can work out average odds as a rough guide and see if it is profitable. you can click the link in my signature to see what I track when testing
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Just wondering if anybody would be able to help here. I have been paper trading FHG a filter that I thought was promising before it leveled out to break even but when looking harder thought there was possibly another way to look at it. Unfortunately I had not been recording the data I needed to check it out!
So just wondering if anyone had either an excel template or a list of the most important pieces of data that you should record?
Cheers in advance!
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@neil-mallett Yep I record the trading strike rate.
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@ryan-carruthers Surely you record the trading strategy hit rate anyway?
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@stuart-capstick Love it! If you want a second pair of eyes on it can always share it in the private coaching section and M & I will have a look.
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@ryan-carruthers
Thanks, Ryan. Been keeping records since November. Definitely looks profitable and stats tests suggest it isn't just variance.
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@stuart-capstick Thats a fair amount! @Martin-Futter likes a good number, I'd be happy with 300+ then I'd start to play around with it.
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@nhouse Whats the strike rate for the set up when trading?
So if the strike rate for a betting system is 53% does that increase to say 78% (example number) when trading?
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How many games (football) should I consider for determining if a strategy is profitable, as a general rule?
At present I have @350 games. -
Am I thinking about this correctly? Strike rate for a strategy is 53% so min odds to back = 100/53 = 1.88.
BUT if the strategy relies on trading out rather than letting it run e.g. a goal goes in - trade out now. Then I am making a mistake?
The odds are if I win the whole bet so obviously I win more than I lose when I lose. But trading out = lower return rather than the full win value.
Does this make sense??At all?
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@martin-futter Thanks! Going to figure some things out, hope to share my tests with you guys sometime soon
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@danny hi mate.
So from a mathematical perspective you would need to know how much you make on average when laying a draw and winning the trade, then comparing that with the 66% likelihood of a goal to work out the exact price.
So in the example you have given you want to make at last a 50% yield to break even per winning trade assuming you let the stake run, so 50 + 50 = 100, you win 2 times out of 3, so two wins of 50 = 100% of stake and one loss = -100% loss of stake. 100 - 100 = 0 (break even point).
Of course you would actually want a slightly higher yield due to commission 52%+ ideally per winning trade.
