How to select the games for the LTD
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Can't help but feel I'm doing something wrong. I was wondering if I am using the football software correctly on the website. At the moment the only strategy I am doing is the LTD at kickoff. What I have been doing is sticking to the English leagues and LTD of any game I can find where both teams have been in a maximum of 10% of their games which are 0-0. That way stats show there should be a goal either way which allow me to green up. I'm roughly getting a 50% success rate (18 games) at the moment which is obviously not sustainable as I will lose my money eventually this way. Should I be looking at teams who have been in 0-0s at half time rather than full time to get a better success rate for a first half goal and then cashing out? How do you guys all decide which games you will LTD at kick off? Literally any advice would be so welcomed as I'm not convinced I've quite sussed this strategy. Thanks in advance
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@jamie-wright-0 I do exactly what Martin said, split test it. Its the only way to know for sure.
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@jamie-wright-0 great work!
What I do in this situation is split test it, so on the one hand record results as if you had stuck to the original plan, then on the other hand record the results of the trades you actually make.
That's the only way you will find out the right thing to do in terms of what will be most profitable in the long run.
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@Ryan @Martin Alright lads, so a few questions for you. Or anyone else that sees this and can help out in fairness. My LTD strategy is doing reasonably well at the moment. Its currently at 91% success through approximately 35 games. A great foundation BUT......theres been a couple of trades where the favourite has scored first but because they are away from home I am not offered a profit until late in the game if it stays 0-1. Similarly to Ryans betgreen I will usually get out of the trade at 70 minutes if there is no goal. However whilst the away team is leading at 70 mins I stay in the trade as usually between 75-80 mins a profit is offered. May I ask what you guys would do in this situation? Would you trade out or wait for a profit? As if I wait I will win and I do not need a goal however if an equaliser is scored then it will be quite a loss with not much time to go. Because I am still learning I have left the trade to run until a 20% return is offered and then trade out. In the few times this has happened I have won each time but I can't help but feel at this point I am gambling? Is that normal? Finally would you put this down as a trade win or a loss? I have been putting down a win as I have taken profit each time but not in the way I planned to? Apologies for the essay here gents...
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@jamie-wright-0 Thats amazing, the thing for me is that with the software it's repeatable - everyday you can rinse and repeat, so you take some of the choices out of the equation.
Exact reason I shop in Aldi, go in less choice get it done - I don't need the choice of 100 yoghurts!
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@Ryan @Martin Almost wish I didn't post what I posted as since then I have played around with the software and come up with a strategy which allows me to trade on every league I'm able to. I didn't know how to use the filters etc. so I was manually looking for matches which worked hence why I kept it so simple. Using filters I had 100% success yesterday in the 8 games which I did so I am absolutely buzzing with the foundations I have set for the strategy. I'm not getting carried away I am just enjoying this journey as I start to understand it day by day more and more.
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@terry-heller Cheers Terry, you make a fair point mate nice one. I am literally just starting out on my journey how is your trading going?
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@richard-coxon Top man Richard, thanks for this I will have a look into and see how it fares over time.
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@ryan Hi Ryan, all that information is accessible on the software too isn't it?! I just need to keep learning the capabilities of what can be done with the software. As I explained to Martin on this thread I really haven't learnt what can be done wit it yet. I am trying and will keep playing around with it in order to master this LTD. But thank you mate what you have just told me will help me a lot with what I am trying to achieve.
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@martin Hey mate, apologies on the delayed response. Had a bit of a difficult start to this year so trading has taken a backwards step but I'm back on with things again as from today. So I was just trying to make it easier for myself with keeping up with it all as it is so new to me. I can see now looking at it that's not really a good idea. I just felt with the strategy I was using I was able to find at least 2 games in the English leagues which fitted so tried keeping it simple. I need to keep trying and testing until I find something I guess. I'm still learning the software too. Is there a video with a tutorial on the software and what it can do? Still feel there's so much information here (which is great) that I am finding a little difficult to come to terms with everything.
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@richard-coxon I'm with you there, decent tunes on and some good coffee and have at some data - can't beat it!
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If you go to the football-data.co.uk site you can get csv's of all the main leagues and test your theory over historic data, you don't really need massive spreadsheet skills, just get the current season data for which ever leagues and filter it, there are goal timings, HT home / Away W L D, odds and all sorts in them. Obviously, once the football software has back testing then all will be delightful - but I do enjoy whiling away a rainy afternoon messing with data and seeing if I can see anything interesting.
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having used the LTD for many many many years I might be able to add in something here as well, the other guys are both spot on with what they have added.
I think you need a little bit more than just the data you have started with, it's a great start but I think you need to know:
Which team is likely to score first
Which team is likely to concede firstI say this because this swings it massively in your favour, if its the underdog scoring first then this can cause havoc on your strategy as the draw price won't really move and leaves you exposed and waiting for a second goal from them.
If its the home team you will be laughing as the price will move.
It also helps you narrow the selections and know what to look for when watching it.
This can be found in the stats under 'Scored/Conceded' set it to Home / Away and then you can see this, as a general rule I like the fave to be 70% score first or more and then this matched with the underdog to concede first.
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@jamie-wright-0 expand your criteria a bit then test it.
So firstly why only test English leagues? You are massively reducing the games for your strategy, what’s that based on?
Have you checked what time goals are scored? How many games are having late goals?
Look for patterns in the data don’t get too fixed on one strategy plan, for example if you are finding games where 50% are draws then that would be highly profitable if you backed the draw!
Test test test, then test some more, until you are confident you have a strategy worth investing in.
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Hi Jamie
Relatively new here too so maybe not the best person to give advice but I do think that once you have an idea about a strategy that you would like to use even a 100 games of testing wont really give you a true reflection of the longterm strike rate of your idea and without that information you will not get an idea of viable odds that would make your strategy work.
