Mickes last try
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Hi all!
I was a member here two years ago, took a break and focused on swedish trotting, it has gone rather decent, but now I want to give the soccer a last chanse.First of all, Im from Sweden, and I know my english isnt that good, so sorry for that.
The main reason to start this thread is simple, its a way for me to stay focused. I know my weaknes when it comes to trading and the biggest one is that I trade on to many matches, see opportunities anywere and no thats not the way it works. And yes I chase losses from time to time... often when I hit a bad run.
Another reason why I took a break from here two years ago was that my bankroll I started with was to little. I start this journey with a 5k bankroll and its on the margin. Why? Well the 5k is in swedish kr... and thats just 396 bp, so if I do 10% profit each month it just cover the membership...
My plan for that is compunding and to fill my bankroll with new money every month if nessesary.
Where to start? Well I will start with 3 strategies. Every trade I use 2% of my bankroll. The strategies are:
1 My own O2,5 goal strategy, so far I have found 4 trades and my profit is 70 SEK
2 Ryans split stake. I have used a simular strategy so I feel comfortable with that one.
3 Lay the draw from start... Im not that sure about that one... but will give it a try.I will also look on the "set and forget" strategies and maybe follow one of theese, with a 1% stake...
For today I have 5 matches for my own strategy to look at and one on Ryans...
Feel free to give me your thoughts and let 2023 be a good year!
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https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/10397361-what-does-true-trading-discipline-actually-look-like
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/9476489-practical-ways-to-improve-your-discipline
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/10680889-you-will-look-back-on-losses-fondly
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/9510445-5000-dollar-loss-that-s-unfortunate
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/9413959-betfair-losses-how-pros-handle-losses
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The sad truth
Im not good at this, and thats the sad truth... but I will give it some more time... And after that I watched @Ryans vid today... I will change this blog in that way that I will tell you all about my trades... and maybe, just maybe that can help me to achive the diciplin I really need...because that is my biggest issue.
So... here we go.Trade no 1
Portsmouth-Bolton
Strategy: Second half goal
Bet 1 Over 1,5 goals @ 2,44 (25% of stake)
Bet 2 Over 1,5 goals in min 60, if there is no goal (25% of stake)
Bet 3 Over 0,5 goals @ 2 with 50% of stake
Why this trade: They match my criteria, a second half goal in 80% of the last 10 home/away games. 0-0 in halftime. Portsmouth have 9 shots first half, only 2 on target. Bolton have 6, just one on target. Both team have rather good form, Bolton have 13-2 goals in the last five games, Portsmouth 7-4Result: I had just placed the bet, got it matched and then did Bolton 0-1 (min 48) I cashed out for an equal profit and left the match...
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@andrew-bannister thanks! I checked soccerstat but it was down… will check again
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@mikael-nordstrom said in Mickes last try:
Stats?
11 days sinces I wrote something here... I took a break and used thoose days to watch videos, listen to poodcasts and just think... I landed in one strategy that I will continue with... heard that before?
I know that I have a long way to go to be succesfull in this, but the good part is that the problems I have sitting in my head... and when you know the problems you can work on them.By the way... I have looked around but I havnt found any good information... Do someone know or know where I can find good stats? Actually this time I want to know how many matches (%) is 0-0 at halftime? I know that its diffrent from country to country and division to division... for many years I got stats that said it was like 45% of the matches that had a first half goal... and that 5-10% ended 0-0... but I can be all wrong, especially about the first half goal.
For 5 days ago I started to trade again, and I start to recover from the "big" loss that this journey started with... I had a 24% loss of my bankroll... right now its down 18% so at least I see some light in the tunnel!
Stay green
I use soccerstats, for 0-0 ht and ft it has all the information you need on every league/country. In general the first half goal % is a lot higher than 45. Spain segunda is one of the lowest with about 52-53% fhg.
Hope this helps -
Stats?
11 days sinces I wrote something here... I took a break and used thoose days to watch videos, listen to poodcasts and just think... I landed in one strategy that I will continue with... heard that before? I know that I have a long way to go to be succesfull in this, but the good part is that the problems I have sitting in my head... and when you know the problems you can work on them.By the way... I have looked around but I havnt found any good information... Do someone know or know where I can find good stats? Actually this time I want to know how many matches (%) is 0-0 at halftime? I know that its diffrent from country to country and division to division... for many years I got stats that said it was like 45% of the matches that had a first half goal... and that 5-10% ended 0-0... but I can be all wrong, especially about the first half goal.
For 5 days ago I started to trade again, and I start to recover from the "big" loss that this journey started with... I had a 24% loss of my bankroll... right now its down 18% so at least I see some light in the tunnel!
Stay green
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Realy bad days
The weekend was realy bad, my goal strategies didnt deliver anything but losses and the bad results gives alot of bad thoughts... will take some days off and look through my sheets and see how to continue... any suggestions?! -
1 month...
My first month on this "last try" havnt started the way I hoped it should. I have lost allmost 5% of my bankroll, but the positive thing is that the biggest loss was in the beginning and the last two weeks is profitable.The last two weeks I have just used two strategies and they work ok, maybe is the filters rather hard, they dont give so much matches to trade so the result moves slowely
My biggest issue is dicipline, when I dont get "enough" matches to trade I have picked a few matches from the livestats... some have been sucessfull, but more of them have been loosing ones.
I will continue with my two strategies in february, and hopfully I can keep my diciplin better... and I will start to try a third strategy with minimum stakes. I will not do anything with my bankroll, I have split the bankroll in three part, one part on Betfair, one in a savingsaccount and the last part in a fundaccount. I will not use the bankroll to pay the membership, I will see that fee like a learning fee...
Stay green all...
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Yesterday was a good day but...
5 of 6 trades were profitable yesterday and the day gave a nice profit. Slowley I start to recover from my bad start so that feels good.A problem I must solve is time. Its not that easy to get time for trading between family and all the things you have to do. I realize that I must look for "set and forget-strategies" or automations in the future. But it will be a later problem, first goal is to be profitable with the strategies I have now... then I solve the timeproblem.
Only one match that match my criterias tonight and that from one of my strategies that I use small stake, so it will not be so much change in my bankroll tonight...
Stay green all...
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3/4...
That was the result of yesterdays efforts. 2/3 on my O2,5 goal strategy and that one feels stable. It will ofcourse have ups and downs, but the feeling is that I will make some money in the long run as long as I keep my discipline.The two other strategies that I running, well... I belive in both, but I think the filter is a little bit rough. A strategy with to few matches is hard to analyse. They have both odds-criterias and I will try to changes them with a tick or two to get a better balance.
Todays shortlist for O2,5 goal
Turkey Super Lig 14:00:00 Kayserispor - Besiktas
Netherlands Eredivisie 14:30:00 Feyenoord - Ajax
Netherlands Eredivisie 14:30:00 Twente - Utrecht
Germany Bundesliga 15:30:00 Dortmund - FC Augsburg
Spain Laliga 16:15:00 Elche - Osasuna
Germany Bundesliga 17:30:00 B. Monchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen
Italy Serie A 18:00:00 Spezia - AS RomaMy biggest issue right now is patient. I want to run this three strategies until the end off february before I go further with more strategies. At the same time some of my brain screams "go for that one and that one as well..." I think this is the hardest part for everyone who wants a second income frome trading. Everyone wants a good start and good money as fast as possible. I think the hardest part is to be satified with a return on 5-10% after a day with trading, especially if you start with a little bankroll...
Stay green all...
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Filter vs Value...
Its easy to just follow your profitable filter, and sure if your filter is 100% profitable why not... But yesterday I got another reminder, always think if there is any value before you start a trade.My main strategy (filter), the one that I use full stake on (2% of my bankroll) gave me four matches yesterday and I could only trade two of them. Both gave a profit but here is the thing. The second match was Leipzig-Bayern.
The strategy work like this. I back O2,5 goal in min 15 with half of my stake and the other half at min 25. If there is a goal I take the profit and leave. If there is 0-0 at halftime I take the loss and leave.
Its a very simple filter. I look for matches there it have been 0-0 maximun 2 times in halftime (scope last 10 games) and I want 20+ goals in first half as well. So thats my only two criteria.Well, back to the match last night. It was 0-0 in min 15 and I logged in on Betfair to place my first bet... and the odds for O2,5 goals were 1,68. In this point all the value were on the unders! Two teams that are in the top of the league, the underdog play at home and so on... So what I should have done, just leave the match... What I did, I placed a bet O2,5 goals @ 1,80 with half of my stake and the rest in min 25 @ 2,3. A goal came in min 31... but VAR-no goal... 0-1 came in min 37 and I could take a profit, but a small one just because the odds dropped just under 1,7. So that strategy in that oddsrange givs to little back (risk/reward)
The other two strategies I testing have a odds-criteria, that "secure" the value, the other side of the coin is that the shortlist changes from time to time...
We gonna celebrate my kids today, they turned 16 last week... how can that happend, I still so young!
So will see if there is any time for trading...Stay green all!
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A week in green
It have not been so many matches to trade the last seven days, l have done 10 trades so far and only 3 with my main strategy... But I have a positive result after this 10 trades. Its just a small one, but its just my main strategy that I use my 2% stake, in the other two strategies I just use minimum stakes so the result can only be small.The most important thing after theese seven days is that my mindset have changed. The strategies I using, working on, is strategies that is "mine" in that way that I belive in them. The strikerate that you must achive to get a positive result feels ok, its not a big mountain that can be erased of a couple of loosing trades. The filters and the rules are simple to follow and dont give me so much space to stay in to long in a trade.
I will continue work on the filters... I want a little more matches on my shortlist, not many but a few more each week. And I will do my filter better so I dont get matches from all countries/divisions... The strategies needs decent money so the odds follow the normal and so I can trade out when I suppose to trade out and to the odds that I should get...
Today I only got 4 matches in my shortlist, but I dont know yet if I can trade them because of family business so we will see...
Stay green all
