CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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@chris-watts with you on Juve of course anything can happen and Utd could win but statistically Utd look like fish out of water here. 1.24 draw no bet looks good too but obviously less winnings or a lot more liability at risk depending on how you do it!
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With not much hitting my filters today I thought i'd share some of the podcasts i've been listening to recently:
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The Business of Betting Podcast - some great guests on this covering a range of sports and all manner of different ways that people participate in the markets. I particularly enjoyed the Harry Findlay episode (his book is also a good read).
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The Betting Guy (Dean Booty) this fella is a bit nuts, he used to own a betting shop and now does some content for Betfair via his podcast. Some good guests, not overly technical to follow and his style is a bit quirky but a relatively easy listen and worthwhile to get some perspective on the ideas of others.
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Inside Betting (Matthew Trenhaile) I heard of this guy from the business of betting podcast, he was a guest on one of the episodes and then started his own podcast, very technical, very intelligent discussion on the betting industry in general as well as facets within it like exchanges, premium charging, quantum modelling, has the odd guest on too.
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Pinnacle Podcast - they dont pump out a lot of content but the episode with Marco Blume, Pinnacle's trading director is worth a listen.
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And of course last but by no means least.... BTC! I have listened to every one of these going back to the one with @Luke-Ridger about chasing losses in Jan 2016. Many of them I've listened to on multiple occasions. Greed the enemy of traders is an episode that i put on in the car frequently to really drum the message into my head! (I must be a slow learner!)
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Watch List/Trading Plan - 07/11/18:
The only games hitting my filters today are from poor leagues where the liquidity is likely to be weak and the games are hard to watch so no trades advised.
I do however agree with @Martin-Futter on the Juve price in todays champions league game versus United. Juve havent lost a champions league group game at home since 2009. They currently sit top of the group after winning the first three games and havent even conceded a single goal. They totally outclassed United a couple of weeks ago in Manchester and I'm surprised to see them available at 1.7. They do have a couple of injuries but a front three of Dybala, Ronaldo and Mandzukic are more than capable of giving the shaky united defense a hard time. United have been slow starters in recent games and if they give this Juve team the same opportunities afforded to Bournemouth and Newcastle then they could be in serious trouble.
1.7 on Juve is almost attractive enough for me to want to go in a little earlier than my usual pattern of watching the first 20mins.....but not quite. I will be watching though and looking for opportunities to side with Juve if the match action supports doing so.
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@martin-futter said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
@chris-watts maybe put total +1.6 points as it looks like minus! great work though
Good point well raised, thanks Martin.
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@chris-watts maybe put total +1.6 points as it looks like minus! great work though
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Results - 06/11/18
Inplay - 1.5points following a successful LTD in the Barca game and an unsuccessful lay of Belgrade in the Liverpool game.
Watch List Trades - Walsall v Charlton, 0-1 at halftime but the second goal on 51 mins was too early for me as id planned to enter around 60mins. No trade.
Unders Scalping - scalped 1.55 down to 1.2 in the first half. 0.10 points profit.
Total +1.6 points.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - the draw is becoming very layable in the Barcelona match.
Result - Barca take the lead on 83 mins, 2 point profit.
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Inplay - the draw is becoming very layable in the Barcelona match.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - 1 point lay of Belgrade (against Liverpool). Would expect odds to shoot out to 3ish or more if they can get one back with a reasonable amount of time left. Stop loss at 75 mins.
Stop loss triggered, trade lost, - 0.5 points.
This is the sort of trade I’d take time and time again though, across the season laying weak leaders late in the game yields very decent returns.
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Inplay - 1 point lay of Belgrade (against Liverpool). Would expect odds to shoot out to 3ish or more if they can get one back with a reasonable amount of time left. Stop loss at 75 mins.
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 06/11/18
SHG/LTD:
Walsall v Charlton (England, League one, 19:45pm)
A combined average of 3.43 goals this season with 1.86 of them coming in the second half. Note this is against same opposition type and only 7 games. Extending out to last season and 40 games and the stats are similar and 3.15 average goals and 1.63 in H2. Will be keeping an eye on this game and looking to get involved around 60 mins if the score is 0-0,0-1,1-0 or 1-1. As always this will also depend on the match action at the time. Would want to see Andy Cook on the team sheet for the home side and Karlan Ahearne-Grant for the away side.
Unders Scalping:
Gillingham v Blackpool (England, League one, 19:45pm)
High percentages of unders and both teams failing to score so ill be looking for opportunities to get in and out following goals or flat periods in the game. Only 7% of their combined goals are scored between 20th and 50th minute so if the play supports this could be a good entry. Unders currently trading at 1.88 but I have it nearer 1.6
