Jonathan's Journey
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So this is my attempt at a journal to track my journey. More so for me to keep check with my wins and mistakes along the way but also hopefully inspire or help someone else with the thought processes and general ups and downs. I think this will be more of a journal trying to unload my thoughts and feelings along the way rather then just me trying out new strategies etc.
My current setup is bf bot manager on a vps and my idea is to set up all of the set and forgets on it and import them daily. I've got a bit of experience using the software so I'm confident in doing that plus I know other members have created bots to make this easier so I'm happy with that. My thought process at this point is a 2 step approach, the first using the set and forget members strategies and uploading them daily and just letting them do their thing. I will set them to 3% of my bank roll and just monitor them. All of you guys have done the hard work so why change anything!. This will be my backbone and hopefully will grow my bank steadily month in and out.
My second approach is doing my own trading. I have setup the software to give me dome different stats that I can trade in play if the opportunity comes. This is the part I really love. Finding that edge and having the stats infront if me to give me confidence. I will share what angles I'm looking at in the coming days when I get time. I will also ve using 5% if my bankroll for these as I will be doing them manually and trading out always so I can risk a little bit more.
I am only using a small.bank roll of £50. That's not a lot to some i know and might sound pointless but I've blown a few banks and I want to prove to myself that I cam be consistent on small stakes and grow gradually.
I will Try and put up daily feedback on some of the trades I've done and my thoughts about why I went in and any pros and cons so i can look back and learn from myself over time.
So thats the journey. Let's begin ......
Strategy tracking sheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10X7SuHwC1UGOVxRFihi1OAgFU3UDOV6zLyk57XUASSo/edit?usp=drivesdk -
@jonathan-batten said in Jonathan's Journey:
BIG UPDATE
I just had a look on my betfair P & L and i have reached my first big milestone of a profitable week!!!
12.53 Pts Up to £1 Stakes.
So So Happy that things are going in the right direction. All done through placing my daily filter selections and some careful in play trading.
I couldn't have got here without this community and the software.
On to the next Goal and that profitable first month.
this is a great start mate, really promising!
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BIG UPDATE
I just had a look on my betfair P & L and i have reached my first big milestone of a profitable week!!!
12.53 Pts Up to £1 Stakes.
So So Happy that things are going in the right direction. All done through placing my daily filter selections and some careful in play trading.
I couldn't have got here without this community and the software.
On to the next Goal and that profitable first month.
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Jan 27th
Been a busy week trying to work on a few other projects alongside my trading.
The Lay the Away Team filter is still doing really well. So far this week its up 5.02pts with 8 out of 10 winners with an overall strike rate of 89.72% and ROI of 55.45%
It's longest losing run is still only 1 game.
I have started using real money and 1% stakes as its hit over 100 games and i'm comfortable with that.
The highest Odds it's had is 5.75 which is roughly 82% strike rate but the avg odds per game are only 3.41 so it is still over performing. and Coming to the end of its first month its hit nearly 60pts So I am really happy. Hopefully this is a continued trend.
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Jan 25th
I have started to try and improve my inplay match reading skills so I thought It would be good for me to document some of the trades I'm doing and the why's.
I am still taking the approach of focusing on strong home teams as they should in theory dictate the play. I will be using BTC to give me the list of home teams over 2 PPG and then looking at goal angles and best entry times. Probably half time to give me time to see if what's happening matches the stat's
My main focus game last night was Bayern Vs Koln. I originally planned to go for a first half lay the draw as Bayern look really strong on stats.
Koln scored in the first 5 mins so that was unexpected. Bayern looked like they were getting straight back in to it so i went for over 1.5 goals first half at around 1.8. ended up with no more goals first half.
Bayern were still controlling the game at half time so i backed double chance home or draw as I couldnt see Koln winning. I backed over 1.5 at 1.26 at the stats said over 1.5 goals came in 100% for these 2 which I thought gave great value. I thought there might be a quick equaliser second half so i went in on over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with the plan to hedge out.
The game got to 80 mins and still no goal but it looked like Bayern were going to score so i went in again on over 1.5 at odds of 2.72.
Bayern scored in the 90th min and the game ended 1-1 so good result on the over 1.5 angle and laying Koln.
Key Take Aways
Went in too soon in the first half. Perhaps waiting till half time to assess is better. Also going on the over 2.5 goals didnt work out so perhaps just sitting and waiting in the second half and focusing on the next goal market for a value price is a more sensible play.
I was happy that I got it right on laying Koln and going in later again on the over 1.5 goals. Still made a small profit over all.
Also had 2 out of 2 winners on the set and forget away teams lays so a fun night really with lessons learnt.
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Jan 23rd
Amazing weekend for the filter. It's almost at the 100 selection mark in 16 days and its still performing better then I had imagined.
There were 16 selections yesterday and 14 winners which gave a further 10.6pts profit.
Running total overall is 54.31pts
I think I will stop posting daily updates for it now as its probably getting a little boring and just do a summary at the end of the month. all the data is tracked in my shared sheet and the filter is shared if anyone wants it.
Whilst its ticking along I am going to continue tracking a couple more strategies.
I took the plunge and got Bet Angel for a month so I can use soccer mystic to play around with inplay predicted odds. I am hoping it has given me a good angle for trading under 3.5 goals first 15 mins with a similar loss or profit so the theory is if I can find the right selections more then 50% of the time it should be profitable.
I will deep dive more in the next few days.
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Jan 21st
Brilliant Day on the away filter. 10 winners out of 13 and another 7.33pts added taking the total to 43.71 pts.
Also a side note I've been testing a lay the draw from the start strategy since yesterday which I backtested and was profitable. Just tracked the games today and would be up 26.4pts in a day.
Very interesting to see how that continues. I'm tracking it in the spreadsheet I've shared.
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@jonathan-batten said in Jonathan's Journey:
@Martin It's only from joining BTC and following the advice of all of you guys here that has got me this far. Best investment I have ever made so thankyou. I am loving the journey!!
That’s so good to hear! We love having you here
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@Martin It's only from joining BTC and following the advice of all of you guys here that has got me this far. Best investment I have ever made so thankyou. I am loving the journey!!
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Jan 21st
8 out of 10 winners last night in the end. +2.5pts added to the running total.
3 Weeks Running
68 Selections
53.50% ROI
92.65% Strike Rate
Total Points 36.38Ive exported it so I dont lose it. Thought I would share it here in case it's useful to anyone.
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Jan 20th
Things are really starting to feel like they are falling into place bit by bit.
I feel like my whole way of looking at trading has changed now for the better. I don't worry about individual trades as I have become strict with my bank management and only do max 3% per trade so to be honest I don't really notice the ups and downs of a day when I look at my Betfair balance which is a great feeling.
The most pleasure I seem to be getting from the process is actually tracking the ideas / systems and playing the real game of beating the market. I am still very much focused on learning the skills inside and out as opposed to just trying to win money.
I have a good daily routine and it seems to be working well. I have the trading strategies setup of BF Bot Manager and the set and forgets i login and place manually. Easy Peasy.
The PPG strategy seems to be going well still. Had a winner this morning with the Aussie game so that's a good start to the weekend. It will be good to see how this weekend pans out as last weekend was really good. hopefully the upwards trend continues. I have done some form of back testing on it and it seems profitable over 300 games so I'm hoping that continues with forward testing.
I have binned off the under 2.5 goals as rough back testing 300 games put it in a big loss.
I think my focus going forward will be looking more into Team PPG and looking at different markets and angles.
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Jan 18th
2 Israel Games yesterday on the away lays. 1 winner 1 loser. -1.5pts. 1 selection today which is the hearts game.
I binned off the automated lay the draw bot as it was only using inplay stats and i am quickly finding that without some form of pregame stat to back it up i just dont think its viable long term. difficult to track aswell as i dont know what games it is going to pick.
I have however setup a variation of Ryans split stake over 1.5 goals strategy on BF Bot Manager but ive used a basic filter in BTC of games with avg of 3 or more goals. purely based on this you would expect 1 goal in most matches in the long run and i noticed with Ryan's strategy that several games are getting early goals before the 30 mins so I have changed it to a 3 way split stake. 1st stake at 10 mins, then 30mins and the last at 50 mins. that gives a big window to cover the goal.
Obviously the earlier the goal the better the profit but what ive noticed is even if there is a goal in the second half window it will give a small profit or a small loss which is good.
Will be interesting to see how this one continues. Im hoping it will become a low risk slow burner just trickling in lots of small wins.
currently hitting around 7% ROI after 18 selections and testing with small 30p stakes as its easier to track inplay trades this way for me as i can see the trade out odds.
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Jan 16th
Another solid day yesterday. The best results for the weekend for me were laying PSG and man City both at odds on based on the away teams filter.
It hit 7/8 winners yesterday adding another 5pts bringing the running totals to
Since 7th Jan
Ttl points 34.38
ROI 62.51%
Strike Rate 92.73%Still loving this filter and it's only thanks to the knowledge and training from BTC that I came across it.
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@jon-batten said in Jonathan's Journey:
Jan 15th
Fantastic day on the away team lay filter.
11.4pts added. 16 selections and 14 winners.Highest odds so far around 5.5 which converts to 82% strike rate but its hitting 93% currently after 48 games. Longest winning run 24 games and only 1 losing game streak.
I'm really liking this filter. It.seems to tick a lot of boxes. Great strike rate giving value. Reasonable odds and a good amount of selections. Also ROI currently sitting at 63%.
The under 2.5 had 2 winners out of 3 adding 2.6 pts to the 20.7pts total. Still hitting a massive roi but I'm waiting for the downswing when the leagues get fired up.
great stuff so far, following this with interest!
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Jan 15th
Fantastic day on the away team lay filter.
11.4pts added. 16 selections and 14 winners.Highest odds so far around 5.5 which converts to 82% strike rate but its hitting 93% currently after 48 games. Longest winning run 24 games and only 1 losing game streak.
I'm really liking this filter. It.seems to tick a lot of boxes. Great strike rate giving value. Reasonable odds and a good amount of selections. Also ROI currently sitting at 63%.
The under 2.5 had 2 winners out of 3 adding 2.6 pts to the 20.7pts total. Still hitting a massive roi but I'm waiting for the downswing when the leagues get fired up.
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Jan 14th
Great Day yesterday. For the first time I felt like i was organised and starting to get a daily routine with setting up the selections for the day. All of the BTC Members where setup in BF Bot Manager and I'm getting into a good routine with the tracking spreadsheet.
Had a great day results wise also. The automated half time bot was firing well again and since everything has been setup i've started to see several consistent profitable days.
The under 2,5 filter had one game which was close but 2 late goals for that 1 killed it but my lay the away team had 6 out of 6 so that's doing really well. Still holding at 96% strike rate and 18.98pts in 7 days.
Its taken a while to get myself in the right head space with trading but now I have everything setup and i keep it all to roughly 2% stakes I have finally ditched the mentality of trying to get money coming in quick and have switched to just aiming to be consistent and I love it. If I get this right then its a life skill I can use to make as much money as i need to in time.
Busy morning with lots of selections to get in then I'm off to enjoy the rest of the day with my son.
