The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Nick Allan

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@philip-brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Martin's Back the Favourite 3.0

Very interesting Philip, looks very solid, I've done a deep dive and there's no real day of the week that's poor, the drawdowns are acceptable, if you look at the last six months in particular results have been very strong. Can I ask are you currently testing this strategy? and what kind of results are you getting? are they similar to the results that you're getting with the software? I take it the premise behind the strategy is exactly the same as the first Martin backed the favourite, so on your daily selection that you will be given races to trade and all you do is put a back bet on the favourite just before race start?

can i also ask why its not showing any indiviudal trades on the software results?

Nick Allan

@philip-brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Martin's Back the Favourite 3.0

Very interesting Philip, looks very solid, I've done a deep dive and there's no real day of the week that's poor, the drawdowns are acceptable, if you look at the last six months in particular results have been very strong. Can I ask are you currently testing this strategy? and what kind of results are you getting? are they similar to the results that you're getting with the software? I take it the premise behind the strategy is exactly the same as the first Martin backed the favourite, so on your daily selection that you will be given races to trade and all you do is put a back bet on the favourite just before race start?

John Folan

Slim pickings today!! As a side note, I do keep the course filters under review as I think long term they won't be needed. I would rather be adding stuff in though than taking it away so better to err on the side of caution. Fairyhouse for example, has moved into profitable territory. As long as that continues, I will eventually add it in.

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

John Folan

@paul-keighley said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

None from me today as I don’t do them on a Saturday. Good luck if you do.

Do you do no horse trading whatsoever on a Saturday or just the short odds lays? Are all types of trades significantly worse on Saturdays in your opinion?

I do no scalping and no short odds lays. Saturdays are a day for backing favourites which is profitable(posted a few weeks back). The short odds lays are profitable on a Saturday but only to the tune of 6-8 points since March 21. So not really worth it.

I still lay beaten favourites on a Saturday and still back the flat pace if there are any as the software shows those are ok.

Hope that helps.

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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

None from me today as I don’t do them on a Saturday. Good luck if you do.

Do you do no horse trading whatsoever on a Saturday or just the short odds lays? Are all types of trades significantly worse on Saturdays in your opinion?

John Folan

None from me today as I don’t do them on a Saturday. Good luck if you do.

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's C&D winners

Rules: Back between 2-7 as close to official start as you can

02/12/2022 12:40 Sandown Step Back -1
~~02/12/2022 14:45 Sedgefield Road Warrior~~
~~02/12/2022 18:00 Dundalk Pierre Lapin~~
~~02/12/2022 18:30 Dundalk Zonik~~
02/12/2022 18:45 Newcastle After John +3.43
~~02/12/2022 19:15 Newcastle Huraiz~~

Running total -3
Software -4

Finally got a winner!

Bit annoying that the software picked up another 2 winners that didn't make the initial selection, but that's another example of why horse racing is difficult as a set and forget strategy.

Running total: -.57
Software: +3.06

Today's qualifiers
2022-12-03 14:12 Chepstow Bells Of Peterboro

There’s probably a way to get Bfbot as close as you like. If you have a one qualifier rule you can load them all on and then have a condition to only back if number of selections =1.

Just run your system without the 1 qualifier rule. (Set it up as a separate version as I mentioned yesterday). Will get you a lot closer.

Then the bot can do the work.

Dan MacKinnon

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's C&D winners

Rules: Back between 2-7 as close to official start as you can

02/12/2022 12:40 Sandown Step Back -1
~~02/12/2022 14:45 Sedgefield Road Warrior~~
~~02/12/2022 18:00 Dundalk Pierre Lapin~~
~~02/12/2022 18:30 Dundalk Zonik~~
02/12/2022 18:45 Newcastle After John +3.43
~~02/12/2022 19:15 Newcastle Huraiz~~

Running total -3
Software -4

Finally got a winner!

Bit annoying that the software picked up another 2 winners that didn't make the initial selection, but that's another example of why horse racing is difficult as a set and forget strategy.

Running total: -.57
Software: +3.06

Today's qualifiers
2022-12-03 14:12 Chepstow Bells Of Peterboro

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I have been trading a version of Martins lay the Beaten Fav, which has excluded A/W

0_1670034481120_Lay the Fav.png

After a promising start, it has since been spluttering along. I didn't included course filters, hoping it would still be quite robust, but after seeing Dan's version, those numbers are too good to ignore. I 'll keep following this, but I'm going to the dark side and using Dan's course filters

My laying Held Up Horses took a bit of a hit this month...Still in the green though...

0_1670035184230_Held up Nov.png

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@john-folan cheers mate

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@angus-macleod thanks mate

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

I actually had four selections hit yesterday. The ones extra were borderline on the odds. Anyway, another 0.4 points loss sadly.

3/4 today

Martin

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

It’s been amateur hour today!

I put a selection on which wasn’t on my filter and lost. Then I just realised I messed about with one of my bots yesterday and had it set to back instead of lay so cost myself there too!

Overall -12pts for being stupid. I’ll put that down as an idiot tax.

The silver lining is that the lay bot worked perfectly (just shame it backed the selection instead)

Good news is it probably won't happen again, as it's in your head now!

John Folan

@robert-cooke said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan thanks John . I'm not using bots at the moment, but I'll remember this for when i do. How do I check if the horses DSLR qualifies.

Quickest way is to look on the racecards on the btc software.

Angus Macleod

@robert-cooke All I do mate is just open up the runner list for the race itself and then you can see the number in the DSLR column. If its between 3-200 its all good

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@john-folan thanks John . I'm not using bots at the moment, but I'll remember this for when i do. How do I check if the horses DSLR qualifies.

Dan MacKinnon

It’s been amateur hour today!

I put a selection on which wasn’t on my filter and lost. Then I just realised I messed about with one of my bots yesterday and had it set to back instead of lay so cost myself there too!

Overall -12pts for being stupid. I’ll put that down as an idiot tax.

The silver lining is that the lay bot worked perfectly (just shame it backed the selection instead)

Angus Macleod

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Lee-Colvin @Martin @Angus-Macleod @Robert-Cooke
Just checked my bots. The one on the Mega thread against the one I'm using. They are the same, bar the fact I am not trading on Saturdays as just not worth it.

I 'don't however take the qualifiers off there. I run a separate version (I've called qualifiers) with runner numbers and DSLR removed. These are then filtered in my bot as

Won't know the runner numbers until the race.

Won't know the DSLR of the favourite (because that might change) until the race.

That's why I am getting races as qualifiers on certain races, and you aren't. I'm ignoring those filters and letting the bot sort it out as they are unknown variables in the morning.

I thought I was losing the plot last night lol.

I actually meant to mention this to people before. Every strategy I have has two versions.

Qualifiers

Results.

Qualifiers is exactly the same as Results but with variables that can change on the day removed. (Runner Numbers, DSLR if I am laying a favourite and not a specific horse. Number of Qualifiers, etc). I then rely on my bot to filter these out.

Probably a practice everyone should follow as it stops Adam's favourite query

Cheers for the explanation mate I was properly confused about how I was "missing" certain selections but it makes sense now . Appreciate the daily posts of your selections too for added simplicity fantastic effort as usual

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan oh yeah. The good thing about the software is you can get an idea of winning/ losing streaks.

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon the thing with short odds is losing trades seem to come in clusters. Happily so do wins lol