The BTC Football Trading Thread
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I don't know how you guys make a living at this! My filter threw up 10 games today: I discarded 4 and traded 6. Two won but hadn't been matched, 3 won and had been matched, and 1 lost which took me back to zero again - 2 days in a row. Very boring.
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Did betfair crash around 14:00 today?
I have no archive odds for the Czech league at all??
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For tomorrow - Lay Under 1.5:
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin so you are going to be trading the lower leagues over the world cup then martin?
If on my filters yes
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5:
The first is in. 3 to go!!!
2 down.......2 to go
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No idea what "right data" means. Either something is data for your system or it isn't.
You simply collect data, enter it into the table in the link and away you go. This will tell you if your system produces results unlikely to be due to chance. There is nothing else to "get".
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@stuart-capstick yeah sorry still dont get it, ive collected data from 100's of live and paper trades and to be honest still none the wiser with some strategies, and there is the issue are you collecting the right data? The monte carlo system is a great system but incredibily complex, id stuggle to get my mind around that. I understand that varainace and drawdowns are a part of any system but i have to say october has got to be the worst drawdown ive ever seen, make of that what you want.
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Hi Nick,
No. I'm saying the exact opposite. A high P value= higher probability that results are due to chance. Lower the P value, the n
better.Just paper trade, collect data. Ideally 1,000 is a good size sample. There will always be football to trade.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Posting this again as I hope it will help some.
Lots of people getting worried about whether any downturn is variance, part of the strategy (after all if your strike rate is 90%, that means you lose 10%) or simply a sign that the strategy is a flop.
This calculates the P value (probability that your results are due to random chance alone, rather than your system/strategy) of a set of results.
If backing, it's dead easy. If laying, you'll need to work out the equivalent back odds (1+ (1/lay odds-1)).The lower the p value, the better (ideally 0.1% or lower).
The Monte Carlo Drawdown simulator is simply 10,000 simulations of whatever strategy you enter. The algorithm tells you the likely maximum drawdown, p value etc.
One thing: you'll notice that the fewer results you have, the higher the p value. Doesn't mean your strategy is no good, but that it is difficult to assess with few results whether or not a strategy is down to chance or not.
Finally, even if you have a p value of 0.00001%, you will lose occasionally, there will be runs of losses etc.
https://valuebettingblog.com/drawdown-monte-carlo-simulation-calculator-for-sports-betting/
so are you saying that trading less selections is the way to go? as you are not subjecting yourself to this variance? at the moment im in a conudrum about not trading saturdays, they have not been overly profitable and i think the issue is the amount of trades completed - startgies that may sometimes struggle to find a selection during the week have multiple ones on a saturday.
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@martin so you are going to be trading the lower leagues over the world cup then martin?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5:
The first is in. 3 to go!!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin im tempted to miss the last round of fixtures before the WC and then start again after a couple of weeks. That gives about 8 weeks with little trading! Ill probably just collect any data that comes along and enjoy the world cup!
Each to their own, I will be trading a lot over that period myself.
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@lee-woodman not all Leagues will be stopping although the main Leagues will be
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@martin im tempted to miss the last round of fixtures before the WC and then start again after a couple of weeks. That gives about 8 weeks with little trading! Ill probably just collect any data that comes along and enjoy the world cup!
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Posting this again as I hope it will help some.
Lots of people getting worried about whether any downturn is variance, part of the strategy (after all if your strike rate is 90%, that means you lose 10%) or simply a sign that the strategy is a flop.
This calculates the P value (probability that your results are due to random chance alone, rather than your system/strategy) of a set of results.
If backing, it's dead easy. If laying, you'll need to work out the equivalent back odds (1+ (1/lay odds-1)).The lower the p value, the better (ideally 0.1% or lower).
The Monte Carlo Drawdown simulator is simply 10,000 simulations of whatever strategy you enter. The algorithm tells you the likely maximum drawdown, p value etc.
One thing: you'll notice that the fewer results you have, the higher the p value. Doesn't mean your strategy is no good, but that it is difficult to assess with few results whether or not a strategy is down to chance or not.
Finally, even if you have a p value of 0.00001%, you will lose occasionally, there will be runs of losses etc.
https://valuebettingblog.com/drawdown-monte-carlo-simulation-calculator-for-sports-betting/
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@lee-woodman my plan is not to change much, I'm not convinced players aren't still playing hard for their clubs, maybe I'm naive but even at amatuer level I could never ease off in a match!
I'll give a week or two after world cup before trading big leagues again, let they get back into the swing of things.
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It'd be quite interesting to hear how the pro's plan on trading around the world cup. Not the actual WC itself but the domestic leagues before, during and after.
Players are going to ramp up the 'easing off' to ensure their maximum fitness. Even during the tournament there will be some sporadic selections hitting the filters, although some players in those leagues could be in the WC (even if the country itself isnt) so maybe missing key players becomes an issue. And then afterwards it will take a little time to re-adjust to their domestic teams
Personally im actually considering taking a nearly 2 month break from trading altogether. Its incredibly annoying as i've gained a bit of traction but it could be a bit of a bloodbath for a lot of traders
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Almost at stake resetting point which may not be a bad thing at the moment!
Could just be variance. Sounds like emotions are creeping in here again (hard to tell on text though so I may be wrong).
If you want any help just hit me up on the private coaching
