2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon You have a gift my friend
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Another value pick for today, I think Anderson looks over priced at 2.48 against Nishikori for the following reasons:
The ELO model I check has him at 2.08
The H2H on indoor hard is 2-2
They have played each other in the last 2 tournaments (Paris and Vienna) with a straight sets win a piece.
Although Nishikori beat Federer on Sunday, he looked unconvincing in doing so, 1st serve %age was in the mid 50’s. Federer just never took advantage of this.
Anderson is having the season of his career, and is in good form winning 7 of his last 8.Reasons to be cautious:
Nishikori is the class player here, and if Anderson’s serve isn’t firing he will cause him plenty of problems.
His confidence will be high after beating Fed.
He seems to be finding his form at the back end of the season after recovering from a wrist injury at the end of last season.Going to watch the opening exchanges and look for Anderson to be holding comfortably before getting involved. I expect this to be a tight affair, it’s more a play on the odds as I think 2.48 looks too big.
outstanding shout!
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got it, thanks.
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@radu-cuvsinov it’s when someone wins a set 6-0
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@ryan-carruthers the double bagel is on
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What's a bagel ?
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@simon Love a bagel!!
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And there’s the bagel! Didn’t see that coming!!
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Another value pick for today, I think Anderson looks over priced at 2.48 against Nishikori for the following reasons:
The ELO model I check has him at 2.08
The H2H on indoor hard is 2-2
They have played each other in the last 2 tournaments (Paris and Vienna) with a straight sets win a piece.
Although Nishikori beat Federer on Sunday, he looked unconvincing in doing so, 1st serve %age was in the mid 50’s. Federer just never took advantage of this.
Anderson is having the season of his career, and is in good form winning 7 of his last 8.Reasons to be cautious:
Nishikori is the class player here, and if Anderson’s serve isn’t firing he will cause him plenty of problems.
His confidence will be high after beating Fed.
He seems to be finding his form at the back end of the season after recovering from a wrist injury at the end of last season.Going to watch the opening exchanges and look for Anderson to be holding comfortably before getting involved. I expect this to be a tight affair, it’s more a play on the odds as I think 2.48 looks too big.
Well Anderson has come storming out the blocks. 5-0 up in the first so unfortunately no trade for me. Annoying when that happens, but better to watch the opening exchanges to protect the bank. Had I got involved with Zverev pre match yesterday I would have found myself in a bad position when he went a break down early, so it’s swings and roundabouts.
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@simon defo something to monitor that - can trade out just before it starts then you have some profit to play with
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@ryan-carruthers yeah should have had a wee pre match trade on this one too. Same happened yesterday with Zverev, he came in 10 ticks at one point.
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@simon Seems the market agrees as well have you seen the price come in?
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@simon very nice right up and I agree with all of this as well!
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Another value pick for today, I think Anderson looks over priced at 2.48 against Nishikori for the following reasons:
The ELO model I check has him at 2.08
The H2H on indoor hard is 2-2
They have played each other in the last 2 tournaments (Paris and Vienna) with a straight sets win a piece.
Although Nishikori beat Federer on Sunday, he looked unconvincing in doing so, 1st serve %age was in the mid 50’s. Federer just never took advantage of this.
Anderson is having the season of his career, and is in good form winning 7 of his last 8.Reasons to be cautious:
Nishikori is the class player here, and if Anderson’s serve isn’t firing he will cause him plenty of problems.
His confidence will be high after beating Fed.
He seems to be finding his form at the back end of the season after recovering from a wrist injury at the end of last season.Going to watch the opening exchanges and look for Anderson to be holding comfortably before getting involved. I expect this to be a tight affair, it’s more a play on the odds as I think 2.48 looks too big.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Like the look of Zverev for a value pick today, currently available at 1.94. For the following reasons
An ELO model I check has him at 1.72.
He has a 5-1 H2H record against Cilic.
Cilic has an extremely poor record at the ATP finals (won 1 in 9)
Cilic’s recent form and Inability to close out matches
Cilic has lost 4 of last 5 when rated as the under dog
Zverev has won 6 in a row when priced as favourite.
Since 2012, underdogs have only won 22% of matches at the tour finals.Reasons to be cautious
Possible fatigue and injury. Zverev was complaining about his shoulder and the ATP calendar after his defeat in Paris.
Cilic could be more motivated with Davis Cup final still to come.Going to watch the opening exchanges looking for signs of motivation and fatigue from Zverev before getting involved.
Winning trade. Backed Zverev at 2.74 during game 3 at 0-2 down. He hit a couple of crisp winners in this game and looked a bit more pumped up. I also have in my notes that he is a fighter and good at comebacks when down, and that Cilic is mentally fragile. Greened up when he broke back at 1.84. 0.59 pts profit.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Like the look of Zverev for a value pick today, currently available at 1.94. For the following reasons
An ELO model I check has him at 1.72.
He has a 5-1 H2H record against Cilic.
Cilic has an extremely poor record at the ATP finals (won 1 in 9)
Cilic’s recent form and Inability to close out matches
Cilic has lost 4 of last 5 when rated as the under dog
Zverev has won 6 in a row when priced as favourite.
Since 2012, underdogs have only won 22% of matches at the tour finals.Reasons to be cautious
Possible fatigue and injury. Zverev was complaining about his shoulder and the ATP calendar after his defeat in Paris.
Cilic could be more motivated with Davis Cup final still to come.Going to watch the opening exchanges looking for signs of motivation and fatigue from Zverev before getting involved.
Nice write up, thanks!
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Like the look of Zverev for a value pick today, currently available at 1.94. For the following reasons
An ELO model I check has him at 1.72.
He has a 5-1 H2H record against Cilic.
Cilic has an extremely poor record at the ATP finals (won 1 in 9)
Cilic’s recent form and Inability to close out matches
Cilic has lost 4 of last 5 when rated as the under dog
Zverev has won 6 in a row when priced as favourite.
Since 2012, underdogs have only won 22% of matches at the tour finals.Reasons to be cautious
Possible fatigue and injury. Zverev was complaining about his shoulder and the ATP calendar after his defeat in Paris.
Cilic could be more motivated with Davis Cup final still to come.Going to watch the opening exchanges looking for signs of motivation and fatigue from Zverev before getting involved.
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@martin-futter agreed, he looks unstoppable at the moment!
