My Journey - From Novice to Pro - 2023

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My Journey - From Novice to Pro - 2023

Well, Ryan is spot on with his three beginner videos with priceless advice.
But I will hack BTC anyway to be self-funded before I start with my one trading method and move forward.

In the strategy section, you have proven methods with a positive return on investment and tipping services take 40 to 50 Euro for their tips and here I get several for 50 Euro a month (that is one way to look at things).

So the first thing I will do (today) is to deposit 500 Euro to Betfair and start using Ryan's Split Stake and I assume getting anything from 3% or above on my investment - where the monthly profits will reduce my fee for BTC or make it vanish.

The next step is to use diversification and add one more method from the strategy section - Gary's SHG - with another 500 Euro bank.
Now the monthly profit will be larger and I can upgrade my BTC account to premium and still make my membership self-funded.

Now I can concentrate on my one trading strategie without losing money and be self-funded and I assume you need to have time to place bets during day time for this to work.

This is my first move ...

Cheers Sputnik

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@patrik-mellqvist ,,...you send so many mixed messages, but surely to work on your own strategy this is the best place to be, with all the resources at hand?
Each to their own but you really do blow hot and cold fella!

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Hello all ...

Today I made some reflection and assume I have a winning method.
I change one parameter in my spreadsheet for my selection for my method and the majority of losing trades vanish and turn the selection with a winning strike ratio.

So I will strongly advise that manually making an Excel spreadsheet with the numbers for the parameters can change a selection filter from negative to positive.
When exploring and backtracking different patterns.

I decide to take a break from BTC and return when I achieved a monthly profit of £50 monthly to make the subscription free.
I considering using Martins O1,5 with £1000 bankroll and staking 2% to get a free monthly subscription.
But I want to stand on my own with my own strategy and my own filter.

So I will get back to when I am ready and then I will buy an annual subscription.

Cheers

Martin

@patrik-mellqvist love the to do list! I need to start having some of these!

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To do before January.

Complete the last weekend of my spreadsheet filter.
Simulate Ryan's Split and my own strategy and compare.
Decide which one is best to use

To do January.

Start daily trading with my Strategy

Will be continued ... EDIT done with the filter testing for January 2022
29 games with Europen B Leagues

With 80 min stop loss 24 wins and 5 loses
With 70 min stop loss 22 wins and 7 loses

Will simulate

Maybe i use Ryan Split and track my own on paper

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alt text

Test to post image.
My filter with a 90% strike rate using my strategy for O1.5 market.
Start trading January with my new filter using the stats-software.

Cheers

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Today I made some decision making moving forward with my trading plan.

I feel that a 10-unit increase or decrease will protect my bank.
And I feel conservative when making this decision.

I will increase and decrease my bankroll every 10% win or loss.
My starting (learning bank) will be £1000.

My one strategy will be Ryan's Split staking 1% of my bankroll.
If I profit £100 I will stake £11 and if I lose £100 I will stake £9.

After taking some wins and losses and sticking to the plan I will make some reflections and decision-making about my progress in month one or two.

Cheers

Martin

@patrik-mellqvist great news, I love it when people really commit and give themselves a good length of time to get good at trading!

I am following with interest, keep us updated on your progress

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Now I have a feel for the forum and the functionality, so I have cancelled my monthly subscription and will buy an Annual subscription and save 10 Euro a month.
Is worth every penny

Also, have one year free from work to spend full-time trading and try to become a pro.

And I stick to my one strategy O1,5 trying to develop my own filter.
Did wrong using the past five matches when collecting data and the results become skewed, my mistake?
So now I do it all over again and hopefully correct it

Cheers Patrik

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Thanks, Karl & Martin ...

The thing is that I have good news for myself, as Ryan mentioned, go back and check the stats and data.

I took all results above 80 min mark and all draws, 0-0 and check them in detail.
Using both teams to score and use all the ten past results for checking O1,5.
I miss that I could do that with Soocerway and have been using the past five which is not accurate.

I reduce seven losing trades into only two losing trades.
So now I can run the simulation again and hope to green up or at least reduce the overall losses significantly.

Cheers

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@patrik-mellqvist ...The strategies from others are there to use or doctor as you see fit.
I am currently using Martin O1.5 in unison with my own own over 1.5, it gives very few bets but at the minute it is proving pretty good.
The idea is you use others brains, experience and knowledge to make your own strategies the best they can be!!

Martin

@patrik-mellqvist do what works for you, Ryan’s advice is guidance not law

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Hello all ...

I know Ryan says that we shall stick to one method only and now I pick Over 1.5 that I thought would be manageable.
I want to change my method and use another strategy, but then I am not sticking to the rules Ryan set up.

Have other members changed their method after picking the main strategy to crack?
I mean I can not be the only one finding it difficult.

Reflection I can copy Ryan's Split O1,5 and start trading and after experience grow with the stats software and filters I can experiment to tweak or come up with my own strategy.
Is a saying why invent something new when there already is an existing working method?

The learning curve is a process.

There are limits to what you can do with free sites like Betexplore & Soocerway.
The upside is that you can track and test without losing real money.

EDIT - look at Martins's for both teams to score and could see the line BTTS so now I know one more filter to apply and test.
I think I will message the creator of the software and ask him to explain the filter for the Split O1,5 ... because I don't want to use a strategy if I don't fully understand the mechanism making it work, the filter, the selection, the secret sauce

Cheers

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Yes I understand, maybe between the 5 or 6 mark and above

I start to grasp other filters and criterium using Betexplorer

amount played matches in relation to how many end up over 1.5 and how many end up below 1.5 also the same for over 2,5

average goals per match as a summary for one particular team

that is three filters or criterium, I might add them as I can see Martin is using
that kind of stat into his filters

Martin

@patrik-mellqvist 80% is very high for over 2.5 goals you may want to lower that a bit as you won’t get many games and the games you do get odds will be very short!

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Thanks, Martin.
I look at the filter and will show you how I understand and comprehend the filters.

Criteria 1

Overall scored goals per match "average"

with the following values for each game

4.1
3.5
3
3.38

I assume that is the final full-time score average for played games

Criteria 2

Overall scored goals per match H2 "average"

I assume H2 stand for H2H with the following values for each game

2,45
1,81
1,85
1,56

I assume this is the final full-time score for H2H average over 1.5 per match

Criteria 3

Home scored by FT %

I assume this stand for the percentage home team scored by full time and it has to be over 1.5 goals

90
100
90
100

Criteria 4

Away scored by FT %

I assume this stand for the percentage away team scored by full time and it has to be over 1.5 goals

100
100
70
88

Criteria 5

Over 1.5 %

this I understand is the amount over 1.5 goals

90
94
80
94

Criteria 6

Over 2.5 %

this I understand is the amount over 2.5 goals

85
81
80
50

Criteria 7

Ov FT BTTS %

have no clue what this filter is and what it does

60
75
55
59

Criteria 8

H2 Over 1.5 %

I assume H2H over 1.5 goals percentage

75
63
65
50

Criteria 9

Ov Matched played

I assume overall matches played

20
20
16

I am listening to you Martin so I will skip the odds criteria that I have been using for both the home and away teams from 1.48 and upward.
The reason I did this was that I wanted two evenly-matched teams with not having a very strong favourite on either side.

So now I will collect new data using Soocerway and Betexplorer as I need to check forms and stats manually to get candidates to put into my simulation software.
The good news is that I am not losing any money on hunches.

So now I need to play around with what I can do or what parameters I can use to get my candidates.
I can check the Over 1,5 goals percentage and check the Over 2.5 goals percentage.
And the H2H results.
And avoid games that have a draw among the past matches.

That are the three variables I can come up with at the moment that also can be done manually using Soocerway and Betexplorer?
I will test using the H2H and then backtrack results to reduce candidates.

With the data, I have now succeeded to remove all losing trades down to two.
When I set the mark for 80% Over 2.5 goals.
The downside was that there were not many playable games left.

Martin

@patrik-mellqvist his filter is here if you want to have a look at the parameters: 0_1670569716266_filter-settings(15).txt

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Hello ...

Here is the link to the results PDF
https://1drv.ms/b/s!AtKN4lBrJStLgY1rEpqNohm_G4ke3A?e=ZatLsh

Here is a image
https://imgur.com/oz5rXsS

My filter is over 80% for over 1.5 and no 0-0 maybe the filter is to simple
I notice I only got two losses if using over 2.5 goals with 80% maybe I test that variant.
Wonder what else to add to the filter, reflecting.

Thanks for the Martin strategy, I can just not understand what parameters he is using with his filter.

Martin

@patrik-mellqvist

Martin's Over 1.5 goals is 81% win rate at the moment. You can check the sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=750891399

Rules are very simple, back over 1.5 goals before kick off at odds between 1.25-1.35. Obviously there will not be many seletions until the World Cup has finished.

As regards your own strategy could you give some more information, how were you selecting games to trade?

Is it just purely based on odds? As I don't think this would work well, as that's just random selections with no edge.

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Hello all...
I look at Martins's Over 1.5 goals filter but could not fully understand all the rules.
Could see O1.5 with above 70%

Both Ryan's and my own strategy end up in the red, but I am sure Ryan's strategy works long-term using his own selection.
Deep into the red zone after 35 trades and can not see how my selection would turn things around into the green, no matter the tweaks, at this moment.

I start at odds 1.4 and make four splits.
This cover the splits up to 80 min mark, this part works great.

a) The selection I have been using is O1.5 with 80% or above.
b) No 0-0
c) Home and Away odds minimum 1.48
d) O2.5 at 2.00 or below.

This setup is not working.
So at the moment I am stuck and don't know how to move forward.

One thing I have in mind, but I hesitate about it being a game changer.
Is to pick games with O2,5 with 80% or above and see if there are more winning candidates.
Or check that at least 80% or above have been having goals between 20 to 80 min mark.

I will upload the stats for test a and test b into a PDF to download.
Today, still making the last trades.

Cheers Patrik