What to bet for thickos!
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So, I upgraded to horse racing a week ago and I've been working my way thru the videos, which has been making my head hurt a lot. I'm not a clever fella and I was hoping that the software would help me to be a better trader on horses. But, after going thru all of the training videos, I'm still no wiser. Its just a lot of figures and stats, which is making me wonder that if a horse is made the favourite then how come that 100/1 shot keeps shooting up from the back every few races? Given that nothing is a sure thing, how much of an indicator of a winning trade is the condition of the ground, the track or if the horse has had a pint of Red Bull? To be fair, I'm still working my way thru the software but all I really want to know is
- What horse to trade
- What strategy to use.
Football trading was easy. I'd look in my email box and I'd get an email and it would tell me what team and what the gameplan was. Seems horse racing needs me to buy a white lab coat and a degree in quantum physics.
I'm sure i'm missing something here, after all its just been a week but I'm quickly running out of Paracetamol to ease my aching head.
Somebody please put me right here.
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@Julian-Drake-clarke @Fraser-cord
Can you watch these two videos I just made for building a strategy and let me know if it helps you grasp how to use the software?
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I think this is it! You’ve nailed the steps perfectly!
Close the gap then
Pick apart a strategy that’s working, looking at why they picked that and question it
Then start learning about the software
Then build your own based on what you’ve seen and your own ideas
I wonder if we can facilitate this somehow, maybe a guided session once a month where we follow this kind of format.
Would would you think to that?
@steve-fletcher-0 said in What to bet for thickos!:
What is it they usually say when you sign up for any investing products "past performance is no guarantee of future returns"
What the software does allow though is testing and experimenting with real world historical data.
I'm in the same boat as recent upgraded to the horse racing side of things and agree its a learning curve.
I think it helps to understand the strategies if you are using someone else's. Go through the rules and take them apart to try to understand what they are trying achieve
From there I went about trying to narrow the gap as Ryan explains to get to where I want to be.
Step 1 is beginning learning about automation
Step 2 is picking a new strategy. I know with work I can't be monitoring my computer seconds before the race which is needed for some strategies so instead looked at the pace lay strategy as the pace rating isn't likely to fluctuate in the same way a race favourite can.
This gives me a daily qualifier list where I know the race and horse so can just pop on at race time to lay.So now I have a strategy I can use while I continue learning about automation which seems the next logical step.
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@fraser-cord it doesn’t matter when you can trade you can find an angle that works for you buddy, it’s actually better you know when you are about.
I see so many traders try to build things that don’t work because they can’t follow it properly because they aren’t about.
You know when you are about so can build around that.
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@martin Thanks. I'm available at weekends but my worry is if your only trading on a sat and sun, you wont be following all selections so the outcomes wont be as accurate as taking every selection the software finds.
As a novice on horses, a bit nervous of going in with usual stakes, but il try min over the weekends and see where it takes me.
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@keith-driscoll said in What to bet for thickos!:
A lot of trading edges in the software are based on simple maths. Rather than doing thousands of calculations manually, the software does them in seconds.
Out of over a hundred trading strategies I produced, only one has proven worth following. I dumped so many because some failed when the software was new, others because they can't be automated, and those that failed automation due to bad price matching, non-matching entry/exit points, etc.
Even when software shows you profitable results, you then have to replicate it in the real world. If you're prepared to put in a bit of work, you'll get profits out of it.
What this man says. Plus, the work is half the fun.
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A lot of trading edges in the software are based on simple maths. Rather than doing thousands of calculations manually, the software does them in seconds.
Out of over a hundred trading strategies I produced, only one has proven worth following. I dumped so many because some failed when the software was new, others because they can't be automated, and those that failed automation due to bad price matching, non-matching entry/exit points, etc.
Even when software shows you profitable results, you then have to replicate it in the real world. If you're prepared to put in a bit of work, you'll get profits out of it.
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@julian-drake-clarke said in What to bet for thickos!:
I think that I may have jumped on the software assuming it would give me a trading edge
This is exactly what it's for
Imagine trawling through pages of RacingPost results, downloading Betfair historical data and cross-referencing them to see what value there is in laying horses with a pace rating of 7, 20 days since they last ran on heavy ground, etc etc. The software lets you do that in a few clicks.Only a very small percentage of the market has easy access to that information (i.e. you guys). It doesn't mean every idea you have will be profitable, but it lets you sort the wheat from the chaff quicker than anyone else can.
Plus having reverse engineered a few competitors' pace ratings, ours are the best, even if I do say so myself
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@julian-drake-clarke you can use it to gain an edge, just a case of a bit of learning. There are lots of presets being used to make money, what’s stopping you using those at least as a foundation? I don’t really understand why you are struggling so much.
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@dan-mackinnon Appreciate the clarification. You could be well right, as I'm early to using the software. I think that I may have jumped on the software assuming it would give me a trading edge and result in a profitable addition to my trading portfolio. I'm going to give it a few weeks, see if I can make anything of how to make it work. I'm sure that there are members that are making a good living from utilizing the software and I need to be a bit more patient before adding myself to that list.
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What is it they usually say when you sign up for any investing products "past performance is no guarantee of future returns"
What the software does allow though is testing and experimenting with real world historical data.
I'm in the same boat as recent upgraded to the horse racing side of things and agree its a learning curve.
I think it helps to understand the strategies if you are using someone else's. Go through the rules and take them apart to try to understand what they are trying achieve
From there I went about trying to narrow the gap as Ryan explains to get to where I want to be.
Step 1 is beginning learning about automation
Step 2 is picking a new strategy. I know with work I can't be monitoring my computer seconds before the race which is needed for some strategies so instead looked at the pace lay strategy as the pace rating isn't likely to fluctuate in the same way a race favourite can.
This gives me a daily qualifier list where I know the race and horse so can just pop on at race time to lay.So now I have a strategy I can use while I continue learning about automation which seems the next logical step.
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Just to give some short answers to some of the things you asked:
How reliable is past performance of a horse going to be an indicator of future results?
There are obviously no guarantees because there are lots of factors, but it's definitely a fact that certain horses like to run races in certain ways and favour different grounds, courses, etc. The software lets you find those opportunities and see exactly how much you would have won/lost by trading those horses over the last couple of years.
Why is this better than, for example, Bethbet or Winningmore or any of the others
"Better" is subjective. It depends what you're looking for. The software isn't intended to spoonfeed you your trades without having to think about them; it's intended to let you test your ideas and find value for yourself. As far as I know, neither of the mentioned services allow you backtest your own ideas.
Its just a lot of figures and stats, which is making me wonder that if a horse is made the favourite then how come that 100/1 shot keeps shooting up from the back every few races?
Partly because there are lots of different variables and partly because the market is a collection of people's opinions and often they are wrong. Going against the market and finding an angle that not many people know about is often the way to make money. The software lets you test out those different variables and find those angles.
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@martin the trouble is, horse racing markets don’t develop until closer to the race so it’s hard to make a set and forget strategy.
The software definitely is the best on the market, but it’s not a magic wand. For example, you could have the best tennis software on the market but unless I’m going to sit down and follow every first set winner it’s not going to work for me.
I think a lot of this might become apparent when the football software comes out and traders can compare like for like. Right now this is something unique to itself so a bit hard to explain
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@dan-mackinnon this is what we are working hard to solve, like do we put it down to people not watching the videos properly? or is there something we can do to make it easier to learn, without losing what we want the most, the most powerful horse software on the market!
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@julian-drake-clarke I think you might have misunderstood the purpose of the software. It’s to backtest strategies rather than generate selections.
This is where it differs from the football because you can’t backtest them (yet) so have to look forward with your results.
You mentioned it before about needing to be a scientist and in fairness you’re not far off! You have to approach the software with the mindset “if I had done this thing repeatedly over the past 18 months what would have happened?”. To make things more confusing, just because you have the results that it happened doesn’t guarantee it will happen again!
I get where you’re coming from as it is a bit overwhelming but I don’t think there’s an easy way around it. I know a few people have asked me on my thread and I tried to explain it there.
Good luck pal!
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@fraser-cord I’ve asked @Adam to do set times in the software and he’s working on it for us
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@julian-drake-clarke have you looked at the preset strategies?
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@martin It's not so much a tipping service that I'm looking for, no more than I get from the daily football trading emails. It's a bit more than the 'What' and more the 'Why'. If I put a strategy together, why is this horse on soft ground better than if it was on a firmer track or how much does the age of the horse make a difference. If he's won the last 3 races over the same distance by 5 furlongs at this track and the other contenders are all novices, I can see that. It's much more difficult when a whole assortment of factors come into play and its more about 'which strategy' rather than who is going to win. Off the top of my head something like...
WHICH HORSE Donkey Dudly
WHAT STRATEGY Dob
WHY Came second in the last 2 races at Newmarket and
was seen being fed a pint of Red Bull into his feed
bag. Has the potential of coming in first but
certainly in the front 3 places in this race.Anything more than this is just commentary
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Im piggybacking on @Julian-Drake-clarke's toes here but also in a similar place @Martin
I have a good grasp of horses, been doing match betting on them for years. I know to best odds for horses is usually close to the off which can be time consuming if you want a life (and work full time).
I've been through the videos and feel i have a good grasp of the software, just looking for a couple of simple strategies to start with. For example, I started my football trading with Martins 1.5 backs and Tomasz 1.5 lays, then found my feet from there.
Also I appreciate automation will truely unlock this, but im not quite at that stage yet so looking at strategies I could set in the morning before work for example.I see there are some on the mega thread, just not sure if they would suit my circumstances.Any advice would be a big help.
