The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@greg-mitchell Yep I make you right there. Favourites can change upto the off. If you want to get closer the bets need to be going on as close to the race as possible.
As for my short odd lays, I'm getting pretty much an exact match with the software now. That's fully automated. My only difference lately had been down to Dundalk lays not placing. But that was the stupid country filter i had in BF Bot which I've now removed from as it wasn't needed. I know this is down to slight price differences and the aforementioned Dundalk issue.
August Me -8 Software -7
September Me - +8 Software +4
October Me +1 Software -1
November so far Me +8 Software +10. -
@nick-allan When using a strategy that involves the Favourite, you shouldn't pay much attention to the actual selection, because the favourite can often change right up until the off. So placing a trade on a named selection at 9am, if the favourite changes before the off, you actually haven't followed the strategy.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@adam Sorry i cant place spreadsheet examples in the chat do ill need to do it on here if i can, appologies all for the long thread
OK so I don't know how to go around explaining this so bear with me and I will do my best to explain it and show you in excel spreadsheets what I mean to back up what I'm saying.
So I'm gonna take a strategy and show you an example this is John Battens back maidens fav strategy. Now every morning you get the selections for this strategy he is an example of the last week:
and every night what I would do is I would record the winners and losers as shown here:
so the colours are as follows, the orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). Hopefully I'm making sense at this point.
So when you extract the individual trades from the results section in the strategy builder section, you get the following:
and the colours are exactly the same, orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). As an FYI I use Race start time to use – official as these trades are placed before the race start.
So my question is why are they so different? Just to explain as well that I trade this particular strategy first thing in the morning so I get the selections up and I place a back bet at say 9 AM, there is no automation involved. I do have other strategies where automation is involved and even they are showing skewed results which I'm more than happy provide you with examples for Martins pace lays and John short odds strategies.Nick, I haven't looked at them all, but if you take the 12:50 Lingfield on the 12th Nov. When you run the daily selections in the morning, Shadow of War was favourite, at the off it wasn't, A Gift of Love was, hence Shadow appears on your first list but not on the 2nd and vice versa for A Gift of Love
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@adam Sorry i cant place spreadsheet examples in the chat do ill need to do it on here if i can, appologies all for the long thread
OK so I don't know how to go around explaining this so bear with me and I will do my best to explain it and show you in excel spreadsheets what I mean to back up what I'm saying.
So I'm gonna take a strategy and show you an example this is John Battens back maidens fav strategy. Now every morning you get the selections for this strategy he is an example of the last week:and every night what I would do is I would record the winners and losers as shown here:
so the colours are as follows, the orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). Hopefully I'm making sense at this point.
So when you extract the individual trades from the results section in the strategy builder section, you get the following:
and the colours are exactly the same, orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). As an FYI I use Race start time to use – official as these trades are placed before the race start.
So my question is why are they so different? Just to explain as well that I trade this particular strategy first thing in the morning so I get the selections up and I place a back bet at say 9 AM, there is no automation involved. I do have other strategies where automation is involved and even they are showing skewed results which I'm more than happy provide you with examples for Martins pace lays and John short odds strategies. -
Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
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I'm obviously not very busy working this week, a couple of little tinkers I've been working on. Results to a £1 Stake.
0_1668767694223_Lay Draw Bias.json
0_1668767728178_Back Top Weight.json
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@nick-allan There are lots of reasons why the potential trades presented in advance could differ from what was actually traded. Usually it will be because the prices are not known in advance and the price conditions didn't end up being met even though the other rules were.
There are also factors that can change before the race, such as number of runners or the going.
I'd need to see some examples to be able to give you any specific info. You can PM me the links to the spreadsheets and tell me which selections you're unsure about if you like. For future reference you can also add attachments when logging a new support ticket on the Asana form.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan maybe also upload the strategy. Someone might spot something
its not the strategy its the results (its actually 3 startegies) i can try and explain it but its all the excel examples i would have to add to the tread to show what is happening it would be a very big tread, ill give it a try
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@john-folan thanks john
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@nick-allan maybe also upload the strategy. Someone might spot something
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Is there anywhere where you can ask direct questions about the software perhaps with Adam directly? I noticed there is nothing on the QandA section. I’ve done a deep dive looking at software results and my results based on the selections that the software provides each morning. Now to be honest some strategies showed completely different results, which I can't understand why? I need to get some advice as i don’t understand if the filters provides selections and they meet the trade criteria at race start why they are not in the software results? does anyone know if you can message Adam directly?
Use Asana on the horse software. It’s the quickest way. Make sure you include which strategy is giving you problems.
I’ll tag @Adam in this as well. Normally I flag stuff in Asana and he tells me what I’ve done or what I’m reading wrong.
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Is there anywhere where you can ask direct questions about the software perhaps with Adam directly? I noticed there is nothing on the QandA section. I’ve done a deep dive looking at software results and my results based on the selections that the software provides each morning. Now to be honest some strategies showed completely different results, which I can't understand why? I need to get some advice as i don’t understand if the filters provides selections and they meet the trade criteria at race start why they are not in the software results? does anyone know if you can message Adam directly?
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.
I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900
Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got
But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.
This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.
The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!
Now stick that liability on a compounding and realise that it’s the way forward
Hey John, can you explain a bit further what you mean about "Stick that liability on a compounding" What i do at the moment in compound at the end of the month. So say for example I have a £100 bank and I risk 1% per trade or £1, now at the end of the month if I've made 10 pounds or ten points I would add that too the bank and I would now have £110 pounds so 1% of that is £1.10 per trade is that what you mean by compounding? because that's how I understand it? It might be different for compounding liability and in which case if you've got any valuable learning resources that you could make me aware of I’d be very grateful.
Pretty much nailed it. If my liability per bet is 1% of a £100 bank. It wins a trade then the next one is 1% of the new bank total.
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@nick-allan it seems like you've been hit by the same Pace Lay losses I've had today. Because one of them was fairly hefty it's crashed my week from being profitable to being at a loss.
I've been comparing my results each day with the software, so far it's the same on both. I'm going to carry on with 1% stake, but from next month I might switch to 3% liability. I think the annoying fact is the software does show losing months but unfortunately we can't tell which ones those will be. We've had 2 losing trades today but the LLR is 3 consecutive trades which could be quite hard to handle. It might be worth having a look at the maximum drawdown as that'll show how much your bank gets reduced. I think the Pace Lays are around 20%, so say you had £500 bank at some point it could get cut down to £400.
If you go into your BF Betting History you can go back 3 months I think. Using that information you could cross-check your results with the software and see where it's not matching up. It could be odds or selections that are causing you trouble which might be a bot issue?
Finally, with compounding you're right. The liability will go up or down in line with your bank. It does mean that some of the more consistent wins on horses with bigger odds get reduced down to allow for the liability. For example, laying a horse at 15 to win £1 means your liability is £14. If your liability was £1 you'll win 7p
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Hi Martin,
I have made a revision to your strategy Martin | LAY | LAST TIME WINNERS
Can you tell me what you think?Many thanks
Philip Brogan
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan @Dan-MacKinnon are any of your strategies Lay ones, and if so do you use 1% as Stake or Liability? Just wondering.
I use 1% stake, however I'm looking at switching to liability. Stake will give you better returns but liability is better for the nerves!
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.
I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900
Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got
But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.
This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.
The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!
Now stick that liability on a compounding and realise that it’s the way forward
Hey John, can you explain a bit further what you mean about "Stick that liability on a compounding" What i do at the moment in compound at the end of the month. So say for example I have a £100 bank and I risk 1% per trade or £1, now at the end of the month if I've made 10 pounds or ten points I would add that too the bank and I would now have £110 pounds so 1% of that is £1.10 per trade is that what you mean by compounding? because that's how I understand it? It might be different for compounding liability and in which case if you've got any valuable learning resources that you could make me aware of I’d be very grateful.
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan Does your bot, pick the favourite or do you nominate the horse picked by the software, which may not be favourite at the off?
it picks the fav in the race not the selection specified as per johns instructions
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan I do have other strategies that I use, so if one of Martins Pace Lays came up on a Back Strategy (for example) I wouldn't do it, that may be the reason for the difference.
Plus there have been two successful Lay Paces today and I didn't do Grace Angel as I know the owner and they said it was gonna win. But guess thats irrelevant.
Out of interest I have just run the Back Fav (Mon, Tue, Sat) on the software and restricted the dates to from the 1st November and it is showing 14pts profit, perhaps you need to check the differences between that and your -24pts.
its not grace angel thats killed it for me today its the 14:38 at southwell fine wine, my bot fired 10 secs before the race start and it was 9.0 -
@nick-allan Does your bot, pick the favourite or do you nominate the horse picked by the software, which may not be favourite at the off?
