The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 Jonkopings Sodra

Akiva Anderson

Man City to beat Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday was 1.92. Now 1.88. I expect the price to come down again

Martin

@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Napoli at 32 to win Champions League looks interesting to me, very strong start to the season and at that price don't need more than a couple of quid on to make good money if they make Quarter-Finals or beyond

price should drop if they get out of the group ? top so should get a decent draw for a quick scalp maybe

not sure but I think they look like real dark horses this year 32 is too high, would have them 20 or below

Richard Latimer

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Good to see, it was starting to come across to me anyway that you we're close to getting back into old habits of constantly changing your criteria - lets see what happens over the next couple of weeks, its been strange lately.

No, I keep tracking stuff now until it clearly becomes unprofitable. I simply mean I analyse everything and this may well have slipped past me.

I'll update on my findings when I'm done which may be beneficial to others.

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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Napoli at 32 to win Champions League looks interesting to me, very strong start to the season and at that price don't need more than a couple of quid on to make good money if they make Quarter-Finals or beyond

price should drop if they get out of the group ? top so should get a decent draw for a quick scalp maybe

Martin

Napoli at 32 to win Champions League looks interesting to me, very strong start to the season and at that price don't need more than a couple of quid on to make good money if they make Quarter-Finals or beyond.

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@richard-latimer Good to see, it was starting to come across to me anyway that you we're close to getting back into old habits of constantly changing your criteria - lets see what happens over the next couple of weeks, its been strange lately.

Richard Latimer

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I would paper trade for a couple of weeks or reduce your stakes, the data is there but we're all seeing strange results at the minute don't rush into making drastic changes if something has been working.

Norway 1 like most second divisions - Bundesliga 2 and Championship in particular, has been garbage most of this season Eliteserien on the other hand is an ATM for me but we're all looking for different things.

Even the best looking games data wise can be a losing trade.

No kneejerk reactions here. Over 1.5 percentages are the last criteria I'm putting in. Like always I'll follow the data as long as it seems logical.

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@richard-latimer I would paper trade for a couple of weeks or reduce your stakes, the data is there but we're all seeing strange results at the minute don't rush into making drastic changes if something has been working.

Norway 1 like most second divisions - Bundesliga 2 and Championship in particular, has been garbage most of this season Eliteserien on the other hand is an ATM for me but we're all looking for different things.

Even the best looking games data wise can be a losing trade.

Richard Latimer

I may have found one other crucial factor and it's worth looking out for if anyone needs goals. I'm always preaching the numbers need to be big enough but not too big. If overall over 1.5 is higher than 90% this is scarce and seems too high from my results. If home over 1.5 is 100% this may be poor but still investigating.

Richard Latimer

@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

hangover from the weekend continues, another dreaful day, strong pre match and inplay stats just arent turning into results

on the plus side the u3.5 goal strat i follow is flying

The Under 3.5 system I'm working on has 11.42 pts from 14 winning trades and just 1 loss in Oct. Don't feel that ones ready yet though!

Richard Latimer

I should also say that even if something is in range across all criteria......if it's on the edge of more than 1 I won't do it. Tonights had daylight either side on all criteria......

Richard Latimer

Even the reliable old Norwegians couldn't score more than 1 in Asane or a 2nd half goal at all. Everything points to this just being a dreadful last couple of weeks for goals in the games you expect many goals.

Take tonights:

0_1665429518788_72724708-59eb-434c-91de-e75032f232d3-image.png

3.05 ave goals
2.1 ave goals scored by home team (drew a blank - I don't go mega high as previous results have shown too high is just as bad as too low and the odds aren't favourable)
1.2 ave goals scored by away team (they chip in and to be fair they did score)
1.2 ave goals conceded by home team - they conceded so I guess job done)
1.4 ave goals conceded by away team - Not tonight

Also tracking all 4 of these main criteria together I've been able to see that if 4, 3 or 2 of the criteria reach or breach certain low or high numbers then selections are scarce and and I don't like scarce when trying to see if something is going to skew the numbers negatively but very rarely in a positive way.

Next........over 1.5 percentages last 10 games. Home was 100% and away 80%
H2H over 1.5 also 80% last 10 games

Next stat - last under came 3 games ago in the h2h (this has so far proven to be irrelevant although I don't play a losing 2 streak)
No 0-0 in h2h

Next 2 stats @ 3.30 & 2.8 are a combination of Home/Away scored then Home/Away Conceded.
Then it's a combination of all 4 criteria @ 6.10 and finally a combination of the 4 criteria plus ave goals scored @ 9.15

Then I combine home scored with away conceded @ 3.5, away scored with home conceded @ 2.6, home scored and home conceded @ 3.5 plus finally away scored combined with away conceded @ 2.6.

Then when their last 0-0 came. For home they hadn't had one in 10 games, for away they drew 0-0 in last game. This too I have found to be irrelevant unless both teams had recent 0-0's at which point the selections are scarce and leave it open to negative skewing once more. If there is more than 1 0-0 I record when the next was as well. So far 2x 0-0's for one team is an irrelevance.

The next stat is the same but for under 1.5 so if the last under was a 0-0 it can be duplicated. Nothing relevant found here so far.

The final stat is combined over 1.5 percentage for last 10 games.

Now can anybody think of a single thing more I can look at because I'm stumped:man_facepalming_light_skin_tone:

When it's argued that maybe these won't work or need tweaking for the winter leagues I am completly lost because I am looking at the possibility of goals from every angle and if it's out of range on one single criteria I won't touch it!

Point of fact, as bad as my month has been it could have been even worse as Aucas lost last night in Ecuador (reason for not playing it was 2 of the criteria combined of the first 4 main scoring/conceding averages were too high and 2 were too low. Wilstermann last night 1-0 not played as ave away scored was 0.8 and my cutoff is 0.9.

Coleraine 0-0. Not played as combined home/away scored was too high and out of range. These are just in October alone and show the way I rule things out works. Just can't get my head around how many bad results there have been in 10 days!!

Akiva Anderson

Going for a SHG in the Forest v Villa match. 1-1 at HT

Akiva Anderson

Going for a SHG in the Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv match. 0-0 at HT

Richard Latimer

@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@ryan Those MLS games are all the last game of the season aren't they?

I had a team miss a pen in 77th min man for a over 1.5 strategy no look

My under 1.5 strat is flying

I'm beginning to think the goals are now smaller or teams have been instructed they can only shoot twice in each half.

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@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@ryan Those MLS games are all the last game of the season aren't they?

I had a team miss a pen in 77th min man for a over 1.5 strategy no look

My under 1.5 strat is flying

Nick Allan

hangover from the weekend continues, another dreaful day, strong pre match and inplay stats just arent turning into results

on the plus side the u3.5 goal strat i follow is flying

Martin

@richard-latimer same as me! interesting

Richard Latimer

@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@andy-donnelly Sweden wasn’t great for me either, they are near the end of there season may be a factor

For me it's the Winter Leagues that are stuttering!

how much testing have you done on the winter leagues? I'm thinking a lot of my strategies may need 2-3 months on winter leagues to see if they work on them.

It was only the back end of last season so April/May