Football Profitable Members Strategies
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I want to create a thread for the shared trading filters and see if we can get them retested to see if they still work. Especially as they are sent out in the daily email.
If you have tracked any of the results please comment or let me know
They are currently listed here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies
New testing sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1baRoxh9Jup5FkTKptcwgueSHxymonRerebbq24s1FD8/edit?usp=sharingOld testing sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cpqyy6ijhtHNRs_7sSVBMVIrWEhmAuLFXVLnN51DUFs/edit?usp=sharing
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@martin Yes there may be a separate strategy that can be found from that data, but I'm still very confused on the strike rate being 88% on LTD. It doesn't make sense to me that the strike rate is being marked as positive just from there being a goal.
Maybe I am wrong, I was under the impression that strike rate = winning bet. Does it in fact mean not 0 - 0, as this would make more sense, as, like I explained previously, there are many games on the results sheet with 1 marked by strike rate where there was no opportunity to take a profit.
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@conor-medlyn wonder if there is a way of implementing a goal in the first 70mins as a strategy? Given the strike rate.
Also seems to be a high amount of split stake games that have a goal before 30mins, May be an angle there?
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@martin But the Betgreen LTD, the strike rate is 88 percent but the results are being marked as wins if there is any goal at all before 70 mins, but from my experience doing some of the games that have come through, there are many games where there is a goal before 70 but there is no opportunity for a win, ( 1 - 1 with underdog scoring first, and 0 - 1).
For example, the Bradford vs Hartlepool recently was marked as a win on strike rate, but there was no opportunity for a profit in the game. Underdog scored first and it was 1 - 1 in 70th min, a loss of 65% could be taken in 70th min, or best case scenario a loss of around 35% after underdog retook lead in 72nd min. Game ended 2 - 2
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@conor-medlyn Betgreen LTD is a high strike rate low return strategy, so be aware of that as when there is no goal the loss can be high. It's an old strategy (before even I joined) that has done well but you have to be ready for some bad moments and I would say it's a tough strategy for a lot of people to stick with, for that reason.
Let me know how the paper trade goes, I would also like some idea of ROI etc.
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I'm going to start paper trading the over 1.5 split stake and Betgreen LTD strategies. Would following the basic rules of the strategy and doing this on the selections that come through the filters be enough to put you in profit, or would something further be required.
I'm aware that you can improve strategies through data collection but I was wandering how effective the base strategies are. Also does anyone whose been following them long term have a heads up of the ROI of these two, with the investment being the total staked.
Also I have a question about the strike rate particularly on the LTD strategy, I heard in a BTC video that the Betgreen LTD strike rate is being marked as a win purely based on if there is any goals scored before 70 mins, yet there is surely loads of times that the game is 0 - 1 or 1 - 1 at 70 mins but the bet has failed, this tells me that in reality this strategy strike rate is lower than 88%. Anyone have an explanation or ideas on these? Thanks
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@joe-beeston said in Football Profitable Members Strategies:
Hi,
Just noticed on the profitable members filters that there 2 for the over 1.5 Ryan Split Stake. They do return different results though. Any idea which is the one to use?
Ryan's split stake is the latest version
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Hi,
Just noticed on the profitable members filters that there 2 for the over 1.5 Ryan Split Stake. They do return different results though. Any idea which is the one to use?
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@joe-beeston the one I email out, yes that’s the one!
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@Martin - Just double checking, the SHG filter that is doing so well recently, is that the Gary's SHG filter currently on the profitable members filter?
Thanks
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@mick-mcmahon no these things are so hit and miss in terms of software development time as we found out with the horse racing
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@martin said in Football Trading - Profitable Members Filters Testing - Community Collaboration:
@maciej-kaczmarek I trade manually but need to learn more about automation!
I'm waiting for back testing software to get the odds put in, I can't track every game for all of these systems unfortunately as I need the in play odds throughout the game.
Hi @Martin Is there an ETA on the footy back testing?
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@maciej-kaczmarek I trade manually but need to learn more about automation!
I'm waiting for back testing software to get the odds put in, I can't track every game for all of these systems unfortunately as I need the in play odds throughout the game.
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Hi Martin,
do you trade those manually or use a software to automate the trading?
Also most tabs include a strike rate, but not a target strike rate or a loss/profit column. Why is that? -
i will update the sheet after the weekend and i will attach the pivot results in way i use it for every strategy on the sheet and if people want to use it as an example it might prove useful
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@chris-osborne maybe having very basic knowledge is helping me then
i have to admit ive had no problem but i am trying to keep it as simple as i can -
To say Pivot tables are not my favourite tool to use in Excel would be an understatement they are too restrictive and not Dynamic at all but they do have a purpose
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@liam-willis Cheers
I think I will try and spend some time looking at that then. More spreadsheet knowledge can only be a good thing
