The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
Going for a SHG in the Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel match. 0-1 at HT
-
@timothy-mo said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Newbie here. How many games do you guys on average, trade, per day? I've been using the members filters options and i can get around under 10 games altogether i think. Is this normal?
If you are confident in your strategies and they make money then the idea is trade as many as you are able, as long as there is not a negative effect on your trading. Mathematically you want to push your edge as much as you are able to.
-
Another thought on this temporary downturn in second-half goals:
If the point of filters is to identify games with second-half goals based on there being second half goals in x% of previous games, wouldn't that filter be self-correcting i.e. if a team goes a few games without second-half goals, wouldn't it just stop showing up in the filters? It's already happened in mine- fewer games from Norway or Sweden were listed last week.
-
Newbie here. How many games do you guys on average, trade, per day? I've been using the members filters options and i can get around under 10 games altogether i think. Is this normal?
-
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan I want to test Dan's LTD over Winter leagues for a few months as it's only been done on Summer leagues.
Also refined some of the strategies that were struggling (BTTS and Over 1.5 Backs) give them a chance for redemption before moving on, got enough very promising ones that I don't really have to hold on to any bad ones.
as a note to this I haven't removed any winter leagues yet as need more data on those, I think that's a theme for me on a lot of these strategies
-
@nick-allan I want to test Dan's LTD over Winter leagues for a few months as it's only been done on Summer leagues.
Also refined some of the strategies that were struggling (BTTS and Over 1.5 Backs) give them a chance for redemption before moving on, got enough very promising ones that I don't really have to hold on to any bad ones.
-
@nick-allan In play stats also seemed favorable - partizan at HT - SOT 7, SofT 10, 5 corners, possession was good and 2/3 of the attacks were dangerous. Same with Liverpool last night. Rough ride. Thinking of paper trading football until next year… I haven’t got enough data to inform tweaks etc
-
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin what do you look for on dan LTD, the filetr is very basic, basically not looking at 0-0 but of cousre any other draw can see a loss so do you look at % of draws in last 5/10 games etc. Can you give me some guidance?
this is what i currently look at:
Home draws % - last 5, less than 20%
Away draws % - last 5, less than 20%
Look at previous head to head record to see if there many drawsbut i think i can look at so much more
I don't change anything on that one, I'd like to get some more testing done on it for sure the variance has been quite high. Decent profit so far though, will have to see if it can handle a bad run if it gets one!
i stopped last month after it went 10 pts down but it did recover. Maybe think about testing it with min stakes when football returns in the new yr as the moment the results are totally skewed, IMO
-
@giorgio im personally feel like dumping football until the new year, i cant believe how bad this month has been,
my SHG strat has fallen off a cliff - even today Partizan vs Napredak, pre game stats 83% shg with ave 1.83 shg between 2 clubs , 6 SOT in second half and nothing
liverpool last night same thing
i cant trust pregame or inplay stats, may as well take the 13 point loss this month and forget about football
i curse this bloody world cup and these winter leagues, i long to go back to the summer!!
-
I also wonder how many of these strategies were tested on these leagues last year for comparison? I defo want to get a full year of data on the strategies I am testing as some of them have struggled since the winter leagues came back, and I don't have enough data on those particular leagues yet.
-
@giorgio definitely noticing a poor second half goal market at the moment to the point it’s putting me off, and also a heavier amount of first half goals it seems. Thought it was just me over thinking it maybe. I don’t know why the whole football world has to completely adjust from standard tried and tested domestic and international format and tradition for one World Cup.
-
we facing an increase number of Fh goals/Unders and poor Second half goals.
must be connected to teams playing every 3 days between cups and league.
Injuires worries makes players not giving 100% believe as world cup not so far from now.was expecting an unusual season and actually it is.
as trader we need to follow the market and go agaist goals at the moment(personally I trade more match odds than over market atm)feel we should work more on under strategy
any thought?
-
Kind of missing the summer leagues! Glad I traded out of the Liverpool match early….
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Going for a SHG in the Real Sociedad v Mallorca match. 1-0 at HT
That disallowed goal for Mallorca was a f*****g disgrace
-
Going for a SHG in the Real Sociedad v Mallorca match. 1-0 at HT
-
@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin what do you look for on dan LTD, the filetr is very basic, basically not looking at 0-0 but of cousre any other draw can see a loss so do you look at % of draws in last 5/10 games etc. Can you give me some guidance?
this is what i currently look at:
Home draws % - last 5, less than 20%
Away draws % - last 5, less than 20%
Look at previous head to head record to see if there many drawsbut i think i can look at so much more
I don't change anything on that one, I'd like to get some more testing done on it for sure the variance has been quite high. Decent profit so far though, will have to see if it can handle a bad run if it gets one!
-
@martin what do you look for on dan LTD, the filetr is very basic, basically not looking at 0-0 but of cousre any other draw can see a loss so do you look at % of draws in last 5/10 games etc. Can you give me some guidance?
this is what i currently look at:
Home draws % - last 5, less than 20%
Away draws % - last 5, less than 20%
Look at previous head to head record to see if there many drawsbut i think i can look at so much more
-
@lee-woodman crazy thing is lee that sweden has been bad but norway is doing well for me, of course different strategies etc. I was -16 on saturday, today ive poullee half that back so hopefully octoberr wont be as bad, i had a great sept +17pt so it is swings and roundabouts. what ive staretd doing is the selctions that dont meet all my criteria im betting half stakes and those secletions are in profit. Its trading i guess and variance of course, although i agree with martin about the seden and noirway being cold and that poss having an effect
-
@stuart-wallace got any tips then
